日本期待通過奧運會重拾民族自豪感

The 1964 Tokyo Olympics marked a shining Moment in Japan's history, an occasion that restored national pride after a humiliating World War II defeat and heralded the country's long, victorious climb toward international economic power.

1964年東京奧運會是日本歷史上的一個閃耀時刻，這場盛會使日本在二戰戰敗後重拾民族自豪感，此後日本踏上了成功邁向國際經濟強國的漫長之路。

Now after two decades of a painful economic slump, two years after devastating natural disasters and mounting insecurity about getting eclipsed--and threatened--by a rising China Japan is hoping that the Olympics will bring a period of magic one more time.

如今，日本曾經歷了長達20年的痛苦經濟滑坡，兩年前還曾發生毀滅性的自然災害，此外，日本日益擔心中國的崛起將使其被超越並受到威脅。在這種情況下，日本希望奧運會能再次帶來一段時間的奇蹟。

'Japan Needs the Power of This Dream Now!' the city of Tokyo proclaimed in its plea-like slogan as it campaigned to host the 2020 summer games, in banners splashed around the city in recent weeks. Its dream came true Sunday when the International Olympic Committee chose the Japanese capital by a decisive margin over its two troubled rivals, Istanbul and Madrid.

東京在申辦2020年夏季奧運會時打出了“現在，日本需要這個夢想的力量”標語。近幾周，東京大街小巷都掛起了這個像在請求一樣的標語。週日，日本的這個夢想變爲現實，當天日本戰勝了伊斯坦布爾和馬德里這兩大對手，被國際奧林匹克委員會(International Olympic Committee)選爲2020年奧運會的主辦地。

Setting aside their usual worries and resignation over shrinking paychecks and pension shortfalls, many in Japan responded with unrestrained displays of joy and excitement. For a nation that has hosted three Olympics in the past - Summer games in 1964, Winter games in 1972 and 1998--the victory was not so much about international recognition of its status or ability. Rather, it is about restoring hope and energy among the nation's weary populace, something Japan needs desperately to tackle its numerous challenges, like mounting government debt, the costly aging of its population, economic and territorial rivalry with China, and festering trouble at the Fukushima nuclear power plant.

不顧平時對薪資縮水和退休金不足的擔憂和無奈，許多日本人毫無顧忌的表現出高興和興奮的心情。對這個過去已經舉辦過三屆奧運會（1964年的夏季奧運會、1972和1998年的冬季奧運會）的國家來說，這次勝利的意義與其地位或者能力獲得國際認可的關係不大，真正的意義在於這將令消沉的日本民衆重新燃起希望和重拾活力，這是日本迫切需要的，有助於其解決目前面臨的諸多挑戰。這些挑戰包括：政府債臺高築，高昂的老齡化成本，與中國的經濟和領土對抗，福島核電站不斷加劇的問題。

Tokyo's victory 'tells us if we put our hearts together and push ourselves, we can make our dreams come true, ' Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said in a television interview Sunday. 'For 15 years, Japan has stagnated because of deflation and a recessionary trend. I am convinced we can accelerate growth in the economy if we all work toward the dream and goals we were just granted.'

日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)週日在一個電視採訪中說，東京的勝利告訴我們，如果我們齊心協力，推動我們自己向前，我們是能夠實現夢想的。他說，15年來，由於面臨通貨緊縮和衰退趨勢，日本經濟一直處在停滯狀態中，我相信，如果我們都朝着剛剛被賦予的夢想和目標努力，我們能夠加快經濟增長步伐。

It was also a significant personal victory for Mr. Abe, who took power late last year promising to restore Japan's long-eroded national pride and optimism, and has become unusually popular for a Japanese prime minister by jolting markets with a big dose of economic stimulus. Mr. Abe was speaking from Buenos Aires where he arrived Saturday to give a final push to Tokyo's bid at a key IOC meeting. Underscoring the importance of the weekend event, the prime minister cut short his attendance at a key global summit meeting last week in Russia and traveled for 23 hours to seal the bid

