中國對美國牛肉“很有胃口”

Donald Trump this month hailed a deal to resume US beef exports to China as an early win from trade talks with Beijing.

本月，唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)將一項恢復美國對華牛肉出口的協議譽爲對華貿易談判取得的初步勝利。

“China just agreed that the US will be allowed to sell beef, and other major products, into China once again,” the US president tweeted. “This is REAL news!”

“中國剛剛答應允許美國再次向中國出售牛肉和其他重要產品，”這位美國總統在Twitter上發帖稱：“這是真新聞！”

But prime American steak is already on the menu at many mainland restaurants despite a ban in place since a 2003 case of mad cow disease: there is a flourishing grey market in secondary imports from Hong Kong, where the curbs did not apply.

不過，儘管2003年美國爆發瘋牛病後中國出臺禁令禁止進口美國牛肉，但優質美國牛排早已出現在中國內地許多餐廳的菜單上：這是因爲存在一個繁榮的、從香港二次進口的灰色市場，香港並不適用這項禁令。

“That’s a secret,” said a waiter at New York Style Steak & Burger in Shanghai when asked how it sourced its meat.

“這是個祕密，”上海New York Style Steak & Burger的一名侍者在被問及該店牛肉的採購地時說。

Cuts destined for China could make up half of US beef exports to Hong Kong, according to Chenjun Pan, an analyst at Rabobank — a figure that would represent more than $340m of meat a year.

運往中國內地的牛排，可能佔美國對香港牛肉出口的一半，荷蘭合作銀行(Rabobank)分析師潘晨軍(Chenjun Pan)表示，這相當於每年3.4億美元的牛排。

The official revival of US beef exports to China stands to benefit big producers such as Tyson, which have missed out on a boom in Chinese beef demand. Chinese imports of the meat have soared in recent years, reaching $2.5bn last year — up 700 per cent on 2012 — as rising incomes boost meat consumption while relatively inefficient domestic producers struggle to keep up with demand.

美國正式恢復對華牛肉出口，將有利於泰臣(Tyson)等大型生產商。這些生產商錯過了中國牛肉需求的高速增長。近年來，中國肉類進口額大幅增長，去年達25億美元，較2012年高了700%。中國人的收入增長提振了肉類消費，而國內生產商的生產效率相對較低，難以跟上市場需求。

Several Chinese importers told the Financial Times they were keen to start buying premium grain-fed US beef as soon as possible.

一些中國進口商告訴英國《金融時報》，他們很樂意儘快開始採購優質的美國谷飼牛肉。

Although most of China’s imports are of lower-priced grass-fed beef from Brazil, Uruguay and Australia, US beef has long been perceived as higher quality, and it is this that has fuelled the grey market trade via Hong Kong.

雖然中國進口的大部分牛肉是來自巴西、烏拉圭和澳大利亞的價格較低的草飼牛肉，但美國牛肉長期以來一直被認爲品質更高，正是這一點推動了經香港進口美國牛肉的灰色市場貿易的發展。

Zhou Wenjie, a buyer at an import business based in Jiangsu province, said the prevalence of smuggling would set a ceiling on future prices. US beef is expected to sell for higher prices than those charged for Australian meat, which retails online from about Rmb80 ($11) per kilogramme, but lower than those for Canadian beef, which starts at roughly Rmb120, he estimated.

江蘇省一家進口企業的採購員周文傑（音譯）表示，走私活動大行其道會爲未來的價格設定上限。預計，美國牛肉的售價會高於澳大利亞牛肉（網上零售價最低爲每公斤80元人民幣左右），但低於加拿大牛肉（最低爲每公斤120元人民幣左右）。

The existence of the grey channel “means the mainland has a lot of demand,” Henry Huang, managing director at beef importer JOC Australia, told the Financial Times. “US beef is acceptable in China. I think the price of high-quality grass-fed beef will crash a little bit, because the US has very good advantage in high-quality cuts.”

灰色渠道的存在“意味着中國內地的需求很大”，牛肉進口商JOC Australia的董事總經理Henry Huang告訴英國《金融時報》，“美國牛肉在中國受到好評。我認爲，優質草飼牛肉的價格會略微下滑，因爲美國在優質牛排方面擁有很大優勢。”

Yu Xuerong, chairman of food importer Shanghai Paradise Garden, said his company would “certainly import US beef”. He said that it was popular before the ban, and that he was in contact with Cargill, the world’s biggest agricultural commodities merchant.

食品進口商上海天萃庭健康食品有限公司(Shanghai Paradise Garden)董事長餘學榮表示，他的公司“肯定會進口美國牛肉”。他說，禁令出臺前美國牛肉很受歡迎，他正在與全球最大的農產品貿易商嘉吉(Cargill)進行接觸。

China’s opening to the US has been in the works for a long time, with an initial announcement in the final months of the Obama administration. But analysts warn that it may take many more years for a large-scale beef supply chain from the US to China to mature.

中國對美國牛肉開放市場已經籌備很長時間了，中方最初宣佈開放市場的消息時，奧巴馬(Obama)政府離任期結束還剩幾個月。不過，分析師警告稱，一條從美國到中國的大型牛肉供應鏈可能還需要好多年才能成熟。

In a possible harbinger of what awaits the US, Ireland announced the relaunch of beef exports to China in 2015 only to meet a series of bureaucratic hurdles, and the trade in beef has yet to start flowing.

2015年，愛爾蘭宣佈重啓對華牛肉出口，結果遭遇了一系列官僚障礙，牛肉出口至今尚未啓動。這預示着美國可能會遭遇的情形。

Meanwhile, specifics such as tariffs and standards for producers have yet to be decided.

另一方面，關稅和生產商標準等具體細節尚未敲定。

“We can evaluate the scope of this potential?.?.?.?only after we see the details of the import conditions,” said Joel Haggard of the US Meat Export Federation.

“只有在看到進口條件的細節之後，我們才能評估這種潛力有多大，”美國肉類出口協會(US Meat Export Federation)的何嘉德(Joel Haggard)說。