應對氣候變化 打造宜居城市

Villain or victim? If policymakers get it wrong, the answer could be both.

是元兇還是受害者？如果政策制定者應對不當，答案可能兩者皆是。

Cities in the 21st century are the engines of economic growth and provide employment and homes to the growing global middle classes.

21世紀的城市是經濟增長的引擎，併爲全球日益壯大的中產階級提供了就業機會和住房。

As the world gets hotter, however, urban areas will need to put themselves at the heart of the international effort to mitigate the effects of climate change.

但隨着全球氣候變暖，城市地區必須把自己放在減輕氣候變化影響的全球性努力的中心位置。

Along with the prosperity and innovation, global cities are the principal source of the carbon dioxide emissions warming the earth’s atmosphere.

伴隨着城市的繁榮與創新，國際化大都市成爲了二氧化碳排放的主要來源，正是這種氣體導致了地球大氣層變暖。

If the process is not halted, these great conurbations will be the worst affected by rising temperatures.

如果這個過程得不到遏制，這些中心城市將成爲受氣溫上升影響最嚴重的地區。

A few figures tell the story.

舉出一些數據即可說明問題。

The London School of Economics Cities programme projects that by 2050 cities will have swelled by another 2.5bn people, taking the overall total to about two-thirds of the global population.

倫敦政治經濟學院(London School of Economics)的城市研究項目預計，到2050年，在城市居住的人口將再增加25億，這將使城市總人口占全球人口的比重達到約三分之二。

On present trends these cities would be producing about four-fifths or more of the greenhouse gas being pumped into the atmosphere.

若目前的趨勢延續下去，排入大氣層的溫室氣體將有五分之四甚至更多是由城市制造的。

As the planet heats up, cities will fare the worst.

隨着地球日益變暖，城市地區的狀況將變得最爲糟糕。

The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates that temperatures in urban areas already tend to be 3.5-4.5C higher than in the countryside.

據總部位於巴黎的經濟合作與發展組織(OECD)估測，目前城市地區的氣溫通常已較鄉村地區高出3.5至4.5攝氏度。

This difference could well increase by another 1C per decade.

未來這一溫差很可能每十年擴大1攝氏度。

This would mean that, by the second half of the present century, some big cities could be as much as 10C hotter than their surrounding hinterlands.

這將意味着到21世紀下半葉，某些大城市的氣溫可能比周圍內陸地區高出10攝氏度。

That begins to sound like unliveable.

大城市將因此逐漸變得不適宜居住。

Many large cities are situated in low-lying coastal areas, leaving them badly exposed to the dangers of flooding that come with rising sea levels and storm surges.

很多大城市位於地勢偏低的沿海地區，存在因海平面上升和風暴潮而引發洪災的隱患。

The sea does not differentiate between the rich and the poor.

大海對貧富一視同仁。

Among the cities judged most at risk by the OECD are Kolkata, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Miami, New York and Osaka.

被OECD評判爲風險最大的城市包括加爾各答、上海、廣州、邁阿密、紐約以及大阪。

Many of the same cities are vulnerable to the urban heat island effects that maximise ambient temperatures.

這些城市當中還有很多存在城市熱島效應，該效應能使城市環境下的溫度顯著上升。

The most affected by these trends are the urban poor — slum dwellers in emerging cities and those lacking cool shelter or air conditioning in long-established conurbations.

城市貧民將成爲受這些趨勢影響最大的羣體——例如新興城市中的貧民窟居民以及那些歷史悠久的大城市中缺少涼爽棲身之所或者空調設施的人。

The story, however, is not one of unremitting gloom.

但前景並非一片黯淡。

As the OECD puts it: It is not cities per se that contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, but rather the way people move around the city, sprawling urban development, the amount of energy people use at home and to heat buildings.

正如OECD所言：城市本身並不是導致溫室氣體排放的來源，罪魁禍首在於人們在城市裏的交通方式，城市的無序擴張，以及人們在家中使用的和用於樓內取暖的能源。

In each of those areas there is scope for the innovation and design that would greatly reduce both energy consumption and carbon production.

在上述這些方面，創新和設計都能顯著降低能源消耗和碳排放。

Planning is crucial.

規劃是重中之重。

Halting urban and suburban sprawl should be at the heart of mitigation strategies.

控制城區和郊區的不斷擴張應成爲減弱氣候變化影響戰略的核心。

The gulf between the emissions generated by different cities is, in significant part, a reflection of differing levels of urban density.

不同城市碳排放量的巨大鴻溝在很大程度上反映了城市密度的差異。

The city of Los Angeles generates a lot more CO2 than New York City, even though the latter has a much bigger population.

洛杉磯市產生的二氧化碳比紐約市要多得多，儘管紐約市擁有更加龐大的人口規模。

The need is to make new developments more compact and to concentrate building on brownfield sites in inner cities.

因此有必要使新的開發項目集約化，並集中建設內城的棕色地帶（brownfield site，受到污染，被廢棄或閒置的前工業和商業用地）。

For good reasons of public health, the internal combustion engine has a limited future in the world’s biggest cities.

出於公衆健康原因，內燃機引擎在全球主要大城市應用前景有限。

Ask politicians in Beijing where they see the most acute sources of popular discontent and they are most likely to point to the smog-filled skies.

如果你詢問北京的政府官員，在他們看來導致公衆不滿的最緊要因素是什麼，他們很有可能會指向霧霾密佈的天空。

Talk to the global plutocrats who have made their home in London and fast-deteriorating air quality is one of their biggest gripes.