這也是安倍晉三個人的一次重大勝利。他在去年底上任時承諾將恢復日本長期受到打擊的民族自豪感和樂觀情緒，他大舉實施的經濟刺激措施還讓他成爲了異乎尋常受到市場歡迎的首相。安倍晉三是在布宜諾斯艾利斯發表的講話，他在上週六抵達這裏，爲東京在國際奧委會一個重要會議上的申奧活動做最後的努力。安倍晉三縮短了上週在俄羅斯參加一個重要全球峯會的行程，經過23個小時的旅途行程抵達這裏以確保東京能申奧成功，這凸顯出上週末這一申奧活動的重要性。

There, Mr. Abe successfully assured IOC members worried about radiation leaks at the tsunami-ravaged Fukushima nuclear plant that many believed doomed Japan's chances. 'It has never done and will never do any damage to Tokyo, ' he said in his speech. IOC members credited Mr. Abe personally for helping win the vote. 'The certainty was the critical factor, ' said Craig Reddie, chairman of the IOC's evaluation commission. 'The prime minister dealt with the one big issue, ' Mr. Reddie added.

安倍在這次大會上成功消除了國際奧委會成員對於被海嘯損毀的福島核電站放射物泄露問題的擔憂，此前許多人認爲這一問題令日本取勝的希望變得渺茫。安倍晉三在發言中說，這個問題從未並且永遠不會對東京產生破壞性影響。國際奧委會成員認爲安倍晉三的個人努力對東京在此次投票中獲勝起到了幫助。國際奧委會評估委員會主席雷迪(Craig Reddie)說，消除這個擔憂是一個關鍵因素，日本首相解決了這個大問題。

Tokyo's success gives older Japanese a chance to look back on the glorious experience of hosting the 1964 games and younger ones an opportunity to learn about the period filled with optimism for the future, a luxury that has largely escaped their generation.

東京的此次成功令日本年長者有機會回顧日本舉辦1964年奧運會時的榮耀經歷，也給予日本年輕人在一段充滿樂觀情緒的時期中成長的機會，這種機會在他們這一代難得一遇。

As Japan prepared for its earlier Olympics, a series of infrastructure projects were implemented, laying the foundation for the nation's modern economy and rapid economic growth over the following decades. The bullet train connecting Tokyo and Osaka started operating just days before the games held in October 1964, and the core of the Metropolitan Expressway, the highway system in central Tokyo, was newly constructed. Tokyo's public transportation network was given a major boost, while the public broadcasting system was upgraded, encouraging families to purchase color TVs.

日本在籌備此前的奧運會時，建設了一系列基礎設施項目，爲之後幾十年日本的現代經濟和快速經濟增長奠定了基礎。東京至大阪的子彈頭列車在1964年10月奧運會開幕前幾天剛剛開通，東京市中心的高速公路系統首都高速公路(Metropolitan Expressway)的核心也是新建成的。東京的公共交通網絡得到了大幅提升，公共廣播系統升級，家庭紛紛購買彩電。

Investors and government officials are hopeful that hosting the Olympics will stimulate the economy and provide further momentum to Abenomics, the prime minister's ambitious attempt to revive Japan's economy by using a combination of policy steps dubbed 'three arrows': monetary easing, fiscal spending and deregulation. Some are already calling the 2020 games the 'fourth arrow.' A key ingredient of Abenomics is also psychology--persuading Japanese that better days are ahead, and so encouraging them to spend more, invest more, and take more risks. The Olympic victory, and the years of promotional preparation, help underscore that message.

