美國福布斯:年關注臺灣的三個理由

It's got a small, passably well-off population. It's politically stable. And it doesn't shape international relations. So Taiwan easily gets overlooked. Sometimes you look but don't see much either, a chronic frustration with officials bent on more publicity. But the East Asian island with 23 million people, a crucial link in the global high-tech supply chain and one of the world's edgiest relations with emerging superpower China is on my watch list at a tumultuous 2015.

它人口不多，相當富裕，政治穩定，沒有形成國際關係。所以臺灣很容易被忽視，有時你去關注了，但也沒看到多少對傾向於宣傳的官員的長期的失望。但這個有2千3百萬人口、作爲全球高科技供應鏈的重要一環、與崛起中的超級大國中國關係全世界最不穩定的東亞小島，被我列在了對這個喧囂動盪的2015年的觀察名單中。

Here are three reasons:

以下是三個理由：

tions with China stand at a uniquely risky juncture.

1、與中國的關係走到了特別的風險關頭。

Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou's efforts of the past seven years to build once impossible trust with Beijing through economic agreements are hitting a wall. China feels it has given Taiwan enough goodies with 21 existing trade, transit and investment deals. Now it's pushing Taiwan for payback: political dialogue that would ultimately settle who owns who. China has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan for 65 years but the island says through opinion polls it prefers self-rule. Taiwanese people led that dialogue in 2014 first with mass street protests against legislative ratification of all-but-abandoned service liberalization pact with China and then in November elections by throwing Ma's Nationalist Party out of a staggering nine mayoral and county magistrate two governments will keep talking this year as if nothing happened last year, but Taiwan will lack mandates to sign new agreements. China hopes for a political concession from Taiwan before Ma steps down due to term limits in 2016, leaving the presidency open to the more anti-Beijing Democratic Progressive Party. Ma has said no way. "Beijing appears concerned with the possibility that, without having adopted a new policy toward mainland (China) based on ‘one China,' the DPP could win the presidency in 2016," says Alan Romberg, East Asia Program director with the Stimson Institute, a think tank in Washington. The party angered China with pursuit of greater independence when in power from 2000 to 2008. Expect China to grow more nervous as the presidential campaign ramps up late this year.

臺灣“總統”馬英九在過去七年裏試圖通過經濟協定與北京建立一度不可能的信任，但這個努力碰壁了。中國覺得自己在現有的21項貿易、運輸和投資協定中中給了臺灣足夠的好處，現在它正向臺灣施壓，要求回報：最終決定誰擁有誰這個問題的政治對話。中國宣稱擁有臺灣主權已經宣稱了65年，但臺灣的民意測驗則表示更願意自治。臺灣人在2014年引領對話，起初是集體街頭抗議立法機構批准了與中國進行幾乎摒棄的服務貿易自由化協定，後來在11月的選舉中將馬英九的國民黨趕出了九項市縣長職位。雙方政府今年會繼續對話，假裝去年什麼都沒發生，但臺灣缺乏簽署新協議的授權。中國希望臺灣能夠做出政治上的讓步，在馬英九由於任期限制而在2016年下臺、讓“總統”職務空給更加反北京的民進黨之前。馬英九說過這不可能。位於華盛頓的智庫，史汀生中心東亞研究室主任容安瀾說：“北京看上去很擔心這樣的可能性，就是2016年民進黨可能會贏得'總統'職位，而不接受對大陸（中國）的一項基於'一箇中國'的新政策。”民進黨2000年至2008年在任時，就因追求更多的獨立而激怒了中國。可以期望，今年晚些時候總統競選升溫時，中國會變得更緊張。

-tech icons are doing their own thing after decades of contract work.

2、在幾十年的合同工作之後，高科技巨頭做起了自己的事業

After several years of financial setbacks, Taiwan's big-name high-tech firms know they can't rely anymore on just contract work from original designers, even Apple . That was history. A lot of contract work has leeched over to cheaper China, the US government wants Silicon Valley developers to contract onshore and Vietnam shows early promise as a new Asian tech manufacturer because of its low costs. Taiwanese PC developer Acer, smartphone maker HTC and you-name-it-we-build-it assembler Foxconn know their future depends largely on what they do themselves rather than for , once burned by financial losses and management changes, is trying to bolster its world No. 4 rank in PCs with Google Chromebooks including one with an unusually large 15.6-inch display that it announced this month. HTC is coping with thin profits and a shrunken share of the world smartphone market by experimenting with new stuff: a made-for-social media camera, a tablet or two and perhaps a smart band for athletes – evidenced by its partnership with US sports clothier Under Armor. Expect a me-too, made-in-Taiwan boom in wearable devices after Apple releases the iWatch later this year. Foxconn, struggling against competition for Apple assembly contracts, is said to be developing electric vehicles, robotic tools and its own smartphone, depending on whose buzz you believe.

