關於2020年,這些預測統統沒有實現(下)

will be sent via rocket.

火箭發送郵件

As out there as it sounds, mail delivery via missile was successfully attempted in 1959. That year, a Navy submarine—the U.S.S. Barbero—sent 3,000 letters, all addressed to political figures like President Dwight D. Eisenhower, using only a rocket. The nuclear warhead was taken out and replaced with mail containers, and the missile was launched towards the Naval Auxiliary Air Station.

就像聽說的那樣，1959年通過導彈投遞郵件的嘗試成功了。那一年，美國海軍潛水艇“巴貝羅號”僅用一枚火箭就向美國前總統艾森豪威爾等政治人物發送了3000封信函。核彈頭被取出並用郵筒代替，導彈被髮射到海軍輔助航空站。

The mail was successfully delivered, and Postmaster General Arthur E. Summerfield was so excited by the "historic significance" of mail delivery via instruments of war that he predicted it would become commonplace by the next century. "Mail will be delivered within hours from New York to California, to Britain, to India, or Australia by guided missiles," he said. "We stand on the threshold of rocket mail." Though we never got rocket mail, we did get something better: email.

信函被成功投遞，郵政總局局長亞瑟·E·薩莫菲爾德對通過戰爭工具投遞郵件的“歷史意義”感到非常興奮，他預測到下個世紀這種方式就會變得很普遍。他說：“從紐約到加利福尼亞、到英國、到印度或澳大利亞的郵件將在數小時內通過制導導彈送達。我們即將到達火箭郵件時代。”雖然我們從未收到過火箭郵件，但我們確實收到了更好的東西：電子郵件。

n will all be built like wrestlers.

女人都將像摔跤運動員一樣健壯

In 1950, Associated Press writer Dorothy Roe revealed some shocking predictions of what life on earth would be like in the 21st century, according to Smithsonian magazine. Among her more head-scratching forecasts were that the women of tomorrow would be "more than six feet tall" and would "wear a size 11 shoe, have shoulders like a wrestler, and muscles like a truck driver." Their proportions, Roe wrote, would be perfectly "Amazonian," all evidently thanks to science providing "a balanced ration of vitamins, proteins, and minerals that will produce maximum bodily efficiency."

據《史密森尼》雜誌報道，1950年，美聯社作家多蘿西·羅伊公佈了一些令人震驚的預測，預測地球上的生命在21世紀將會是什麼樣子。在她的預測中，更讓人不可思議的是，未來的女性將“身高超過6英尺，穿11碼的鞋子，肩膀像摔跤選手，肌肉像卡車司機。”羅伊寫道，其比例將是完美的“亞馬遜式的”，這一切顯然都要感謝科學提供的“維生素、蛋白質和礦物質的平衡比例，這將使身體效率達到最高。”

'll wear antenna hats and disposable socks.

戴天線帽，穿一次性襪子

For a 1939 issue of British Vogue, product designer Gilbert Rhode was asked what he believed people in the 21st century would be wearing—and he had lots of thoughts. He imagined that, by 2020, we would have banished buttons, pockets, collars, and ties, and that men would revolt against shaving. "His hat will be an antenna, snatching radio out of the ether. His socks—disposable. His suit minus tie, collar, and buttons," Rhode declared. He almost described a modern-day hipster living in Brooklyn, but we suspect even the antenna hat might be pushing it a little too far.

在1939年的某期英國《時尚》雜誌上，產品設計師吉爾伯特·羅德被問及他認爲21世紀的人們會穿什麼，他有很多想法。他設想，到2020年，我們將摒棄鈕釦、口袋、衣領和領帶，而男性將對剃鬚產生反感。“人們將戴天線帽，從以太中攫取無線電，還會穿一次性襪子。西裝少了領帶、衣領和鈕釦”，羅德宣稱。他幾乎描述了一個生活在布魯克林的現代潮人，但我們懷疑，即使是天線帽也可能有點超出預想了。

ything—even baby cradles—will be made out of steel.

所有的東西，甚至嬰兒搖籃都是用鋼做的

Thomas Edison played a role in some of the greatest inventions of all time, from light bulbs to movie cameras. But that doesn't mean he only had good ideas. Take his vision of the future of steel, for instance: During a 1911 interview with Miami Metropolis, he predicted that "the house of the next century will be furnished from basement to attic with steel."

從燈泡到電影攝像機，托馬斯·愛迪生在有史以來一些最偉大的發明中發揮了重要作用。但這並不意味着他的主意都是好的。以他對鋼鐵未來的設想爲例：在1911年接受《邁阿密大都會》的採訪時，他預測“下個世紀的房子從地下室到閣樓都將用鋼鐵佈置”。

And according to Edison, the steel obsession wouldn't end there. "The baby of the 21st century will be rocked in a steel cradle," he said. "His father will sit in a steel chair at a steel dining table, and his mother's boudoir will be sumptuously equipped with steel furnishings." Sounds like the opposite of comfy.

