時事新聞:中國第三季度外匯儲備繼續增長

【英文原文】

China Posts Growth In Foreign Exchange
China's massive reserves of foreign exchange continued to swell in the third quarter, figures published by the central bank show, an indication that foreign Money is still flowing into an economy that rebounded quickly from the global crisis.

The People's Bank of China said its foreign-exchange reserves, which were already by far the world's largest, climbed to $2.273 trillion at the end of September, from $2.132 trillion at the end of June.

China's central bank adds to the reserves when it buys up foreign currency coming into the country -- either as export earnings or investment flows -- in exchange for the local currency, the yuan. Because China reliably runs a trade surplus and keeps its currency largely fixed against the U.S. dollar, the reserves have grown steadily.

Although China doesn't publish breakdowns of its foreign-exchange reserves by currency, dollars are widely believed to make up roughly two-thirds of them. There is little evidence that dominant position is changing.

The large increase in China's reserves means it still has to find somewhere to put tens of billions of dollars in foreign currency every month. U.S. Treasury debt has been the default option. Chinese officials have this year publicly worried about what U.S. fiscal and monetary policies might do to their holdings. But those statements haven't been matched by a major change in China's actual investment strategy, mostly because there are few safe investment alternatives to U.S. Treasury bonds.

【中文譯文】

中國央行公佈的數字顯示，中國龐大的外匯儲備在第三季度繼續增長，表明外資仍在流入這個從全球金融危機中迅速回升的經濟體中。

中國央行說，外匯儲備在9月底達到了2.273萬億美元，高於6月底時的2.132億美元。中國的外匯儲備額在當時就已經位居世界第一。

中國央行在以人民幣購買以出口收益或投資流入的方式進入到中國的外匯時，外匯儲備就會增加。因爲中國持續的貿易順差和基本上維持對美元的固定匯率，外匯儲備一直穩步增長。

雖然中國沒有按貨幣種類公佈外匯儲備明細，但普遍的看法是美元約佔其外匯儲備的三分之二。沒有什麼證據表明這種主導地位發生了變化。

中國外匯儲備的大幅增加意味着它仍要爲每月新增的數百億美元外匯找到去處。美國國債一直是必選項。中方官員今年公開對美國的財政和貨幣政策可能影響到其持有的美國資產表示了擔憂。但是，這些表態並沒有帶來中國實際投資策略的重大改變，主要是因爲很少有安全的投資選擇可以替代美國國債。

【英文原文】

The $141 billion increase in reserves in the third quarter was substantially larger than China's trade surplus for the quarter of $39.27 billion. Such a gap is usually taken as an indication that money also is coming in from other sources. It follows an even larger surge of $177.87 billion in the reserves in the second quarter, which came as investor confidence in China returned and signs of capital flight in earlier months reversed.

China's trade surplus has narrowed this year, as its exports were depressed by the collapse in global demand; imports recovered on the back of the government's sweeping stimulus program. Separate data issued Wednesday showed the monthly trade surplus for September narrowing to $12.93 billion from $15.71 billion in August. Exports were down 15.2% from a year earlier but the decline in imports narrowed to just 3.5%. The smaller trade surplus, if it is sustained, would tend to slow the rate that foreign-exchange reserves accumulate.

There are plenty of reasons for the flood of funds into China by investors or companies indicated by Wednesday's reserves data. The Shanghai stock market, though off its highs earlier this year, is still one of the best-performing in the world, and Chinese property prices have been rising for several months. One indicator of retail-investor interest in Chinese assets -- the amount of Chinese currency held by Hong Kong residents -- is also posting gains. Figures from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority show yuan deposits in the territory rose every month since May, after a long stretch of declines.

【中文譯文】

自1969年以來，諾貝爾經濟學獎以紀念阿爾弗雷德·諾貝爾(Alfred Nobel)的名義每年頒發，但不是五個傳統獎項之一。今年是首次有女性獲得這個“新諾貝爾獎”。

奧斯特羅姆教授表示，她的第一反應是“極大的驚訝與感激”。

她補充道：“有許多、許多人付出了艱鉅的努力，被選中獲得這一獎項是一種巨大的榮譽，我仍有點處於震驚之中。”

當今，很多人可能認爲經濟學家根本不值得表彰，在此之際，今年的諾貝爾經濟學獎頒發給一個與金融危機無關的經濟學分支，從而不太可能像去年那樣引發爭議。去年的諾貝爾經濟學獎得主是美國普林斯頓大學的保羅·克魯格曼(Paul Krugman)，他是一位宏觀經濟學家，曾用凱恩斯主義的觀點評述此次世界經濟危機。

今年上述兩位經濟學家獲獎，是因爲他們研究了這樣一個問題：在不存在詳細合約或法律框架的情況下，如何強制執行規則？他們的研究成果有助於推動人們對一些問題的理解，比如：與更簡單的理論相反，爲什麼自然資源並不總是會退化？爲什麼大公司存在，但同時也會外包某些業務？

【英文原文】

Prof Ostrom has challenged the conventional “tragedy of the commons” theory, arguing that societies and groups regularly devise rules and enforcement mechanisms which stop the degradation of nature. The traditional theory holds that pollution and depletion of resources would occur because individuals did not recognise their effect on others. However, she argued that people could manage resources tolerably well without rules imposed by the authorities if rules evolved over time, entitlements were clear, conflict resolution measures were available, and an individual's duty to maintain the common resource was in proportion to the benefits from exploiting it.

Active participation in setting and enforcing rules was the key feature of such success stories, she found. Prof Williamson also studied economic governance, but within companies. Since much of economic life happens within organisations, he examined how decisions were made, rather than just the decision that was taken. That helped him develop a theory of why companies exist – they can be efficient at resolving conflict, via the use of hierarchy.

He also found that where transactions were complex, companies were more efficient than individual contracts would be.

The theory helps to explain the shifting boundaries of companies; why they often abuse their power; and why large companies evolve in certain industries.

【中文譯文】

第三季度1,410億美元的外匯儲備增加額遠遠高於同期392.7億美元的貿易順差。這種差額往往被視爲資金也來自其他渠道的信號。中國的外匯儲備在第二季度增幅更大，爲1778.7億美元，這要是由於中國投資者信心的恢復和此前幾個月裏資本外逃的現象出現了逆轉。

中國的貿易順差今年已經在收窄，原因是全球需求下降打擊了出口，而政府的的刺激計劃導致了進口的復甦。週三發佈的另一項數據顯示，9月份貿易順差從8月份的157.1億美元下降到129.3億美元。出口比上年同期下降15.2%，但進口降幅縮小到只有3.5%。貿易順差減少的情況如果持續下去，外匯儲備增加的速度可能會放緩。

週三公佈的外匯儲備數據顯示有大量投資者或企業的資金進入了中國，這其中有很多原因。上海股市儘管脫離了今年早些時候的高點，但仍是全球表現最好的股市之一，而中國房地產的價格指數已連續數月上漲。作爲一項反映個人投資者對中國資產興趣的指標，香港居民持有人民幣的金額也出現了增長。來自香港金融管理局(Hong Kong Monetary Authority)的數字顯示，在經過了長期的下降後，香港本地的人民幣存款額自5月份以來逐月上升。