中國產能過剩之痛向全球蔓延

China's problem with bloated production is ricocheting around the world.

中國產能過剩的影響正在波及全球。

China is producing too much steel, plate glass, chemicals, solar panels and other goods for the domestic market, and usually exports the excess at cut-rate prices. That creates big problems for China's competitors, who have to cut their prices to compete, slashing profits for everyone. Back in China, producers find cheap loans to keep producing and exporting. That risks inflating China's credit bubble further -- making China's economy ever-more vulnerable to downturns -- and adds even more manufacturing capacity.

中國目前的鋼鐵、平板玻璃、化學、太陽能電池板以及其他產品的產能已超出國內市場需求，而過剩的產品通常會以更低的價格向海外出口。這給海外的競爭者們帶來了巨大的麻煩，他們也不得不通過降價來提高競爭力，這導致所有廠商的利潤下降。而在中國，這些生產商可以獲得廉價的貸款來繼續生產和出口。這種模式帶來的一個風險是中國的信貸泡沫進一步擴大，從而使得中國經濟更加容易受到增長勢頭下滑的影響，並且會導致產能進一步擴大。

There are winners here, of course: consumers, like car and appliance buyers, who may benefit from the lower costs of steel, glass and chemicals used to build consumer goods. But for producers and policymakers, it means tough decisions about how to keep the pain from spreading and putting more companies -- and free trade -- at risk.

當然也有贏家，那就是消費者，例如汽車和家用電器的消費者。用於生產消費品的鋼鐵、玻璃和化工產品成本的降低可能令他們受益。但對於製造商和決策者而言，這意味着艱難的抉擇，如何來防止由此造成的負面影響進一步擴散、如何避免更多公司、甚至是自由貿易受到威脅都成爲他們必須考慮的問題。

'China is creating a glut of supply and hurting the profitability of the global industry,' says Anthony DeCarvalho, a senior economist at the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, referring to the global steel industry. 'It also may be displacing more efficient producers' outside China who can't compete with subsidized Chinese production, he adds, and go bust.

經濟合作與發展組織(Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, 簡稱OECD)高級經濟學家Anthony DeCarvalho稱，中國正在製造大量過剩產品，並損害全球行業的盈利能力，他指的是全球鋼鐵行業。他表示，中國產品供應過剩可能正造成中國以外的更多高效生產商被淘汰，這些企業無法與獲得政府補貼的中國產品競爭，這導致這些企業走向破產。

Faced with such a challenge, many nations resort to trade sanctions, tacking huge charges on Chinese imports.

面對這樣的挑戰，許多國家選擇了貿易制裁，向中國進口商品徵收高額關稅。

China's vast excess capacity makes it the biggest target of such sanctions. Global Trade Alert, a trade research group headquartered in London, looked for The Wall Street Journal at six sectors marked by excess capacity in China: steel, aluminum, cement, plate glass, wind turbines and solar energy components. Of all the trade sanctions cases brought since Jan. 2009 in these industries, China was the sanctions-target 75% of the time.

中國嚴重的過剩產能使自己成爲這種貿易制裁的第一大目標。據總部位於倫敦的貿易研究機構全球貿易預警組織(Global Trade Alert)向《華爾街日報》(The Wall Street Journal)表示，在鋼鐵、鋁、水泥、平板玻璃、風力發電機和太陽能組件這六個中國存在過剩產能的行業，自2009年1月份以來的所有貿易制裁案例中，有75%的制裁目標是中國。

Overall, China was the target of global sanctions about 46% of the time during the same period, Global Trade Alert found. The U.S. was dinged 34% of the time and the European Union 43%. (The numbers add up to more than 100% because trade sanctions often target multiple countries.)

OECD發現，總體來看，中國在同期有大約46%的時間被列爲國際制裁目標。美國的比例爲34%，歐盟爲43%（數字之和大於100%，因制裁措施通常針對多個國家）。

Trade restrictions deepen tensions among trading partners and can, in some cases, lead to trade wars. In the U.S. and other democracies, such restrictions help turn China into the sinister face of globalization, at least in the court of public opinion.

貿易限制措施加深了貿易伙伴之間的緊張關係，在某些情況下還會引發貿易戰。在美國和其他民主國家，這種限制措施使得中國變爲經濟全球化的負面典型，至少在公衆的觀念中是如此。

'China continually seeks to evade the trade laws and identify new opportunities to ship dumped and subsidized products into the U.S.,' charges Michael Wessel, a member of Congress's U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, and a consultant to the U.S. steel industry.