根據愛迪生的說法，對鋼鐵的癡迷不會就此結束。他說：“21世紀的嬰兒將被放在鋼搖籃裏。父親將坐在鋼鐵餐桌前的一把鋼椅上，而母親的臥室將配備豪華的鋼鐵傢俱。”聽起來很不舒服。

yone will stop drinking coffee and tea.

每個人都會停止喝咖啡和茶

In 1937, Nikola Tesla predicted that "within a century, coffee, tea, and tobacco will be no longer in vogue." "The abolition of stimulants will not come about forcibly," he wrote. "It will simply be no longer fashionable to poison the system with harmful ingredients." He's hopefully right about tobacco, but the coffee and tea? Not just yet.

1937年，尼古拉·特斯拉預言，“在一個世紀之內，咖啡、茶和菸草將不再流行。”他寫道：“興奮劑的廢除不會是強制性的。用有害成分毒害身體將不再流行。”希望他對菸草的看法是正確的，但是咖啡和茶呢？不是現在。

e will be "blood banks" for teeth.

“牙齒庫”

We already have blood blanks, where life-saving plasma can be donated and used to help patients who need emergency blood. So, what's next, you might be wondering? Well, in a 1947 issue of Mechanix Illustrated magazine, journalist Lester David promised that in the future, we'd have "tooth banks," too.

我們已經有了血庫，可以捐獻挽救生命的血漿，用來幫助需要緊急輸血的病人。那麼，你可能想知道接下來會發生什麼？在1947年的一期《機械製圖》雜誌上，記者萊斯特·大衛預測，將來我們也會有“牙齒庫”。

"Picture the possibilities," David wrote in the story, aptly titled, "How About Tooth Banks?" " All men and women of whatever age will be able to have human teeth imbedded inside their gums until the day they die."

“想象一下這種可能性，”戴維在“牙齒庫怎麼樣？”這篇文章中寫道，“所有的男人和女人，無論什麼年齡，都可以將人類的牙齒嵌入他們的牙齦，使用一生。”

yone will be a vegetarian.

每個人都將成爲素食者

In 1913, Gustav Bischoff, former president of the American Meat Packers Association, predicted that humans' diets would consist of mostly vegetables as the years went on. Because of a shortage of meat, he told The New York Times, even the wealthiest people in the future would be vegetarians.

1913年，美國肉類包裝協會前主席古斯塔夫·比肖夫預測，隨着時間的推移，人類的飲食將以蔬菜爲主。他告訴《紐約時報》，由於肉類短缺，即使是未來最富有的人也會成爲素食者。

also, eating will no longer be necessary.

但是，吃也不再是必須的了

This prediction comes from just 15 years ago and it was made by futurist and computer scientist Ray Kurzweil. He wrote in his 2005 book The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology that by the 2020s, there will be "nanobots" capable of entering the bloodstream to "feed" cells and extract waste. As a result, they'll render the mode of food consumption as we know it obsolete.

這個預測來自15年前，由未來學家和計算機科學家雷·庫茲韋爾做出。他在2005年出版的《奇點即將來臨：人類將超越生物學》一書中寫道：到21世紀20年代，將會有能夠進入血液的“納米機器人”，“餵養”細胞並提取廢物。因此，它們將使我們所知的食物消費模式過時。

'll have robots as therapists.

機器人治療師

Robots are the typical prediction for the future—and technically, we do sort of have robots now. But global trends expert Ariane Van de Ven had some bigger ideas for 2020. She explained in the book Shift 2020 that she believed "there will be more robots used as therapists, companions, assistants, and even friends to help people in their everyday," according to The Next Web.

機器人是對未來的典型預測，從技術上講，我們現在確實有機器人。但是全球趨勢專家阿麗亞娜·範德溫對2020年有一些更大膽的想法。據The Next Web報道，她在《2020年的轉變》一書中解釋道，她相信“將會有更多的機器人被用作治療師、伴侶、助手，甚至在日常生活中幫助人們的朋友。”

ums will be nuclear-powered.

真空吸塵器將由核能驅動

Alex Lewyt, former president of Lewyt Vacuum Company, obviously wanted the world to be excited about vacuum cleaners. But when he predicted in 1955 that "nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners" would become a reality in the future, he maybe wasn't making the most convincing sales pitch. If the choice were between having dirty floors or plugging in a mini-Chernobyl-waiting-to-happen, we'd probably stick with the crumbs and dust bunnies.

顯然，路易特真空公司前總裁亞歷克斯·路易特希望全世界都對真空吸塵器感到興奮。但當他在1955年預測“核動力真空吸塵器”將在未來成爲現實時，他可能並沒有做出最有說服力的推銷。如果要在骯髒的地板和可能發生的微型切爾諾貝利事故之間做出選擇，我們可能會選擇麪包屑和灰塵。