大宗商品市場疲軟 拉美經濟迎來"新常態"

LIMA, Peru — The president of Venezuela calls for budget cuts as plummeting oil prices slash the country’s export income. Peru relaxes environmental regulations to clear the way for major mining projects, hoping to lift production in the face of falling prices of copper, gold and other metals. In Brazil, hurt by slumping prices for iron and soybean exports, a new, business-friendly cabinet is expected to cut spending and eliminate tax breaks to shore up government finances.

祕魯利馬——隨着油價暴跌，委內瑞拉的出口收入大幅度降低，於是該國總統開始呼籲減少預算。爲了給大型礦業項目掃清道路，祕魯也放寬了環境法規，希望能在銅、金和其他金屬價格下跌的情況下，提高產量。在因爲鐵礦和大豆出口價格下跌而受到打擊的巴西，支持商業的新內閣爲了鞏固政府財政，很可能會削減支出，取消稅收減免政策。

For a decade, the continent was transformed by sustained economic growth and historic reductions in poverty, driven by a boom in prices for the region’s abundant commodities, including oil, natural gas, copper, gold, iron, soybeans and corn.

十年間，持續的經濟增長和貧困程度的歷史性降低改變了這個大陸。之所以會出現這些變化，是因爲當地豐富的石油、天然氣、銅、金、鐵、大豆和玉米等商品的價格出現飆升。

But now that boom is over, prices for those products are falling, and questions hang over the region. Will the good times be followed by a bust, as has happened repeatedly over the decades? Will governments react as they have before by loading up on debt and ignoring the danger signs?

不過現在，這種繁榮的景象已經結束，前述產品的價格正在降低，該地區也面臨着諸多問題。美好的時光過後，經濟是否會發生崩潰，就像數十年來反覆出現的情況那樣？政府是否會像以往那樣，做出增加負債，無視危險信號的反應？

Or will things be different this time?

或者，這一次情況將有所不同？

“We have entered into a new stage,” said José Antonio Ocampo, a former finance minister of Colombia who is a professor at the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University in New York. “I don’t think governments have fully realized yet that this is so, and that they have to change their policy strategy.”

“我們進入了一個新階段，”哥倫比亞前財政部長、目前在紐約哥倫比亞大學(Columbia University)國際與公共事務學院(School of International and Public Affairs)擔任教授的何塞·安東尼奧·奧坎波(José Antonio Ocampo)表示。“我不認爲政府已經充分認識到了目前的情況，而且他們必須改變自己的政策。”

Yet there are signs, he said, that many countries in the region are better positioned now than in the past to tackle the challenge.

他說，但是有跡象顯示，與過去相比，該地區的許多國家都已經做了更好的準備來應對這些挑戰。

“We are already in a period of slower economic growth, and the question is, ‘What’s next?’ ” said Jorge Familiar, the World Bank’s vice president for Latin America and the Caribbean. “Ten or 15 years ago we would be talking about crisis management, and right now we’re talking about growth strategies.”

“我們已經進入了經濟增長放緩的時期，問題是，‘接下來會發生什麼？’”世界銀行(World Bank)負責拉丁美洲和加勒比地區的副行長豪爾赫·法米莉亞(Jorge Familiar)說。“10年或15年前，我們會談論危機管理，而現在，我們談論的是增長策略。”

Brazil, the continent’s economic giant and the seventh-largest economy in the world, according to the World Bank, encapsulates both the problems and the promise of the region.

世界銀行表示，巴西是南美洲的經濟巨頭，也是世界第七大經濟體。它既存在問題，也代表着該地區的希望。

After years of steady growth and poverty reduction, Brazil’s economy has stagnated. While there are many problems, including corruption and government missteps, the situation has been aggravated by falling prices for some of its main exports, including iron ore and soybeans.

經過多年的穩定增長和貧困削減，巴西經濟已陷入停滯。這裏存在腐敗滋生和政府失策等很多問題，但是由於鐵礦和大豆等巴西主要出口商品的價格下跌，情況發生了惡化。

President Dilma Rousseff, a leftist who was re-elected to a second term in October, has signaled that she will make economic growth a priority in her new term, choosing an economic team widely seen as being pro-business.

巴西總統迪爾瑪·羅塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)是一個左派人士，今年10月，她再次當選。她已經表示，自己的新任期將把經濟增長作爲首要任務，她還挑選了一個被廣泛認爲對商業持支持態度的經濟團隊。

They have a chance of succeeding, Mr. Ocampo said, because Brazil has developed a large manufacturing sector that could be the beneficiary of the region’s new economic reality. When commodity prices are high, the currencies of exporting countries tend to rise in value. That can hurt other sectors of the economy, such as manufacturing, since a stronger currency means that exported manufactured goods become more expensive to foreign buyers.

奧坎波說，他們有機會成功，因爲巴西已經發展出了一個規模龐大的製造行業，這個行業可能會從該地區的新經濟形勢中受益。商品價格高企時，出口國的貨幣就傾向於升值。這種情況可能會損害製造業等其他經濟部門，因爲貨幣升值後，出口產品對於外國買家而言就變貴了。

That cycle is now in reverse, with currencies in Brazil and several other Latin American countries depreciating. While that can increase inflation, as has happened already in Brazil, in the long run it could lead to growth in manufacturing exports.

現在，隨着巴西和其他幾個拉美國家的貨幣發生貶值，這種循環也出現了逆轉。雖然這樣會增加通貨膨脹——巴西已經出現了這種情況——但是從長遠來看，則很可能會促進製造業出口的增長。

The challenges are as great for Peru, which depends heavily on the mining operations that powered growth of more than 6 percent annually from 2002 to 2012. With metals prices now in retreat, the central bank predicts the economy will grow by just 3 percent this year.