投資者和政府官員們希望，舉辦奧運會將刺激經濟增長，爲“安倍經濟學”提供更多的動力。“安倍經濟學”是首相安倍晉三複興日本經濟的宏大嘗試，具體方法是利用被稱爲“三支箭”的政策舉措組合：貨幣寬鬆、財政支出和放寬監管。一些人已經開始稱2020年奧運會是“第四支箭”。“安倍經濟學”的一個要素還是心理方面的——讓日本人相信未來會更好，進而鼓勵他們更多支出、更多投資，並更多冒險。申奧成功以及多年的宣傳籌備工作有助於突出這一訊息。

Still, Tokyo had campaigned on promises of hosting 'compact' and 'deliverable' games, with plans to re-use some of the facilities built for the 1964 games and make the best use of existing infrastructure. So the investments in Olympic-related construction are rather small compared to big spending for the 2008 Beijing games or the 2012 London contest--roughly Y1 trillion ($10 billion) or just 0.2% of Japan's economy last year. In addition, Tokyo estimates the Olympics could create ripple effects in the economy of Y3 trillion for the country, including Y1.6 trillion for the city.

儘管如此，東京申奧時曾承諾舉辦一屆“緊湊”、“能兌現”的奧運會，計劃再利用爲1964年奧運會修建的部分設施，並充分利用現有基礎設施。因此，與2008年北京奧運會或2012年倫敦奧運會的鉅額支出相比，東京奧運會的相關建設投資規模相當小，約爲1萬億日元（合100億美元），僅相當於日本去年經濟總量的約0.2%。此外，東京估計，2020年奧運會有望給日本經濟帶來3萬億日元的漣漪效應，包括給東京帶來1.6萬億日元的貢獻。

Some economists say effects on the economy could be bigger, if the prospects of the 2020 games could convince policy makers to take on more ambitious infrastructure projects, such as much-needed improvement to the Metropolitan Expressway, built in time for the 1964 games. Kyodo News reported estimates that 8.5 million tourists could visit for the games in 2020, helping amplify an industry Japan has targeted for growth amid the decline of manufacturing. Stocks seen as gaining from the Olympics--notably construction companies--have outpaced the market in recent weeks

一些經濟學家說，如果2020年奧運會的前景能夠說服決策者開展更多宏大的基礎設施項目，比如對首都高速公路進行急需的升級改造，則奧運會對日本經濟的影響可能會更大。首都高速公路是爲1964年奧運會而建的。日本共同社(Kyodo News)報道說，估計2020年奧運會將可能吸引850萬遊客，幫助推動旅遊業的發展。在製造業下滑之際，日本寄希望於旅遊業實現增長。一些被認爲將受奧運會推動上漲的股票近幾周表現強於大盤，建築公司股票表現尤其搶眼。

More important, economists say, is the boost the games could give to Japanese people's sentiment, something Mr. Abe could use as he begins to battle Japan's grave fiscal woes even as he pursues policies for growth. Within a few weeks, Mr. Abe must make a decision on whether to raise the nation's broad sales tax, an unpopular step that could undermine the modest growth Abenomics has so far generated. 'It is very obvious we'll see the national sentiment turn positive. That will make it easier for the government to discuss tax reform and austerity, ' said Masaaki Yamaguchi, an equity market strategies for Nomura Securities.

經濟學家們說，更重要的是奧運會可能給日本民衆的信心帶來提振，在安倍晉三實施促進經濟增長的政策並奮力應對日本嚴重的財政困局之際，他可能利用這種效應。幾周內，安倍晉三必須就是否上調日本普遍的消費稅作出決定。這一舉措不得人心，可能有損“安倍經濟學”目前爲止創造的小幅經濟增長。野村證券(Nomura Securities)股市策略師Masaaki Yamaguchi說，很顯然，我們將看到日本民衆的情緒轉向積極。這將使政府更容易討論稅改和緊縮措施。

For some, hosting of the Olympics is redemption of national pride after years of witnessing its economic prowess erode. Japan has also felt growing heat from neighbors like China and South Korea, as they experienced economic success and pressed more demands on Japan to solve territorial disputes and disagreements over Japan's wartime conduct.

對一些人來說，舉辦奧運會是在多年目睹日本經濟實力減弱之後，民族自豪感的迴歸。日本還感覺到來自中國和韓國等鄰國日益加劇的壓力，這兩個國家經歷了經濟上的成功，並向日本更多地施壓，要求解決領土爭端和在日本戰時行爲問題上存在的分歧。