外資車企在華大舉擴張 面臨產能過剩風險

SHANGHAI — The new $1.3 billion Cadillac factory on the outskirts of Shanghai is a shrine to modern manufacturing, the kind of facility that automakers all over the world dream of building but can seldom afford.

上海——這座位於上海郊區的凱迪拉克新工廠造價達13億美元，是一座現代製造的神殿，全球各地的汽車製造商都夢想修建這樣的工廠，但卻沒有幾家負擔得起它的成本。

Hundreds of robots bend, arch and twist to assemble the body of Cadillac’s new flagship CT6. Lasers seal the car’s lightweight aluminum exterior using techniques that the carmaker, General Motors, has only just introduced in the United States. Yardlong, bright yellow robots like mechanical Alaskan huskies tow five-foot-tall carts of auto parts to the assembly line.

數以百計的機器人彎曲、弓起，扭動着，組裝凱迪拉克新旗艦車型CT6的車身。激光器對車輛的輕質鋁外殼進行密封，這是其製造商通用汽車公司(General Motors)剛剛在美國推出的新技術。一碼長的明黃色機器人好像一隻只機械阿拉斯加哈士奇，把五英尺高、裝着零件的拖車拉到裝配線上。

“It’s more along the lines of aircraft technology than traditional, spot-welded steel bodies,” said Paul Buetow, G.M.’s head of manufacturing in China, as he strode along the assembly line.

“這更像是飛行器技術的生產線，而不是傳統的點焊鋼鐵車身，”通用汽車中國製造部門主管保羅·布托(Paul Buetow)一邊沿着流水線走動一邊說。

The factory is part of an aggressive expansion by automakers in China, the world’s largest market for new cars and the industry’s brightest hope for the last 15 years. But the country’s economy is now cooling, which could leave carmakers with too many factories and not enough buyers.

通用汽車在中國積極進行擴張，這個工廠是其部分成果。中國是全球最大的新車市場，也是未來15年裏這個行業最大的希望。但中國經濟正在降溫，擁有太多工廠的汽車製造商可能不會有足夠多的購車者。

G.M. will open a second, $1 billion factory in Wuhan next year. G.M.’s main rival in the Chinese market, Volkswagen, plans to open large assembly plants next year alongside its existing factories in the cities of Foshan, Ningbo and Yizheng and build one in Qingdao by 2018. Hyundai plans to complete a factory south of Beijing by October and another in Chongqing next year, while Chinese automakers like Great Wall and Changan are aggressively adding capacity.

通用汽車的第二家十億美元級工廠明年將在武漢開工。通用汽車在中國市場的主要競爭對手大衆汽車(Volkswagen)計劃明年在佛山、寧波、儀徵的老廠旁邊啓動大型裝配廠，2018年之前在青島修建一家新工廠。現代汽車(Hyundai)計劃今年10月之前在北京南部建成一家新的工廠，明年在重慶建成另外一家。而長城、長安等中國本土汽車製造商也正在積極擴大產能。

The research firm Sanford Bernstein estimates that auto manufacturing capacity in China will rise 22 percent over the next two years, bringing it to 28.8 million cars, minivans and sport utility vehicles annually. That is almost equal to the American and European markets combined, and greater than even the most optimistic forecasts: that sales in China will reach about 25 million next year.

據調研公司桑福德·伯恩斯坦(Sanford Bernstein)估計，在未來兩年內，中國汽車產能將增長22%，每年可生產2880萬輛轎車、小型貨車和運動型多功能車。這幾乎相當於美國和歐洲市場的總和，超過即便是最樂觀的預測：中國明年的汽車銷量將達到2500萬輛左右。

Automakers are expanding at a time when China’s economic growth has slowed to its lowest level in more than a quarter-century. China is closing coal mines across the country and plans to shutter steel mills. Exports are falling. Many Chinese cities are dotted with empty apartment buildings. Worried about pollution and traffic jams, China’s wealthiest metropolises have begun limiting the number of new cars that may be registered.