對於祕魯而言，挑戰同樣嚴峻。從2002年到2012年，祕魯正是因爲嚴重依賴採礦，才達到了超過6%的年增長率。目前，由於金屬價格下跌，央行預計，今年的經濟增長率僅爲3%。

In response, the government of President Ollanta Humala has pushed stimulus measures that include increased government spending and tax cuts. Mr. Humala has also sought to clear the way for more mining, oil and gas projects, hoping to compensate for falling prices by increasing a metals production that remains profitable, if less so.

作爲迴應，奧良塔·烏馬拉(Ollanta Humala)總統領導的政府推了行包括增加政府開支、減稅在內的刺激舉措。烏馬拉還設法掃清障礙，開啓更多的採礦、石油及天然氣工程，希望通過增加金屬產量抵消價格下跌帶來的損失，金屬即便價格不高，仍屬於盈利商品。

But many of those projects have been stalled by environmental concerns and stiff opposition in local communities. Part of the government’s new strategy is to streamline or scale back environmental regulations, including efforts to speed up the process of evaluating environmental impact statements, setting penalties for officials who do not meet deadlines and rolling back recent increases in fines for many environmental violations.

但其中很多工程都因爲環境問題及當地社區的強烈反對而被擱置。政府的部分新策略是精簡或縮減環境法規，比如加快對環境影響報告的評估，處罰那些沒有及時完成任務的官員，消除最近對破壞環境行爲增加的罰款數額。

“It just got cheaper to pollute,” said Ricardo Giesecke, a former environment minister who is critical of the changes.

前環保部長裏卡多·吉塞克(Ricardo Giesecke)對這些改變提出批評，稱“這會減少污染環境需要付出的代價。”

Alonso Segura, the Peruvian finance minister, said the measures should help the country resume economic growth similar to that of recent years.

祕魯財政部長阿隆索·賽古拉(Alonso Segura)表示，這些舉措將幫助祕魯推動經濟發展，使其恢復到近些年來的水平。

“We want to sustain it at or close to 6 percent over the medium term,” he said. New mining projects will enter into production next year while others are expected to increase production, he said. Infrastructure projects expected to get underway, like a Lima mass transit train line and a gas pipeline in southern Peru, will also generate jobs and economic activity.

他說，“我們希望到中期時，將增長率維持在6%或接近6%的水平。”他表示，新的採礦項目將於明年開始進入生產階段，其他煤礦也將增加產量。即將開啓的基礎設施項目也會帶動就業和經濟活動，比如利馬的共同交通鐵路和祕魯南部的天然氣管道。

But Francisco Rodríguez, an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York, said that optimistic predictions of new mines and other projects had fallen short in the past, often because of local opposition. He also pointed to the country’s inability so far to tame its appetite for imported goods, a hangover from the years of high commodity prices.

但紐約美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)經濟學家弗朗西斯科·羅德里格斯(Francisco Rodríguez)表示，過去缺乏這種對新礦及其他項目的樂觀預測，這通常是因爲這些項目會遭到當地民衆的反對。他還指出，祕魯無法抑制對進口商品的需求，這是多年來物價偏高導致的結果。

“They don’t seem to have accepted that 6 percent growth is not a reasonable objective for Peru, and that means they haven’t accepted that the commodities boom is over,” he said. “That’s called denial.”

“他們似乎並不認爲6%的增長率對祕魯來說是一個不合理的目標，這意味着他們不認爲大宗商品市場的繁榮時期已經結束，”他說。“他們拒絕接受現實。”

Perhaps no country is more troubled, or more closely tied to the ups and downs of commodity prices, than Venezuela, which last year received more than 95 percent of its export income from oil. But oil prices have tumbled since the summer, with the price of the benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude dropping to less than $60 in December from more than $100 a barrel in July. President Nicolás Maduro said recently that the collapse had cut his country’s hard currency income by about a third, but the impact is expected to become even more acute next year.

或許與其他國家相比，委內瑞拉受物價起伏的影響更大，受到的困擾更多。去年，石油收入在該國出口收入所佔比例超過了95%。但油價自今年夏天以來不斷下跌，今年12月，作爲基準的美國西德克薩斯中質原油(West Texas Intermediate)的價格從7月的每桶100美元(約合620元人民幣)跌至不足60美元。總統尼古拉斯·馬杜羅(Nicolás Maduro)最近表示，油價下跌導致該國的硬通貨收入減少了將近三分之一，但影響在明年會變得更加嚴重。

The Venezuelan economy was in bad shape before the oil price drop, with inflation of more than 60 percent, by far the highest rate in the region, and chronic shortages of consumer goods — a state of affairs for which, rightly or wrongly, most Venezuelans blame Mr. Maduro.

油價下跌之前，委內瑞拉的經濟狀況就已經非常糟糕，通貨膨脹率超過了60%——迄今爲止該地區的最高水平，長期缺少消費品，且不管對與錯，大多數委內瑞拉人指責馬杜羅導致了這種事態的出現。

Yet Mr. Maduro has only sharpened investors’ fears by attributing the country’s problems to enemies waging an “economic war” aimed at toppling his socialist-inspired government. It is not clear whether they were soothed when Mr. Maduro said in a speech this month that in 2015 he would put aside most of his other duties to focus exclusively on the economy.

但馬杜羅將這些問題歸咎於那些發動“經濟戰爭”，以推翻他所領導的社會主義政府的敵人，結果加劇了投資商的擔憂。馬杜羅本月發表演講稱，他將在2015年撇開大部分任務，集中力量解決經濟問題，目前尚不清楚，在馬杜羅發表上述講話後，這種擔憂是否有所緩解。