和那些已經在倫敦安家的全球富豪們談談，你會發現迅速惡化的空氣質量是他們最爲不滿的問題之一。

The future of urban transport lies in rapid transit systems and electric cars: battery technology, and thus journey range, is advancing by the year.

城市交通的未來在於快速運輸系統以及電動汽車：電池技術以及相應的可行駛里程正在逐年提升。

Above all, what is required is co-ordination: between urban planners, developers, energy and transport specialists and the business community.

最重要的是，必須建立協調機制，讓城市規劃者、開發商、能源和交通運輸專家以及商界展開協作。

The goal? To minimise demand for carbon-intensive energy and maximise the supply possibilities for renewables.

這一機制旨在儘可能降低對碳密集型能源的需求，同時儘可能地提高可再生能源的供給能力。

A report from the think-tank the Chicago Council On Global Affairs points to a strategy developed by the European Innovation Partnership on Smart Cities and Communities as a possible model.

芝加哥全球事務委員會(Chicago Council on Global Affairs)在其發表的一份報告中，將智能城市和社區歐洲創新夥伴行動(Smart Cities and Communities European Innovation Partnership)提出的一項方案列爲了一種可能模式。

This focuses on speeding up the transformation of European cities into smart cities, with an emphasis on:

其中的重點是加速歐洲城市向智慧城市的轉型，並且尤爲強調以下方面：

• Sustainable urban mobility: alternative energies, public transport, efficient logistics and planning.

• 可持續的城市機動性：新型能源，公共交通，高效物流和城市規劃。

• Sustainable districts and built environment: improving the energy efficiency of buildings and districts, increasing the share of renewable energy sources used and improving the living conditions of communities.

• 可持續發展的街區及人造環境：提高建築物和街區的能源利用效率，增加可再生能源的使用佔比，改善社區的居住條件。

• Integrated infrastructures and processes across energy, information and communication technologies, and transport: connecting infrastructure assets to improve the efficiency and sustainability of cities.

• 交叉整合能源、信息與通信技術、交通等領域的基礎設施和流程：將基礎設施資產聯網，以提升城市的資源利用效率和可持續發展能力。

If all this sounds expensive, the costs of doing nothing are likely to be higher.

以上這些聽起來或許耗費不菲，但什麼都不做的成本很可能比這更高。

They will include bills for flood and storm defences, the disruption of complex urban economies threatened by extreme weather, the loss of high-value industries to less-polluted locations and increased personal and public health costs.

這些成本將包括防洪以及防風暴的費用，極端天氣給複雜的城市經濟體帶來的干擾，高價值產業搬遷至污染較少地區所帶來的損失，以及個人與公共健康費用的增長。

On the other side of the balance sheet are the opportunities: rapid urbanisation creates a chance to develop cities that are at once more dynamic and sustainable; innovation promises to be a source of economic growth; and better urban environments will promote human welfare.

我們應看到資產負債表另一邊所體現的機遇：快速城市化進程創造了一個機會，以打造更有活力、可持續發展能力更強的城市；創新有望成爲經濟增長的一大來源；更好的城市環境則將有助於提升民衆福祉。

The task cannot be left to cities alone.

這些任務不能僅靠城市自己完成。

Though mayors and city halls can learn from each other, it will fall to national governments to provide the regulatory regimes and fiscal incentives to accelerate development of climate mitigation and resilience.

雖然各個城市的市長和市政府能夠互相學習，也還是要靠中央政府來提供監管機制以及財政刺激，以加快研究減輕氣候變化影響及適應氣候變化的方法。

The ideal answer would be a globally agreed carbon tax, but in the absence of such an agreement, national authorities must set the frameworks.

最理想的解決辦法是在全球範圍內就徵收某種碳排放稅達成協議，但在缺乏此類協議的情況下，各國政府必須制定相應政策框架。

National treasuries should also encourage the expansion of private financing through green bonds and other innovative instruments.

各國的財政部門同樣應當通過運用綠色債券以及其他創新工具，鼓勵私人部門融資。

There is an additional role for international financial institutions.

國際金融組織還應承擔起額外的職責。

In the wake of last year’s COP21 agreement in Paris, mayors of leading cities have also called for the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to produce a special report focusing on the impact of, and response to, global warming in cities.

在《聯合國氣候變化框架公約》第21次締約方會議(COP21)於去年在巴黎舉行之後，世界主要大都市的市長也向聯合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change，IPCC)發出了呼籲，希望該機構撰寫一份特別報告，重點討論全球城市變暖造成的影響以及對此的應對辦法。

This should provide a platform for multilateral organisations to play their part in promoting sustainable urban development, in providing finance and in spreading best practice and technological innovation.

這將爲多邊國際組織提供一個平臺，以履行他們在促進城市可持續發展、提供資金支持以及推廣最佳實踐和技術創新方面的使命。

The future belongs to cities.

未來屬於城市。

What sort of future will depend on how successful those cities are in nurturing more sustainable environments for citizens and workers.

我們會有什麼樣的未來，取決於城市在爲公民和勞動者營造更可持續的環境方面做得有多成功。

Mitigating and adapting to climate change comes at the top of the list.

減弱以及適應氣候變化的影響將成爲城市的首要任務。

The good news is the more effective they are in meeting the challenge, the more prosperous and hospitable they will be.

好消息是，能夠更加有效地應對挑戰的城市，將變得更加繁榮、更加宜居。