阿里巴巴上市提振美國IPO市場
One word has been on the minds and lips of participants in the US listings market in recent months – and Alibaba, the Chinese ecommerce juggernaut, has not disappointed.
近幾個月，美國上市市場參與者時常想到和說到一個詞——阿里巴巴(Alibaba)，這家中國電商巨頭，並沒有讓人失望。At $21.8bn, the company priced the largest US-listed initial public offering and the biggest technology or internet related flotation.
阿里巴巴首次公開發行(IPO)融資218億美元，成爲在美國市場上規模最大的一樁IPO案，也是規模最大的一樁科技或互聯網相關企業IPO案。
Yesterday, the company exercised an overallotment option, raising the proceeds to $25bn, making it the world’s largest listing.
日前，該公司啓動了超額配售選擇權，將募得資金提至250億美元，成就了全球最大IPO。
The newly minted shares had delivered the first day share rise, or “pop”, coveted by all IPOs, jumping 38 per cent in opening day trading on Friday.
阿里巴巴剛完成IPO後，交易首日股價上漲，或者說“強勢上漲”，這是所有IPO交易渴望達成的目標。週五上市首日，阿里巴巴的股價較發行價飆漲了38%。With the historic deal done and dusted, what does life after Alibaba hold for the IPO market?
這樁歷史性交易業已塵埃落定，在阿里巴巴之後，IPO市場還能維持這樣的光景嗎？Bankers are predicting a robust next few months, helped in part by the positive spillover from Alibaba’s successful listing as well as a pent-up supply of deals. In the run-up to the IPO, some advisers had cautioned other companies not to compete with the megadeal for investors’ attention.
銀行家預測，IPO市場將在此後數月迎來強勁表現，部分原因是阿里巴巴成功上市帶來正向溢出效應以及此前受壓抑的交易開始推進。在阿里巴巴IPO的準備階段，一些顧問告誡其他公司不要與這樁特大交易爭奪投資者的注意力。But even if its listing has already lined the pockets of investors and bankers, the Alibaba afterglow is limited, as the success of the IPO market ultimately depends on bigger concerns, such as the equities market and the economy.
但是，就算阿里巴巴上市讓投資者和銀行家賺了個盆滿鉢滿，市場上餘留的愉悅情緒也是有限的，畢竟IPO市場的成功最終還是取決於一些更大的考慮，比如股票市場和經濟。“There is a broad halo from Alibaba. It will give people confidence that the IPO market broadly is alive and well and still a place to invest,” says Mark Hantho, global head of equity capital markets at Deutsche Bank.
“阿里巴巴散發出一片大範圍的光暈。這讓人們相信IPO市場整體上是活躍和健康的，還是一個適合投資的地方，”德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)全球股權資本市場主管馬克•漢索(Mark Hantho)說。“The positive aura will ripple through the market. It won’t necessarily have staying power, but it should lift those about to come to market.”
“積極的氛圍會擴散到整個市場。這種氛圍雖未必能夠持續下去，但應該能夠提振那些即將入市者的信心。”The pipeline of deals, which totals about $20bn according to Dealogic, looks diversified by sector.
根據Dealogic的數據，準備之中的IPO交易總額約200億美元，從行業來看多種多樣。These listings will round off a successful year for IPOs. Even before Alibaba, US-listed IPOs were running at their fastest pace in terms of number of deals and dollar value since 2000.
這些IPO交易會給今年的IPO市場畫上一個完美的句號。即便在阿里巴巴IPO之前，以交易數量和融資金額計，今年也是2000年以來美國的IPO市場發展速度最快的一年。Companies poised to list include
準備上市的公司包括：Citizens Financial, the US retail banking arm of Royal Bank of Scotland, which is expected to raise as much as $3.5bn. Another high-profile listing expected this year is Lending Club, the first peer-to-peer lender to go public.
蘇格蘭皇家銀行(RBS)在美國的零售銀行分支Citizens Financial，該公司有望募資35億美元。本年預計上市的另一個備受關注的公司是Lending Club，它將成爲第一個上市的個人對個人（peer-to-peer,簡稱P2P）貸款公司。The San Francisco-based company, which runs an online marketplace for connecting borrowers and lenders, is likely to seek a valuation of about $5bn and hopes to raise more than $500m, the Financial Times has previously reported.
