牛肉乾來了 下一個百億美元市場

Five or ten years ago, Hershey’s announcement this week that it will acquire a maker of jerky snacks might have seemed a little odd, if not downright weird. But we seem to be in the midst of a dried-meat explosion, and buying Krave Pure Foods might be the best possible move the struggling Hershey could make.

好時公司本週宣佈將收購一家牛肉乾生產商，此舉如果放在五年或十年前，肯定會被許多人認爲不可思議，或者至少有點奇怪。但現在我們似乎正處在肉乾大爆炸的時代。對處於困境的好時公司來說，收購Krave Pure Foods食品公司或許是最好的選擇。

Hershey’s reliance on chocolate snacks puts it at the mercy of fickle commodities markets. Prices for both milk and cocoa have spiked recently, forcing Hershey to raise prices, and crimping its margins. Cocoa prices are falling now, but that’s largely in response to weakening global demand due to macroeconomic forces like China’s slowdown.

對巧克力類零食的依賴，使得好時公司一直受制於波動起伏的大宗商品市場。牛奶和可可豆的價格最近迅速上漲，不僅迫使該公司提高售價，還蠶食了它的利潤。可可豆的價格現在已有所下降，但這在很大程度上是宏觀經濟力量（比如中國經濟放緩）導致全球需求疲軟所帶來的反應。

At the same time, Americans and other Western consumers are increasingly opting for protein-based snacks in favor of sugary ones. By picking up a major purveyor of jerky, Hershey is directly targeting the consumers it has lost to that trend—and often right in the same grocery aisle.

與此同時，美國和其他西方國家的消費者越來越傾向於選擇蛋白質類零食，而不是含糖食品。通過收購一家大型牛肉乾供應商，好時公司正在將營銷目標直接對準因這種趨勢而流失的那部分消費者——他們並沒有走遠，通常還在相同的雜貨店通道，只不過現在挑選的是牛肉乾。

But this is not your father’s (or great-grandfather’s) dried-meat snack. Jerky is undergoing something of a renaissance. The word “artisanal” is actually being applied to many of these products, which command high retail prices. Krave’s varieties include “Basil Citrus Turkey,” “Curry Beef,” “Honey Chipotle,” and “Smoky Grilled Teriyaki Pork.” These products are a far cry from the mass-produced tubes that are ConAgra’s Slim Jim sausage snacks, or the faux jerky that is basically ground-up meat mush flattened into strips — but is often labeled “jerky,” though with the caveat “ground and formed” or “chopped and formed” appended. Real jerky is sliced from a single piece of meat, salted and cured. The quality of the meat, and the addition of flavorings, is what pushes it into the “high end” category.

但這可不是你的父親或曾祖父吃的肉乾小吃。牛肉乾正在經歷一次復興。許多產品均被冠以“手工製作”的名號，這往往意味着更高的零售價格。Krave公司的牛肉乾產品包括“羅勒柑橘土耳其口味”、“咖喱牛肉味”、“蜂蜜墨西哥風味”和“煙燻烤豬肉味”。這些產品完全不同於康尼格拉公司批量生產的Slim Jim香腸，或那種使用研磨好的肉泥製成的牛肉乾，後者通常也會打上“牛肉乾”標籤，但一般都會帶有“研磨成型”和 “切碎成型”等警告信息。真正的牛肉乾是從一整塊肉上切下一小塊，然後經過醃製和熏製製作而成。牛肉的品質和添加的調味品，讓Krave牛肉乾成爲一種“高端”食品。

The recent jerky explosion really started more than a decade ago, though it has trended up more recently. “If only a few years ago, jerky seemed an old-fashioned kind of food,” The Economist observed in 2006, the carniphilia inspired by the Atkins diet has given it a new life.”

最近的牛肉乾大爆炸其實肇始於十多年前，只是近期開始迅速流行起來。《經濟學人》雜誌早在2006年就指出：“幾年前，牛肉乾還被視爲是一種老式食物。然而，阿特金斯健康飲食法引發的熱潮令其重新煥發光彩。”

Hershey might be a little late to the party, but at least it’s finally here.

