盤點臺灣反服貿抗議的輸家和贏家

Student demonstrators have ended their siege of Taiwan's legislature, allowing a peaceful return to lawmaking and ending a challenge to President Ma Ying-jeou and his plans for a trade pact with China.

臺灣學生抗議者佔領立法院的行動宣告結束，立法院終於恢復了平靜，臺灣領導人馬英九和兩岸服貿協議所受的挑戰也算告一段落。

But the three-week standoff over the ruling Nationalist Party's plans for a services trade accord - and, more broadly, relations with China - has altered the political landscape, sending a not particularly welcome message to the island's two main political parties, and to Beijing as well.

但這場因服貿協議和兩岸關係引發的持續三週的對峙卻改變了臺灣的政治版圖，向臺灣兩大政黨和中國大陸政府傳遞出一個不太友好的信號。

Mr. Ma's Nationalists and the main opposition Democratic Progressive Party are both losers, analysts say, though to different degrees. China may have to change its tactics to win over hearts and minds in Taiwan, already a difficult task on an island that displays considerable distrust of Beijing and is increasingly fearful of the mainland's economic clout.

分析人士認爲，馬英九領導的執政黨國民黨和主要反對黨民進黨都是輸家，只是程度不同而已。中國大陸可能需要改變策略爭取臺灣的支持，但考慮到臺灣島內對大陸政府極不信任，對大陸在臺灣的經濟影響力也越來越擔憂，懷柔臺灣絕非易事。

On Thursday night the last of the student-led demonstrators filed out of the Legislative Yuan after a final effort to scrub down the walls that had been plastered with banners and slogans opposing the president and the China pact. They had at least won a concession of some level of oversight of the deal stitched together by the Nationalists and Beijing.

上週四晚上，最後一撥抗議學生撤出立法院，他們在離開前清洗了牆壁上的反馬英九和反服貿協議的橫幅和標語。學生們至少贏得了部分妥協，政府承諾對服貿協議施加一定程度的監督。

The president may still get his trade pact with China - a key policy that he has pushed hard to get and one that is widely seen as a boon to the economy. But his disastrously low support in the polls has been dented even further as his party looks warily ahead at important electoral contests this year and in 2016.

馬英九仍可能貫徹服貿協議，這是他賣力推進的一項關鍵政策，也被普遍視爲對臺灣經濟很有裨益。不過馬英九的民調支持率非常低，而且進一步下滑，他所在的國民黨正憂心忡忡地等待着今年和2016年的重要選舉。

'Relations between Taiwan and China have entered a new phase,' said Lo Chih-cheng, associate professor at Soochow University's political science department. 'They will become more complicated.'

東吳大學(Soochow University)政治學系副教授羅致政說，兩岸關係已進入一個新的階段，會變得更加複雜。

China has preferred to deal with the Nationalists, a party that has tried to find a way to keep important economic ties with China on an even course and avoid the bitter wrangling seen under eight years of Democratic Progressive Party rule prior to Mr. Ma's election as president in 2008.

Reuters馬英九中國大陸更願意與國民黨打交道。國民黨希望平穩地找到一條與中國大陸保持經濟聯繫的途徑，避免民進黨掌舵的八年裏與中國大陸發生的齟齬。2008年民進黨下臺，馬英九代表國民黨上位執政。

Beijing has reached out to certain more pragmatic factions within the opposition DPP that have acknowledged the key role of China's huge economy in Taiwan's own prosperity. But it will now find that the political scene is more fractured, with multiple players taking a role in the public debate on how to deal with China.

北京方面還向民進黨內部的務實派伸出橄欖枝，這些務實派並不否認龐大的內地經濟對臺灣繁榮舉足輕重的作用。但中國大陸將會發現，臺灣的政治格局已經變得更加複雜，在如何處理兩岸關係的公共討論中，許多人粉墨登場，發表意見。

Meanwhile, the academic said, the Nationalists have lost support among younger voters, many of them backers of the students' tactics to block the legislature from approving the services pact.

這名學者說，與此同時，國民黨失去了年輕選民的支持，很多年輕選民都支持學生佔領立法院不讓服貿協議過審的戰術。

'The Nationalist Party is the big loser,' said Mr. Lo, adding that the president's efforts to arrange a breakthrough meeting with Communist Party leader Xi Jinping - as well as other accords with China before he steps down in 2016 - now look like 'mission impossible.'

羅致政說，兩黨之中，國民黨是大輸家。他還說，馬英九想要與中共領導人習近平安排一次歷史性會晤（另外他還想在2016年卸任之前與中國大陸簽署其他協議），現在看來這已經是“不可能的任務”了。

Wang Yeh-lih, chairman of the political science department at National Taiwan University, agreed.

國立臺灣大學(National Taiwan University)政治學系主任王業立對此表示贊同。

'The Kuomintang has lost an entire generation of supporters. There were not too many (among younger voters) to begin with and now there will be even fewer,' he said.

王業立說，國民黨已經失去了整整一代人的支持者；本來支持國民黨的年輕人就不太多，現在就更少了。

But both men argued the DPP also came up short in the standoff. 'They were not able to set an agenda. They are not leaders, but followers,' said Mr. Lo

不過，兩人也都表示，民進黨在這次對峙中的表現也不怎麼樣。羅致政說，他們沒有設定議程的能力，他們不是領導者，而是跟隨者。

The DPP chooses a new party leader next month as it prepares for important municipal elections later this year and the next presidential contest in 2016. Who takes the helm will be critical and voters will want to see whether the Nationalists turn to candidates that have not been too closely identified with China business interests.

民進黨下個月將選出一位新的黨主席，並且在爲今年晚些時候非常重要的地方公職人員選舉以及2016年的總統選舉做準備。誰能贏得黨主席選舉將是一個至關重要的因素，而且選民們希望看到，國民黨是否會推出與大陸商業利益沒有太多關聯的候選人。

And another factor to watch will be whether the student leaders opt to form another party.

另外一個需要注意的因素是，學生領袖會不會選擇另外成立一個政黨。

No matter what, the standoff has led to important changes, according to another academic.

另外一名學者說，無論如何，這次對峙已經帶來了重要的變化。

'China might get the message that we place a rather high value on democracy,' said Liao Da-chi, of the Institute of Political Science at National Sun Yat-sen University. 'Perhaps the mainland will be alert to this.'

臺灣國立中山大學(National Sun Yat-sen University)政治所的廖達琪說，中國大陸可能會得到這樣一個訊息：臺灣相當重視民主。他還說，或許這會讓大陸有所警醒。