位於舊金山的Lending Club提供一個在線的交易市場，將借款人和放款人聯繫起來。該公司的估值可能爲50億，有望募得逾5億美元的資金，《金融時報》此前曾對此進行相關報道。Virgin America, the California-based airline part-owned by Sir Richard Branson, in July unveiled plans to list with talk of an offering of more than $300m.
理查德•布蘭森爵士(Sir Richard Branson)擁有位於加利福尼亞的航空公司維珍美國(Virgin America)的部分所有權。該公司在7月公佈了上市計劃，期望募得逾3億美元的資金。“Near term you will see a pick-up. Many companies deliberately timed their deals to avoid pricing alongside Alibaba,” says JD Moriarty, head of Americas equity capital markets at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
“近期你將看到交易上升的狀況。許多公司制定上市時間時有意避免與阿里巴巴同期定價，”美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的美國股權資本市場主管JD•莫里亞蒂(JD Moriarty)說。“It is the same advice we might give around a holiday. You want the majority of the marketing after the distraction,” he added.
“我們在節慶前後也會給出同樣的建議。你希望在吸引注意力的事情之後進行絕大部分的交易，”他補充說道。One question for the market is whether all of that Alibaba stock will saturate investors to the point of damping appetite for other, less high profile deals. Mr Moriarty, for one, is not worried.
市場的一個問題是，阿里巴巴的股票是否會把投資者一股腦吸引過去，降低他們對其他關注程度低的交易的需求。對此莫里亞蒂並不擔心。“Given the overall new issue market relative to the depth of the buyside, I am not concerned about [funds getting saturated with the Alibaba deal],” he says. “There is still a lot of cash on the sidelines.”
“考慮到新股發行市場的整體規模與買方實力對比，我並不擔心（資金都被阿里巴巴IPO吸引過去了），”他說，“還有很多資金尚未入場”。Another factor for demand, during the closing stages of the year, is whether investors are beating their benchmarks. Laggards may be inclined to play catch-up in the IPO market.
在今年即將收官之際，另一個影響需求的因素是投資者是否將要戰勝市場指數。落後者或許希望在IPO市場上迎頭趕上。“A lot of investors are in chase mode and a very easy way to get risk-on is via an IPO,” says AC Morgan, head of equity capital markets syndicate at UBS.
“許多投資者正在處於追趕模式，追逐風險的一個非常簡單的方法就是參與IPO，”瑞銀(UBS)的股權資本市場聯合體主管AC•摩根(AC Morgan)說。The average hedge fund, for example, is up just 3 per cent this year, Mr Morgan notes, trailing the 9 per cent advance of the S&P 500.
比如，摩根表示，今年對衝基金平均上漲僅3%，落後於標普500(S&P 500)指數9%的漲幅。More sweeping issues also hold sway. Russ Koesterich, chief investment strategist at BlackRock, says Alibaba’s success is “evidentiary” of a willingness to take risk rather than a cause.
更多影響廣泛的問題也佔據了主導地位。貝萊德(BlackRock)首席投資策略師拉斯•克斯特里奇(Russ Koesterich)表示，阿里巴巴的成功證明了追逐風險的意願，而非原因。“The public is still stretching for yield and growth and that is supportive of the IPO market in general,” he says.
“大衆還在努力追逐收益和增長，這從整體上支持了IPO市場，”他表示。“It is hard to find organic growth when we are still in a slow-growth world, even in the US.
“當我們還處於一個增速緩慢的世界，即使是在美國，也很難找到自然增長。”“You don’t have that booming economy of the 1980s or 1990s that is producing a lot of revenue growth for everyone.
“上世紀80年代或者90年代的蓬勃發展的經濟，令每個人收益的大幅增長，現在並沒有這樣的經濟形勢。”“If a company can drive revenue growth through a niche or expanding market that is something that excites investors.”
“如果一個公司能夠利用細分市場或者日益擴大的市場來拉動收益增長，這會使投資者很興奮。”
