西班牙──歐元的下一個戰場

The Euro's Next Battleground: Spain
Greece set off the crisis rattling the euro zone. Spain could determine whether the 16-nation currency stands or falls.

The euro zone's No. 4 economy, Spain has an unemployment rate of 19%, a deflating housing bubble, big debts and a gaping budget deficit. Its gross domestic product contracted 3.6% in 2009 and is expected to shrink again this year, leaving Spain in its deepest and longest recession in a half-century.

Worries over Greece's ability to finance its huge debts have spread to other, weaker members of the euro zone, but these same fears are now nipping at Spain's heels. The problem is that, thanks largely to its membership in the euro, Spain lacks tried-and-true means to heal its economy.

Spain can't devalue its currency to make its exports More attractive and its sunny beach resorts cheaper because the euro's value is driven by Germany's bigger, competitive industrial economy. Madrid can't slash interest rates or print money to spur borrowing and spending, because those decisions are now made in Frankfurt by the European Central bank.

Spain could still try to stimulate growth through tax cuts and spending increases. But it has already mounted enormous stimulus spending that swelled its budget deficit to 11.4% of GDP last year, and it would need to sell more bonds to raise fresh cash. Buyers of Spanish government bonds, spooked by the prospect of a Greek default, have already demanded higher interest rates from Madrid.

'Spain is the real test case for the euro,' says Desmond Lachman of the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. 'If Spain is in deep trouble, it will be difficult to hold the euro my own view is that Spain is in deep trouble.'

The government rejects talk of crisis. 'The fundamentals of our economy are solid,' Elena Salgado, Spain's economy minister, said in an interview.

Euro-zone heavyweights Germany and France have pledged to support Greece if necessary. But any bailout for Spain-whose $1.6 trillion economy is nearly double those of troubled euro-zone partners Greece, Portugal and Ireland combined-would be far costlier.

A 'shock and awe' infusion aimed at renewing faith in Spain's finances, should it be necessary, would take roughly $270 billion, according to an estimate by BNP Paribas. It estimates similar confidence-restoring moves in Greece, Ireland or Portugal would require $68 billion, $47 billion and $41 billion, respectively.

Most economists see three options for Spain.

The first is for the government to do nothing, leaving the economy to wallow through years of high unemployment and debt defaults. The second is for the government to take a more active role, slashing its spending while taking unpopular measures to boost the supply side of the economy, including overhauling a rigid labor market.

On Tuesday, Spain's top central banker strongly urged this path, calling in a speech for swift government action to reduce the budget deficit and reform the labor market.

Mr. Lachman of the American Enterprise Institute is among the pessimists who doubt the government will take this course. He thinks Spain's chronic inability to restart growth will lead it to contemplate a third option: splitting the euro zone asunder by withdrawing from the common currency. That would permit a devaluation that would, at a stroke, increase Spain's competitiveness and allow the economy to grow again.

A more mainstream view holds that no government, Spain's included, would dare to brave the financial chaos such a move would unleash.

'It's extremely costly to leave the euro,' said Jean Pisani-Ferry of Bruegel, a pro-European think tank in Brussels. The moment a government hinted at a possible devaluation, there would be a run on the banks and an effective default on every euro financial contract with that country. 'The day you start to admit that you're thinking about it, you're in a financial mess.'

西班牙──歐元的下一個戰場
希臘引發了令歐元區動盪不安的危機。西班牙則可能決定16個國家使用的歐元是屹立還是倒下。

西班牙是歐元區第四大經濟體，目前失業率爲19%，樓市泡沫破裂，債務累累，預算赤字巨大。2009年西班牙國內生產總值(GDP)萎縮3.6%，預計今年會繼續萎縮，令西班牙陷入50年來最深重、最漫長的衰退之中。

圍繞希臘是否有能力償還鉅額債務的擔憂擴散到了其他更弱的歐元區國家，不過這種擔憂如今卻在嗜咬着西班牙的腳跟。問題在於，主要因爲西班牙是歐元區成員國，它缺乏經過實踐檢驗的修復經濟的途徑。

由於歐元的價值由德國規模更大、更具競爭力的工業經濟所推動，西班牙無法貶值貨幣來增加出口商品的吸引力或令陽光明媚的海灘度假勝地價格更便宜。馬德里不能降息或印鈔票來刺激借貸和支出，原因是降息和印鈔票如今都是由在法蘭克福的歐洲央行作決定。

西班牙仍可以通過減稅和擴大支出來刺激增長。不過該國已經積累了鉅額刺激支出，導致其預算赤字去年激增至GDP的11.4%，西班牙將需要發行更多債券來籌集新資。西班牙國債的買家因希臘違約的可能而感到不安，他們已經要求馬德里提高利率了。

華盛頓美國企業研究院(American Enterprise Institute)的拉克曼(Desmond Lachman)說，西班牙是真正考驗歐元的案例。如果西班牙深陷麻煩，歐元將難以堅持，我本人的看法是西班牙已經深陷麻煩了。

西班牙政府拒絕談論危機。西班牙財長薩爾加多(Elena Salgado)在接受採訪時說，我們的經濟基本面是堅實的。

歐元區主要國家德國和法國承諾，必要時候會支持希臘。不過，考慮到西班牙規模1.6萬億美元的經濟幾乎是陷入困境的歐元區成員國希臘、葡萄牙和愛爾蘭加在一起的兩倍，對西班牙展開任何救助都要付出更加高昂的代價。

據法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)估計，必要時候將採取的旨在重振對西班牙財務狀況信心的大規模注資將需要約2,700億美元。該行估計，爲重振對希臘、愛爾蘭和葡萄牙的信心而進行的注資則分別需要680億美元、470億美元和410億美元。

大部分經濟學家認爲西班牙有三種選擇。

第一種選擇是，政府不採取任何行動，任由經濟多年處於高失業率和債務違約之中。第二種選擇是，政府扮演更加積極的角色，削減支出，同時採取不受人歡迎的措施來提振供方，包括整頓死板的勞動力市場。

週二，西班牙央行行長強烈敦促選擇第二種道路，在演講中呼籲政府迅速採取行動，以便降低預算赤字，改革勞動力市場。

美國企業研究院的拉克曼是衆多懷疑西班牙政府是否會採取這一途徑的悲觀人士之一。他認爲，西班牙長期無力重啓增長，這將導致它考慮第三種選擇：退出歐元區，進而打破歐元區的統一。這樣，西班牙就可以貶值貨幣，進而立即增加該國的競爭力，令經濟恢復增長。

一種更加主流的看法是，任何一個國家的政府都不敢面對退出歐元區所帶來的金融動盪，包括西班牙政府在內。

布魯塞爾親歐洲的智庫Bruegel的皮薩尼-費瑞(Jean Pisani-Ferry)說，退出歐元區代價將非常高。一個國家的政府暗示可能貶值貨幣的那一刻，就會出現銀行擠兌，與那個國家簽訂的任何歐元金融合約實際上都會違約。你開始承認自己在考慮退出歐元區的那一天，就已經陷入了金融困境。