經過了幾年的經濟挫折後，臺灣的大牌高科技公司意識到他們不能再僅僅依靠原創設計方的合同工作了，即使是蘋果公司。那已經成爲歷史。許多合同工作轉向依靠成本更低的中國，美國政府希望硅谷開發者們簽訂岸上合同，而越南由於其低成本成爲了新的亞洲科技製造國，也已經表示了早期的承諾。臺灣的個人電腦開發商宏碁、智能手機制造商HTC、“只有你說不出來沒有我造不出來”的裝配商富士康，都知道他們的未來很大程度上取決於他們的自主創造，而不是爲了別人加工。曾經被經濟損失和管理變動創傷的宏碁，正在通過谷歌Chromebook電腦來努力提高他們目前世界第四的名次，這款電腦包括這個月發佈的非同一般大的、有15.6英寸顯示屏的型號。HTC正在對付微薄的利潤和智能手機全球市場的縮水份額，辦法是試驗新產品：一款爲社交媒體設計的相機，一兩款平板電腦，還可能包括一款運動員用的智能腕帶——這是HTC與美國體育服裝品牌Under Armor的合作關係表明的。可以期待，在蘋果公司發佈iWatch之後，一次模仿的、臺灣製造的可穿戴式設備熱潮將在今年晚些時候興起。正在爲了蘋果裝配合同而努力競爭的富士康，據說正在研發電動車、機器人工具和自己的智能手機，這就看你相信誰說的話了。

Acer's Google Chromebook with a 15.6-inch screen

宏碁的谷歌Chrombook 15.6英寸電腦

anese expect cleaner air, safer food and someday more challenging work.

3、臺灣人期待更清潔的空氣、更安全的食物和有朝一日更有挑戰性的工作。

Taiwanese no longer expect their island to depend wholly on manufacturing, the driver of its half-trillion-dollar economy since the 1960s. They want less pollution and factories that still foul the air or water to pay for it legally. Environmental demands will raise pressure on top Taiwan companies such as Formosa Petrochemical Corp. and Advanced Semiconductor Engineering to price pollution controls into their business plans. They're demanding the stuff they buy, particularly food, be authentic, as shown by the outrage toward a series of scandals involving the suspected tainting or mislabeling of cooking oil under the flag of Ting Hsin International Group. Younger people face new pressure as the education ministry plans to kill off university admission exams that depend solely on rote memorization. That measure would foster talent that thinks outside boxes and welcomes trying risky IT start-ups.A preference now for safe jobs threatens long-term economic performance. Taiwan, not China as before, is now the best place to incubate young inventors, argues John Chen, senior director and consultant with the Market Intelligence and Consulting Institute in Taipei. Costs are rising in China while material incentives grow locally. "Taiwan's government and enterprises have grants allocated for new start-ups," he says. "Therefore, instead of going to China, the majority of Taiwanese people may rather choose to stay in Taiwan." Expect Taiwan to stiffen laws against companies that pollute, taint or lie to consumers. Expect more favors for inventive university graduates to fuel the next new line of smart gadgetry.

自從20世紀60年代開始，製造業就是臺灣高達五千億美元的經濟總量的推動力量，但臺灣人不再希望臺灣完全依賴製造業了。他們希望更低的污染，希望仍在污染空氣與水體的工廠依法付出代價。對於臺灣的頂級公司，比如臺塑石化公司、日月光半導體公司，環保要求會帶來更大壓力，讓他們將污染控制列入到他們的商業計劃中去。臺灣人要求他們購買的東西，尤其是食物，必須是真的，就好像在頂新國際集團旗下生產的食用油的疑似污染、貼錯標籤的一系列醜聞發生時，臺灣人對此表現出了憤怒。由於教育部門計劃撤除只考死記硬背的大學准入考試，年輕人面對着新的壓力。這項措施會培養跳出框架思維的才能，並歡迎嘗試高風險的IT創業。當下對穩定工作的偏好威脅到了長期的經濟表現。臺北的市場情報與諮詢研究所的高級助管兼顧問John Chen說，以前是中國，而現在是臺灣，纔是孵化年輕發明家的最好的地方。中國的花費在升高，而當地的物質激勵增長了。他說：“臺灣的政府和企業資助新的創業，因此，大部分臺灣人會寧願選擇留在臺灣，而不是去中國。”可以期待臺灣用更強硬的法律來管束污染、不潔或欺騙消費者的公司。可以期待有創意的大學畢業生得到更多支持，來推動智能小玩意的下一條陣線。