汽車製造商擴大產能之際，正逢中國經濟增長放緩至20多年來的最低點。中國各地都在關閉煤礦，還計劃關停鋼廠。出口正在下滑。很多中國城市都點綴着空蕩蕩的公寓樓。由於擔心污染和交通擁堵，中國最富裕的超級大城市已經開始限制可以上牌照的新車數量。

On the surface, auto sales in China seem strong. More Chinese families can afford cars and are flocking to showrooms. Sales of cars, minivans and sport utility vehicles jumped 8 percent last year from 2014.

從表面上看，中國的汽車銷售勢頭似乎很強勁。越來越多的中國家庭看起來能買得起車了，而且正在涌向展銷廳。從2014年到去年，轎車、小型貨車和運動型多功能車的銷量飆升了8%。

The buyers are not just China’s college-educated, white-collar elite, but also the beneficiaries of the country’s roughly eightfold growth in blue-collar wages in the last dozen years. Zhou Genkou, a burly truck driver, recently waited in a Volkswagen dealership to pay $12,300 for a new white Santana sedan. He explained that he could not tolerate life without a car.

購車者不僅有大學學歷者、白領精英，而且還包括過去十幾年裏工資增長了大約七倍的藍領。周根冦（音）是一個魁梧的卡車司機，近日他在大衆汽車經銷店裏等候爲一輛白色桑塔納新車支付1.23萬美元（約合人民幣8萬元）。他解釋說，自己過不了沒有車的生活。

“It’s so that we don’t have to walk,” he said.

“有了車就不用再走路了，”他說。

But there are signs that China’s yearslong auto boom is easing.

但有跡象表明，中國數年來的汽車熱潮正在降溫。

After car sales fell three months in a row, the Chinese government decided last September to halve the sales tax on cars with engines of 1.6 liters or less, to 5 percent through the end of 2016. The main beneficiaries have been domestic Chinese automakers, mostly affiliated with municipal or provincial governments, that churn out cheap subcompacts with small engines.

去年9月，汽車銷量連續下降三個月之後，中國政府決定將1.6升及以下排量轎車的銷售稅減半至5%，直到2016年年底。這個舉措的主要受益者是中國本土汽車公司，它們大多隸屬於市級或省級政府，生產小排量的廉價微型車。

A similar tax reduction produced strong sales in 2009 and 2010. But it mainly encouraged consumers to buy sooner. When the tax cut expired, sales essentially leveled off for the next two years.

2009年和2010年時，類似的減稅措施導致了強勁的銷售勢頭。但那主要是鼓勵消費者將購車計劃提前。在減稅期結束後的兩年裏，汽車銷售基本趨於平穩。

With the current tax reduction scheduled to end, “2017 will be a very difficult year for the auto industry, probably no growth,” said Yale Zhang, the managing director of Automotive Foresight, a Shanghai consulting firm.

而在目前的減稅期結束之後，“2017年將會是汽車行業非常困難的一年，可能不會有任何增長，”上海諮詢公司汽車市場預測(Automotive Foresight)總監張豫(Yale Zhang)說。

Multinationals are focusing more on higher-profit segments that are growing without help from such incentives. But they are also finishing up a factory-building spree that started three years ago, when the economy was healthier.

跨國公司更加集中在高利潤細分市場上，銷售增長不受這種激勵措施的影響。但它們也在三年前掀起了建廠熱潮，當時中國的經濟形勢還比較健康。

“We see China moving to a pace of what I would call moderate growth,” said Matthew Tsien, the G.M. executive vice president who oversees the company’s China business.

“我們認爲，中國正在轉向一種我稱爲‘適度增長’的步伐，”通用汽車中國區總裁錢惠康(Matthew Tsien)說。

Volkswagen forecasts that China’s auto market will grow slightly faster than the overall economy this year and slightly slower than the overall economy for the rest of the decade. G.M. is forecasting that the market will grow a little less than 5 percent a year through the end of the decade, the equivalent of adding the entire auto market of Japan, or five Australias.

大衆汽車公司預測，中國汽車市場今年的增長將超過整體經濟，而在這個十年剩下的時間裏，它的增長將略慢於整體經濟。通用汽車公司預測，該市場在2020年以前將以每年略低於5%的速度增長，增量相當於整個日本汽車市場，或者五個澳大利亞汽車市場。

Both automakers are planning to meet much of that growth with factories they have already commissioned or will soon finish. But if the economy weakens significantly, the industry could get stuck with a large amount of excess capacity.