美中經濟安全審查委員會委員(U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission)、美國鋼鐵業顧問韋賽爾(MIchael Wessel)指責稱，中國不斷試圖規避貿易法，不斷尋找新的機會將傾銷及補貼產品運入美國。

In a statement to The Wall Street Journal, China's Ministry of Information and Industry Technology said China's steel exports, including those to the U.S., abide by the World Trade Organization rules. China's steel overwhelmingly feeds the domestic market, the ministry said, with only 8% of China's crude steel shipped overseas. 'There is no dumping taking place,' the ministry said. ('Dumping' is selling at below-market prices.)

中國工業和信息化部在發給《華爾街日報》的一份聲明中稱，中國的鋼鐵出口（包括出口至美國的鋼鐵）遵守世界貿易組織(WTO)的規則。該部表示，中國鋼鐵絕大部分供給國內市場，只有8%的粗鋼出口海外，不存在傾銷行爲。（“傾銷”即以低於市場價格出售商品。）

Steel is especially politicized, in part because there are few large multinational steel producers to temper nationalist sentiments in individual countries. According to Global Trade Alert, between 1995 and 2013, 28.5% of all anti-dumping trade cases brought globally involved steel, by far the largest sector hit by such suits. China was the target of 35% of the cases, making it number one by a wide margin.

鋼鐵是一種尤其具有政治意義的商品，在一定程度上是因爲大型跨國鋼鐵生產商屈指可數，難以緩和各國內部的民族主義情緒。根據OECD，1995至2013年間全球範圍內的所有反傾銷貿易案中，有28.5%的案件與鋼鐵有關，這是到目前爲止訴訟最多的行業。這其中，中國被定爲訴訟目標的案件佔35%，位居榜首，數量遠超第二位。

'Steel is at the center of trade controversy,' says Scott Kennedy, a China specialist at Indiana University.

印第安那大學(Indiana University)大學中國問題專家肯尼迪(Scott Kennedy)稱，鋼鐵處在貿易爭議的中心。

According to OECD data, the global steel industry can produce 555 million more tons of steel than consumers need. Of that, China accounts for about 37% of the excess capacity.

根據OECD的數據，全球鋼鐵行業的產能比消費需求高出5.55億噸。其中大約37%的過剩產能來自中國。

With so many of the world's factories running at low, inefficient rates of production, prices and profits have dropped. In China, the average price of steel fell by one-fourth between 2011 and Feb. 2014, according Chinese government statistics, about the same percentage decline as import prices for steel in the U.S.

由於全球有太多低效運轉的工廠，鋼鐵價格和利潤出現下降。中國政府統計數據顯示，2011年至2014年2月，中國鋼鐵平均價格下降四分之一，與美國進口鋼鐵價格降幅基本一致。

If anything, the global glut may get deeper. That's because other nations, including India, Vietnam, Iran and Saudi Arabia have followed China's example of trying to build big national steel industries.

全球產能過剩問題可能愈演愈烈，因爲包括印度、越南、伊朗和沙特在內的其他國家也在效仿中國，試圖建立大規模的國有鋼鐵產業。

Even so, China's production increases still dwarf any other nation. Between 2012 and 2015, China should account for about 40% of the world's increased steel-making capacity, the OECD estimates, despite Beijing's efforts to scale back excess production.

儘管如此，中國的鋼鐵產量增幅仍明顯高於其他國家。OECD估計，2012至2015年，中國將佔到全球新增鋼鐵產能的40%左右，儘管中國政府正在努力收縮過剩產能。

The OECD is trying to get a handle on the overcapacity issue, especially in defining more precisely what counts as excess. But the OECD can't force nations to make adjustments to their industrial production.

OECD試圖找到產能過剩問題的癥結，尤其是更準確地定義過剩產能。但OECD不能強迫各國調整其工業生產。

That likely means more frustration ahead.

這可能意味着未來將有更多麻煩。

'A lot of policy makers and steel producers say China doesn't have any competitive advantage in the raw materials' used to make steel, says Mr. DeCarvalho, the OECD economist. 'Their companies aren't making money. So why do we see more investment in plans in China?'

OECD經濟學家DeCarvalho表示，很多決策者和鋼鐵生產商認爲中國在鋼鐵生產的原材料方面不具備任何競爭優勢；既然中國企業沒有盈利，爲何中國要增加投資呢？