Lex經濟報告: 臺灣,泰國與退QE後的亞洲

Exports, or a nascent middle class? One is the age-old path to prosperity in Asia; the other has produced stunning returns in the past five years. But a look at the diverging performances of Taiwan and Thailand – exponents of the former and latter approaches respectively – suggests a return to the former is under way.

發展出口，還是培養新興的中產階級？前者是亞洲奉行已久的繁榮之路，後者則在過去五年中產生了驚人的回報。但考察分別作爲兩種發展模式典型的臺灣和泰國，兩者不同的經濟表現說明，前一種發展模式即將收穫回報。

It is not always easy to say which came first: the money, or the investing theme. Cheap US funds in search of higher returns certainly found an easy home in southeast Asia, notably Thailand, where the credit the dollars provided lifted growth and helped fuel a consumer boom (and worrying levels of household debt). Backing Thailand’s benchmark SET index five years ago has produced a total return of about 270 per cent. Over that same time, Taiwan’s TWSE has offered just a quarter of that. Yet emerging Asia gets about two-fifths of its economic growth from exports – a higher proportion than emerging Europe (a third) or Latin America (a fifth). And since the Federal Reserve introduced the concept of tapering in May, Taiwan and its export rival South Korea are up almost a tenth respectively while Bangkok and Jakarta, another easy money success story, are off as much as 7 per cent.

資金和投資主題哪個率先到來並不總是那麼容易能說清楚。尋求更高回報率的廉價美國資金無疑在東南亞(尤其是泰國)找到了安樂窩；美元提供的信貸資金促進了泰國的經濟增長，並激起了一輪消費熱潮，當然同時也使泰國家庭負債達到了令人擔憂的水平。如果五年前買入泰國基準股指SET指數，那麼目前的總收益率將達到約270%。同期臺灣股市收益率僅爲泰國的四分之一。但亞洲新興經濟體約有五分之二的經濟增長來自出口——該比例高於歐洲新興經濟體（三分之一）和拉美國家（五分之一）。自美聯儲(Fed)今年5月暗示縮減量化寬鬆規模以來，臺灣及其出口競爭對手韓國的股市分別上漲了近10%，而泰國和印度尼西亞股市則下跌了7%。印度尼西亞也是一個依靠廉價資金實現經濟發展的國家。

Betting on north Asia’s exporters over consumers in the southeast suggests strong investor faith in the Fed’s ability to smoothly withdraw its cheap money without stunting a pick-up in the global economy. Generally, economic growth of about 7 per cent in Asia implies earnings will rise about a tenth in the next year, according to Nomura, which expects the region to grow 7.2 per cent. Thailand and Indonesia would of course also benefit from this. But there is only room for so many successful strategies. The shift in the past few months suggests markets have moved on to the next chapter in the Asian story.

投資者更願意押注於北亞的出口商而不是東南亞的消費者，這表明，投資者強烈相信美聯儲將會在不影響全球經濟復甦的情況下平穩回收廉價資金。野村(Nomura)指出，總的來說，亞洲約7%的經濟增長率意味着明年亞洲企業的盈利將增長約十分之一。野村預計明年亞洲地區的經濟增長率將達到7.2%。泰國和印度尼西亞當然也將從中受益。但面對如此之多的成功策略，市場空間卻是有限的。過去幾個月的形勢變化表明，市場已經進入了亞洲故事的下一個章節。