拉加德呼籲以強力措施終結低增長
The International Monetary Fund has given the heads of the world’s leading economies a blunt post-summer welcome back to work, warning that the global economy is in need of forceful action to get out of a low-growth rut that is feeding popular anxieties about globalisation.
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)直言歡迎度完夏季假日的世界主要經濟體首腦回來工作，並警告稱，他們需要對世界經濟採取強力措施，才能擺脫低增長局面。低增長加劇了人們對於全球化的普遍擔憂。
A briefing paper released on Thursday, prepared for G20 leaders gathering in China this weekend by the IMF, pointed to softening global growth and international trade, a weaker than expected US economy, shakier growth in emerging economies and the UK heading for a sharp slowdown after June’s Brexit referendum.
週四發佈的一份簡報文件——這是IMF爲本週末將在中國召開的20國集團(G20)會議準備的——提到了全球增長和國際貿易放緩、美國經濟弱於預期、新興經濟體增長更加不穩固，以及英國在6月退歐公投之後的大幅放緩。
The note to G20 leaders points to what appears likely to be a downgrade in the IMF’s current forecast of 3.1 per cent global growth when it releases its new predictions in October.
這份將提交給G20領導人的文件提到，當IMF在10月發佈新的全球增長報告時，似乎可能把當前3.1%的全球增長率預測向下調整。
It also called for G20 governments to do more to make the positive case for globalisation and fight an increase in protectionism which is contributing to historically low growth in international trade.
該文件還呼籲G20政府採取更多措施，找到支持全球化的理由，化解保護主義加劇的局面。保護主義加劇是國際貿易增長落到歷史性低位的原因之一。
The political pendulum threatens to swing against economic openness, and without forceful policy actions, the world could suffer from disappointing growth for a long time, Christine Lagarde, the IMF’s managing director, said in an accompanying blog post.
政治鐘擺可能會朝着反對經濟開放、不採取強力政策行動的方向擺動，IMF總裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)在隨後發表的博客文章中表示。
The IMF paper said the slow recovery had been made worse by the fact that what growth there had been bypassed many low-income earners and raised anxiety about globalisation and worsened the political climate for reform.
IMF文件表示，令低增長雪上加霜的是如下事實：增長一直繞過了許多低收入者並且增加了人們對於全球化的擔憂、惡化了改革的政治氣候。
To escape sluggish growth and boost countries’ economies, the fund has been urging policymakers to more aggressively employ the three prongs of monetary policy, structural reform and fiscal measures.
爲了結束低迷的增長並提振各國經濟，IMF一直在敦促政策制定者更積極地用好三駕馬車——貨幣政策、結構性改革和財政措施。
But on Thursday the IMF said a 2014 pledge by G20 leaders to boost their collective GDP by 2 per cent by 2018 was falling short and would not happen without quick implementation of all announced measures and significant additional efforts to boost productivity, especially in advanced economies.
IMF在週四表示，2014年G20領導人做出的到2018年將其GDP總量提高2%的承諾正在落空，如果不迅速執行所有已宣佈措施、並採取額外的重大努力以提升生產率（尤其是在發達經濟體），那麼這個目標將不會實現。
While the fund expected emerging G20 economies as a group to return to their 1990-2007 average growth of about 5.5 per cent, the medium-term expected average for advanced G20 economies was a full percentage point lower than the historical 2.5 per cent.
IMF預計，G20新興經濟體作爲一個整體，其增長率會恢復至1990至2007年間大約5.5%的水平，而G20發達經濟體的中期增長率預期平均值較歷史上的2.5%低整整一個百分點。
The decline in growth in advanced economies has been due in part to well-known factors such as changing demographics and reduced productivity, which began before the 2008 crisis.
發達經濟體的增長下滑，部分原因在於一些人所共知的因素，比如開始於2008年危機之前的人口結構變化和生產率降低。
But another factor, the IMF said, was a drop in investment that, if it continued, would result in a feedback loop that would hit growth and international trade and lead to even lower investment and a perpetuation of the cycle.
但IMF表示，另一個因素在於投資減少，如果此局面延續下去，就將造成一種反饋循環——該循環會衝擊增長和國際貿易，並會導致投資進一步減少和週期的固化。
In that context, the global economy was also still facing significant downside risks, the IMF said.
IMF表示，在那種情況下，全球經濟還仍然面臨着重大的下行風險。
Among those risks was the potential for a return of financial market volatility associated with Brexit negotiations and turbulent patches in China’s transition to a more service-driven economy.
在這些風險當中，包括一種可能性：即英國退歐談判再度引發金融市場波動，以及中國在轉向更多由服務驅動增長的模式過程中發生動盪。
The global economy, the IMF said, was also facing non-economic risks ranging from the potential for rising geopolitical tensions to the crisis posed by refugees exiting the Middle East.
IMF表示，全球經濟也面臨着一些經濟以外的風險——從地緣政治緊張局勢可能加劇，到難民逃離中東引發危機。