好時公司進軍這個行業的時機有些晚，但遲做總比不做好。

Krave was launched in 2010 in the Wine Country town of Sonoma, Calif., after its founder, Jon Sebastiani, took to eating jerky while training for marathons.

2010年，Krave公司創始人喬恩o塞巴斯蒂亞尼在進行馬拉松訓練的時候，品嚐了一塊讓他久久不能忘懷的牛肉乾，隨後就在加州索諾瑪的葡萄酒鄉創立了這家公司。

In August, the company reported that it had become the No. 2 jerky brand in U.S. grocery stores, and that it expected revenues this year to be 300% greater than the $16.9 million it reported in 2013. Numbers were not disclosed for the Hershey deal, but Reuters estimates it was worth between $200 million and $300 million.

Krave公司8月份發佈報告稱，它已經成爲美國食品雜貨店的第二大牛肉乾品牌，今年的營收預計將比2013年的1690萬美元增長300%。好時公司並未公佈這筆收購交易的數據，但路透社估算稱，交易金額應該在2億至3億美元之間。

Krave is not alone in the market. There are many purveyors of “high end” jerky, including Jeff’s Famous and Gary West Artisan Smoked Meats — whose angus beef-based product The Today Show once dubbed “the Rolls Royce of jerky.”

Krave並非一家獨大。市場上有許多“高端”牛肉乾供應商，如Jeff's Famous和Gary West手工煙肉——《今日秀》節目曾將Gary West的安格斯牛肉產品稱爲“牛肉乾中的勞斯萊斯”。

Prices (and, it’s safe to assume, margins) in this segment tend to be hefty. Krave’s Black Cherry BBQ Pork Jerky is selling for $18 on Amazon for a single package — the 16-ounce “value bag.” CBS Newsreported earlier this month that the gourmet grocer Dean & Deluca was selling bison jerky for more than $70 a pound in New York City, and that jerky sales have increased by $1 billion in the past five years alone. The market is worth about $2.5 billion now, according to the Hershey, and there seems to be plenty of more growth ahead.

這類產品的價格往往很高，利潤估計也相當可觀。一包16盎司“超值袋裝”Krave黑櫻桃叉燒豬肉乾在亞馬遜的售價爲18美元。本月早些時候，CBS新聞臺報道稱，紐約市食品零售店Dean & Deluca出售的美洲野牛肉乾的價格超過每磅70美元。僅在過去五年間，牛肉乾的銷售額就增加了10億美元。據好時公司透露，目前該市場的價值約爲25億美元，而且未來仍有巨大的增長空間。

It would be far too facile (and a little offensive) to say that the recent Ebola crisis led to riches for Sebastiani and a new strategy for Hershey. Nevertheless, a line can be drawn between the two events. Cocoa prices last year spiked for a bunch of reasons, but one of them was potential shortages if the disease were to spread to the Ivory Coast, the top cocoa producing country. (West Africa as a whole produces about 70% of the world’s crop.)

如果說近期的埃博拉病毒危機給Krave創始人塞巴斯蒂亞尼帶來了財富，並促使好時公司改變了策略，那未免太過膚淺，甚至有些無禮。但兩件事之間確實有一定的聯繫。可可豆的價格在去年暴漲有許多原因，其中之一便是擔心埃博拉病毒蔓延到科特迪瓦造成供應短缺，因爲科特迪瓦是可可豆的頭號生產國。（西非的可可豆產量約佔全世界產量的70%。）

That never happened, and cocoa prices are dropping fast. But for Hershey, the damage was done, aided by rising dairy prices and softening global demand. The country’s biggest chocolate maker is doing what many formerly sweets-addled Americans are doing: adding more protein to its diet. And like them, it’s likely to feel better for it.

這一幕並未出現，可可豆價格迅速下跌。但對於好時公司來說，因乳製品價格上漲和疲軟的全球需求造成的損失業已形成。這家美國最大的巧克力製造商正在做許多吃糖成癮的美國人正在做的事情：給自己的菜單中添加更多蛋白質。像這些美國人一樣，這樣做肯定也能讓好時公司變得更加健康。（財富中文網）