股市雖然不景氣 大宗商品仍值得投資

Anyone with an equity fund that tracks the S&P 500 has something close to 10 per cent of their investment in commodities companies, such as oil and gas producers or the miners of metals and minerals. For anyone who owns the FTSE 100, the figure is more than 20 per cent, largely because BP and Shell dominate the UK stock market.

任何一個擁有一隻追蹤標準普爾500指數(S&P 500)的股票基金的人，都會有近10%的投資配置到大宗商品公司，例如油氣生產商或者金屬和礦產企業。對於任何追蹤富時100指數(FTSE 100)的基金，這個比例超過了20%，主要是因爲英國石油(BP)和殼牌(Shell)在英國股市舉足輕重。

Yet an increasing number of financial advisers suggest that investors should also carve out an additional piece of their portfolio to invest directly in commodities.

然而，越來越多的理財顧問提出，投資者還應在自己的投資組合中撥出一塊，直接投資於大宗商品。

The advice is controversial but for many people who are considering moving beyond a “plain vanilla” portfolio of stocks and bonds, commodities will be an obvious option to consider.

這種建議頗具爭議，但對於很多正考慮超越由股票和債券組成的“普通”投資組合的人，大宗商品是值得考慮的一個明顯選擇。

The list of tradeable commodities literally runs from A to Z, from aluminium to zinc. Crude oil and natural gas are among the most important to the global economy, but energy investors can also pick propane or ethanol or heating oil. Agricultural staples include corn and coffee and cocoa, among many more. And there are a good half-dozen industrial metals to trade, and precious ones, too, including the speculator’s favourite: gold.

從首字母爲A的鋁到首字母爲Z的鋅，可交易的大宗商品真的很多。原油和天然氣躋身於對全球經濟最重要的大宗商品之列，但能源投資者也可以選擇丙烷、乙醇或取暖油。農產品包括玉米、咖啡和可可豆等等。還有不少於6種工業金屬可以交易，還有貴金屬，包括投機者的最愛：黃金。

Just about the only characteristic in common across this diverse list is volatility. Commodities do not pay dividends or generate earnings like company shares and they do not promise to pay interest like a bond. Without these anchors, their price swings wildly in response to changing assumptions about supply and demand.

這麼多大宗商品的唯一共同特點是波動性。大宗商品不像公司股票那樣派息或產生盈利，也不像債券那樣承諾支付利息。在沒有這些支撐的情況下，它們的價格會大幅波動，迴應不斷變化的供需假設。

As a reminder, the price of a barrel of crude oil plunged by 50 per cent in the space of a few months in 2014 after a subtle change of policy in Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s largest oil producing nations.

提醒一下，2014年，在全球最大產油國之一沙特阿拉伯微調政策後，油價在短短几個月期間下挫50%。

Political developments are far from the only things an investor has to monitor. Changing global trade patterns, currency fluctuations, recessions, wars, even the weather, whose occasional droughts and deluges can ruin an entire year’s agricultural crop — any of these could send prices soaring or crashing.

政治動向遠非投資者必須關注的唯一因素。不斷變化的全球貿易模式、匯率波動、經濟衰退、戰爭甚至天氣（偶爾的乾旱和洪水可能糟蹋全年的農業收成），這些因素中的任何一個都可能導致價格飆升或暴跌。

And after more than a decade when China’s industrialisation, and its insatiable demand for raw materials, seemed to justify ever higher commodities prices, the whole asset class slumped during the 2008 financial crisis and has not recovered old highs.

在10多年期間，中國工業化及其對原材料的旺盛需求似乎證明較高原材料價格合理，但2008年金融危機期間所有大宗商品價格一落千丈，至今沒有恢復過去的高點。

Counterintuitively, despite all that volatility, adding commodities to a portfolio may help an investor sleep at night. The factors that cause commodities to swing around are often independent of those that move the equity and fixed income markets, which means that commodities might well be a cushion in an investor’s portfolio during times when share prices or bonds are going down. That, at least, is the theory espoused by financial advisers who recommend a 5 or 10 per cent allocation to the asset class.