這兩家汽車製造商都計劃通過已經委託建造的或即將完工的工廠滿足大部分增長需求。但如果經濟大幅下滑，汽車行業將陷入產能過剩的困境。

“Are manufacturers going to keep the rose-colored glasses or get real? Most of the multinationals are going to get real and slow down the new capacity,” said Bill Russo, former chief executive of Chrysler China and now a consultant. “I’m not sure about the local manufacturers. They have a ‘Field of Dreams’ and ‘build it and they will come’ mentality.”

“製造商會保持樂觀還是會現實一些？大部分跨國公司會現實一些，放緩新增產能，”克萊斯勒中國公司(Chrysler China)前首席執行官比爾·魯索(Bill Russo)說。“我不確定當地製造商的情況。他們有種電影《夢幻成真》[Field of Dreams]裏的心態，‘只要去建造，他們就會來。’”魯索現在擔任顧問。

Chinese auto industry leaders shrug off such concerns. “They see the small-car market as having a lot of potential,” said Cui Dongshu, the secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association.

中國汽車行業的領袖對這些擔憂不予理會。全國乘用車市場信息聯席會祕書長崔東樹說，“他們看到小型車市場具有很大潛力。”

The Chinese economy needs continued strength in the auto market. The government wants to shift to a new, more sustainable model for growth based on consumer spending.

中國經濟需要汽車市場繼續走強。政府希望轉向以消費支出爲基礎的、更具可持續性的新增長模式。

Since 2009, China has depended heavily on a loan-fed surge in construction of ever more highways, rail lines, factories and other investments. But that has produced a mountain of debt, particularly at state-owned enterprises.

自2009年以來，中國嚴重依賴貸款促進建築項目的增加，建造更多公路、鐵路線、工廠及加大其他投資。但這給相關公司帶來了鉅額債務，特別是國企。

Strong auto sales helped China attain a little-noticed milestone in recent months. Overall retail sales of consumer goods in China surpassed such sales in the United States, according to official data.

近幾個月來強勁的汽車銷售幫助中國達到了一個不太引人注意的里程碑。官方數據顯示，中國的消費品零售總額超過了美國。

If sales do slow sharply, the question is whether multinationals and domestic automakers will try to start exporting more from their Chinese factories. The facilities are among the most advanced in the world, not least because they are also the newest.

如果銷售大幅放緩，問題在於國際及國內汽車製造商是否會嘗試開始出口更多中國工廠生產的汽車。這些工廠是世界上最先進的——一個重要的原因是它們都是最新建造的。

G.M. and other automakers could in theory try to export more cars to the United States, which is also a relatively healthy market. One potential obstacle, however, is that China’s surplus capacity is mainly in subcompact cars, for which Americans have little appetite.

通用和其他汽車製造商理論上可以嘗試向美國出口更多汽車，美國也是一個相對健康的市場。但中國的汽車生產力過剩主要出現在小型汽車領域，美國人對這種汽車不太感興趣，這可能是一個阻礙。

G.M. is already preparing to start shipping a new car-based sport utility vehicle, the Buick Envision, from China to the United States, from a factory in northeastern China. The arrival of the Envision, which is being built only in China, Buick’s biggest market by far, will be the mass market debut of Chinese-built cars in Big Three showrooms in the United States.

通用已經準備開始從中國東北的一家工廠向美國運送以轎車爲基礎的多功能運動型車別克昂科威(Buick Envision)。這款汽車只在中國生產，中國是別克目前最大的市場。這將是中國生產的汽車首次在美國“三巨頭”的展銷廳面向大衆市場銷售。

The preferences of Chinese consumers tend to be different from those of American buyers. Chinese customers, for example, are highly prone to complain if fabrics and other materials in a car’s interior do not smell quite right, according to surveys by J. D. Power & Associates. Many in the auto industry have said they will be watching how American buyers respond to Chinese-built Envisions.

中國消費者的偏好往往與美國顧客不同。例如，市場諮詢公司J. D. Power & Associates的調查顯示，中國顧客經常抱怨汽車內部的織物及其他材料有異味。很多汽車行業的人士表示，他們將會關注美國顧客對中國製造的昂科威汽車的反應。

“So will we,” said Mr. Buetow of G.M.

通用的布托表示，“我們也會關注。”