中國第三季度GDP增速將爲6.7%

Economists are More bearish on the China than at any time since the global financial crisis, highlighting the challenge for policymakers as they seek to arrest a slowdown in the country’s economy.

如今經濟學家看淡中國的情緒比全球金融危機以來的任何時候都強烈，這突顯出了政策制定者在試圖止住中國經濟放緩勢頭之際面臨的挑戰。

Analysts expect gross domestic product figures due out next Monday to show real growth at 6.7 per cent for the third quarter, lower than the official full-year target of “around 7 per cent”, according to a Bloomberg survey of 25 economists. Official data showed real growth at 7 per cent in both the first and second quarters this year.

彭博(Bloomberg)對25位經濟學家的調查顯示，分析師們預測，定於下週一出爐的國內生產總值(GDP)數據將顯示，中國經濟在第三季度實際增長6.7%，低於官方爲全年設定的“7%左右”的目標。官方數據顯示，今年第一季度和第二季度中國經濟的實際增速均爲7%。

The assessments come amid growing questions over the depth of China’s slowdown and the reliability of the country’s economic numbers.

上述評估是在中國經濟放緩程度和中國經濟數據可靠性引起越來越多質疑的背景下做出的。

“We expect the upcoming...3 data to show real GDP growth sliding to 6.6 per cent year-on-year, weighed down by continued property destocking, stumbling industrial activity, shrinking stock market turnover and weak exports,” UBS China economist Harrison Hu wrote.

瑞銀(UBS)中國經濟學家胡志鵬(Harrison Hu)寫道：“我們預測，受房地產業繼續去庫存、工業活動步履蹣跚、股市成交量萎縮和出口疲弱影響，即將公佈的……第三季度數據將顯示GDP增速滑落至同比增長6.6%。”

The latest survey marks the biggest gap between forecast and target since the first quarter of 2009, when the Chinese economy grew at 6.2 per cent, far below the full-year target of 8 per cent. However, China’s huge economic stimulus programme unveiled in late 2008 succeeded in raising full-year growth to 9.2 per cent.

這項最新調查顯示，預測值與官方目標之間的差距爲2009年第一季度以來的最大值。2009年第一季度，中國經濟增速爲6.2%，遠遠低於那一年8%的全年目標。然而，2008年末中國推出的大規模經濟刺激計劃成功將2009年全年增速推升到9.2%。

The number of economists who responded to Bloomberg’s third-quarter survey, at 26, is sharply below the 39 respondents in the second quarter and 54 in the third quarter of 2014. The decline raises the prospect that some economists may not want to be publicly associated with bearish forecasts.

對彭博第三季度調查作出迴應的經濟學家爲26位，遠遠低於第二季度的39位和2014年第三季度的54位。這種下滑或許意味着，一些經濟學家可能不想與悲觀預測公開牽扯在一起。

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group has the lowest forecast at 6.4 per cent, while UBS and ING Asia expect 6.5 per cent growth. With the exception of one apparently erroneous prediction of 20 per cent growth, all of the surveyed economists expect growth to fall short of 7 per cent. Forecasts from Morgan Stanley and Société Générale were the next most optimistic, at 6.9 per cent.

澳新銀行(ANZ)給出的預測值最低，爲6.4%；荷蘭國際集團亞洲(ING Asia)的預測爲6.5%。除去一個明顯錯誤的預測值（20%），所有受訪經濟學家給出的預測值都低於7%。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和法國興業銀行(Société Générale)給出的預測值是第二樂觀的，爲6.9%。

Sheng Laiyun, spokesman for China’s statistics bureau, said last month that he believed growth as low as 6.5 could be considered as “around” 7 per cent. Even if full-year growth hits the 7 per cent target, it will mark the slowest full-year growth in a quarter of a century.

中國國家統計局發言人盛來運上月表示，他認爲不低於6.5%的增速可被視爲“大約”7%。即便全年增速達到7%的目標，也將成爲25年來最慢的全年增速。

Economists say that while China is mired in a cyclical slowdown due to oversupply in the property sector and weak external demand for Chinese exports, even a reversal of those headwinds will be sufficient to return the country to the double-digit growth rates of the mid-2000s. Structural factors such as a shrinking labour force mean growth is bound to slow.

經濟學家表示，儘管由於房地產行業供應過剩和中國出口產品外部需求疲弱，中國正陷入週期性放緩，但這些不利趨勢即便只是逆轉，也足以讓中國回到2000年代中期的兩位數增速。勞動力減少等結構性因素意味着，增速註定會放緩。

Policymakers have rolled out a series of targeted stimulus measures in recent weeks, including cutting downpayment requirements for mortgages and approving more infrastructure spending. At the same time they are working on longer-term structural reforms, including an overhaul of state-owned enterprises.

最近幾周，政策制定者推出了一系列定向刺激舉措，包括下調抵押貸款首付比例和批准更多基礎設施投資。同時，他們正致力於長期結構性改革，包括改革國有企業。