與直覺相反的是，儘管存在巨大波動性，但將大宗商品加入投資組合可能會有助於投資者睡個好覺。導致大宗商品波動的因素，往往與那些影響股市和固定收益市場走勢的因素沒有關聯。這意味着，大宗商品很有可能會在股價或債券價格下跌之際給投資者的投資組合提供緩衝。至少這是理財顧問們推介的理論，他們建議將5%至10%的資產配置於大宗商品。

It has become easier to access the commodities markets. Buying a tanker-load of oil or a warehouse stuffed with grain has always been off limits to all but professional trading companies. The traditional way for individuals to invest was to set up a brokerage account and to venture into the futures markets. This is still the spiciest way to trade today; the leverage built into these derivatives contracts means that one can make big money from relatively small changes in a commodity’s price, but brokers can also demand large sums of money to cover potential losses and bad bets can go very sour, very quickly.

進入大宗商品市場已變得更爲容易。以往，除了專業貿易公司以外，購買整整一艘油輪的石油或整整一個倉庫的穀物是投資者難以企及的。個人投資的傳統途徑是開立一個經紀賬戶，進入期貨市場。這仍是目前最刺激的交易方式；此類衍生品合約的槓桿性意味着，投資者可以通過一種大宗商品相對較小的價格變動大賺一筆，但券商也可能會要求追加鉅額保證金以覆蓋潛在的虧損，而押注失手可能很快讓投資者血本無歸。

More conservative investors can now choose from a burgeoning number of commodities funds, including scores of exchange traded funds that can be as easily bought or sold as shares.

較爲保守的投資者現在可以從數量越來越多的大宗商品基金中選擇，包括很多交易所交易基金(ETF)，它們可以像股票那樣方便地買入或賣出。

The database shows 149 such funds in the US alone, ranging from single-commodity funds like the SPDR Gold ETF to the popular PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund, which mimics the price movement of a broad basket of commodities.

數據庫顯示，僅在美國就有149只此類基金，從SPDR Gold ETF等單一大宗商品基金，到頗受歡迎的跟蹤一籃子大宗商品價格走勢的德意志銀行大宗商品指數追蹤基金(PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund)。

Be wary of some pitfalls, however. The performance of many of these ETFs can diverge markedly from the headline price of a commodity — especially over the long run, if they are investing in futures contracts rather than buying the underlying commodity and sticking it in a warehouse.

不過要當心一些隱患。很多ETF的表現可能會顯著偏離大宗商品價格，尤其是從長期而言——原因是它們投資於期貨合約，而不是購買基礎大宗商品並將其儲存在倉庫。

Actively managed mutual funds are a popular alternative, and Pimco and Fidelity are among the industry titans with commodities offerings. Investors will find that professionally managed, diversified funds inevitably come with higher fees.

主動型共同基金是頗受歡迎的另一個選擇，太平洋投資管理公司(Pimco)和富達(Fidelity)是其中兩家提供大宗商品投資產品的行業巨擘。投資者會發現，專業管理且投資多元化的基金不可避免地會收取較高費用。

Gold retains a unique place in the commodities pantheon, even though it is decades since governments and central banks stopped using the metal as backing for paper currencies. Such is humankind’s historic attachment to gold, its fans argue, it can be counted on to retain its value even while currencies decline and empires fall. Certainly it remains a go-to investment in a financial crisis, and investors who see inflation around the corner will always consider gold a hedge against the declining real value of other assets.

儘管各國政府和央行在幾十年前就停止把黃金用作紙幣的後盾了，但黃金仍在大宗商品領域佔據獨特地位。鍾愛黃金投資的人士表示，人類對黃金的歷史眷戀意味着，即便在貨幣貶值和帝國衰亡之際，人們也可以指望黃金保值。確實，黃金仍是金融危機期間的首選投資，認爲通脹即將出現的投資者永遠可以用黃金對衝其他資產的實際價值下滑。

The two largest commodities ETFs are both gold funds, and no other investment arouses such passionate debate, but the precious metal’s price remains as slippery as any other commodity. Gold — indeed like all commodities — belongs in the category of speculative trades rather than long-term investments.

規模最大的兩隻大宗商品ETF都是黃金基金，其他任何投資都不會引發如此情緒激動的辯論，但金價仍像其他大宗商品那樣捉摸不定。黃金（乃至所有大宗商品）屬於投機交易，而非長期投資。