中國外匯儲備降至5年多低點

China’s foreign exchange reserves dropped more sharply than expected in October, falling to their lowest level in more than five years, according to data from the People’s bank of China.

中國央行(PBoC)的數據顯示，10月中國外匯儲備下降大於預期，降至五年多來最低水平。

Reserves were $3.121tn, a level last reached in March 2011. The monthly decline amounted to $45.7bn, bigger than economists had forecast, with the scale of drop the largest since January when markets were thrown off course by concerns about China’s economy slowing down and a falling oil price.

中國外匯儲備爲3.121萬億美元，上次達到這一水平是在2011年3月。月度下降457億美元，大於經濟學家們此前的預測，爲1月以來最大月度下降。1月時，中國經濟放緩和油價暴跌引起擔憂，全球金融市場陷入震盪。

Peter Kinsella, emerging markets FX strategist at Commerzbank, said the decline in FX reserves was consistent with the development of dollar-renminbi exchange rates during October.

德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)新興市場外匯策略師彼得.金塞拉(Peter Kinsella)表示，10月份中國外匯儲備下降符合美元兌人民幣匯率的走勢。

“What’s interesting is that the decline coincided with an even larger decline in Chinese reserve assets. This, in my view, points to the possibility of capital outflows being larger than the decline in FX reserves suggests,” he said.

“有趣的是，與這一下降同時發生的是中國儲備資產甚至更大幅度的下降。在我看來，這指向了一種可能性，即資本外流高於外匯儲備下降所暗示的水平，”他說。

Analysts see the PBoC’s monthly reserves data as a proxy for currency intervention, and interpret the central bank’s need to intervene as a sign that it is worried the renminbi is weakening too far.

分析師們把中國央行的月度外匯儲備數據視爲匯市干預的一個風向標，並把中國央行的干預需要視爲一個跡象，表明其擔心人民幣過度走弱。

Jens Nordvig, chief executive of the analytics consultants Exante Data, said the scale of central bank FX intervention was a worrying development.

分析諮詢機構Exante Data的首席執行官延斯.諾德維克(Jens Nordvig)表示，中國央行對匯市的干預程度是令人擔憂的。

“There are notable cracks emerging under the surface: the fairly orderly depreciation of the Chinese currency over the past few weeks has been achieved only in the face of an aggressive currency intervention by the Chinese central bank,” said Mr Nordvig.

“表面之下正出現明顯的裂縫：過去幾周人民幣相當有序的貶值，只是在中國央行大舉干預匯市的情況下實現的，”諾德維克說。

The renminbi weakened by a quarter of a per cent yesterday, although attention in the FX market is fixed on the US election. The dollar has been strengthening against most currencies as investor expectation of a Hillary Clinton victory strengthens, and the renminbi was not immune from that effect.

昨日，人民幣匯率下跌了0.25%，儘管美國大選才是外匯市場的關注焦點。美元隨着投資者對於希拉里.克林頓(Hillary Clinton)勝選預期的升高而加強，人民幣並未免受這一局面的影響。

Dollar-renminbi currency options are at their lowest in more than a year, said Mr Nordvig, a sign that the market expected stable FX market conditions in China.

諾德維克表示，目前人民幣兌美元匯率期權處於一年多來低點，表明市場預期中國外匯市場狀況將保持穩定。

However the US election poses problems for the PBoC, particularly if the dollar rallies further on the back of a Clinton victory and a likely tightening of Federal Reserve policy next month.

然而，美國大選給中國央行帶來不少麻煩，尤其是如果希拉里獲勝美元進一步上揚，以及美聯儲(Fed)下月可能收緊政策的話。