歐盟商界警告中國產能過剩風險

China’s crushing overcapacity risks inflaming trade tensions as well as swamping the country’s companies with debt, the European Chamber of Commerce in Beijing has warned.

北京中國歐盟商會(European Chamber of Commerce in China)警告稱，中國嚴重的產能過剩可能加劇貿易緊張，還可能令中國企業背上大量債務。

“They can’t outgrow this problem any More,” J Wuttke, president of the European Chamber, said in Beijing. “Politicians need to realise that [Chinese] overcapacity leads to job losses, which leads to protectionism in Europe.”

中國歐盟商會主席伍德克(J Wuttke)在北京表示：“他們不能再用增長來擺脫這個問題了。政界人士必須認識到，（中國的）產能過剩導致工作崗位流失，進而導致歐洲的保護主義。”

Six out of eight industries studied by the chamber, ranging from glass to paper to steel, show signs that factories are operating at even lower rates than they were in 2009 in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. In the industries studied, Chinese companies compete with large European businesses.

中國歐盟商會研究了玻璃、造紙和鋼鐵等八個產業，其中六個產業顯示出工廠的開工率比2009年全球金融危機過後更低。在這些被研究的產業中，中國企業與歐洲大型企業展開競爭。

The warning comes as the Chinese government grows vocal about the problems of the overcapacity unleashed six years ago, when Beijing authorised a flood of credit to selected industries to offset a steep drop in international demand for its exports. A December study by the People’s bank of China found similar declines in industry utilisation rates in Jiangsu province.

中國歐盟商會發出這一警告之際，中國政府對於六年前釀成的產能過剩問題也日益直言不諱——當時中國政府授權向特定產業釋放了大量信用，以抵消國際上對中國出口需求的急劇下滑。中國央行(PBoC)去年12月份開展的研究也在江蘇省發現了類似幅度的行業產能利用率下滑。

European nations are pushing the EU to take action against imports of Chinese steel in defence of European mills while a case against Chinese aluminium exports is brewing in the US.

歐洲各國正在推動歐盟(EU)針對從中國進口的鋼材採取行動，以保護歐洲的鍊鋼廠。與此同時，美國也在醞釀針對中國鋁材出口的反傾銷案。

More worrying for central planners is the deteriorating return on capital investment in China and the difficulty many state-owned and private businesses are having in paying off loans.

對中央規劃人員來說，更令人擔心的是中國的資本投資回報率正在下降，以及許多國企和民企在償付貸款方面遇到的困難。

“The downward pressure has still not let up. PPI [producer price index] is still falling, overcapacity pressures are high, corporate profits are down,” Wang Yiming, vice-minister of the Development Research Centre which advises China’s cabinet, said in a briefing last week.

國務院發展研究中心(Development Research Centre)副主任王一鳴上週在一個情況介紹會上表示，中國經濟下行壓力沒有完全釋放，工業品價格持續下滑，產能過剩壓力很大，企業利潤下降。國務院發展研究中心是一個爲中國國務院提供諮詢的機構。

Industrial lobby groups dominated by state-owned enterprises are using the strain to argue that the government should close their private, often smaller and more nimble competitors. But the European report concludes that the lion’s share of the problem lies with bloated state companies. They enjoy easy access to loans from state-owned banks and protection from local officials who worry about the impact of a shutdown on local jobs and bank loans.

國企佔統治地位的行業遊說組織正在利用這一壓力，聲稱政府應該關閉其民企競爭對手，這些競爭對手往往規模更小而更爲靈活。然而，中國歐盟商會的報告認定，問題主要在於臃腫的國企。它們不僅容易從國有銀行獲得貸款，還容易得到地方官員的保護，這些地方官員擔心關閉國企會影響當地就業和銀行貸款。