關注社會:中國將出臺新刺激措施?

China is expected to step up efforts to stimulate its flagging economy after an official survey showed the manufacturing sector expanded at its slowest pace in seven Months in June.

預計中國將加大力度刺激日益趨弱的經濟。此前一項官方調查顯示，6月份的製造業擴張速度是七個月來最慢的。

The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 50.2 last month, down from 50.4 in May, the government announced on Sunday, with falling orders and weak exports leading a continuing slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.

中國政府昨天（7月1日）宣佈，今年6月的官方採購經理指數(PMI)跌至50.2，低於5月的50.4。訂單減少和出口疲弱正導致全球第二大經濟體繼續放緩。

The weak PMI reading suggests growth dropped below the symbolic 8 per cent mark in the second quarter after growing at an annual rate of 8.1 per cent in the first. One Chinese government researcher told an academic forum on Sunday that the economy likely grew at around 7.5 or 7.6 per cent in the first half of the year from a year earlier, suggesting a sharp deceleration in the second quarter.

疲弱的PMI數據似乎表明，中國經濟增幅將在第二季度跌破具有象徵意義的8%這個水平。此前，中國經濟在今年首季度同比增長了8.1%。中國官方一名研究人員上週日在一個學術論壇上表示，中國經濟很可能在上半年實現7.5%或7.6%的同比增長，這意味着第二季度將出現大幅減速。

Continued weakness in China's giant manufacturing sector increases the chances that Beijing will introduce fresh measures to boost growth and the new data comes at a time when some in the policy establishment are already calling for action.

中國龐大的製造業持續疲弱，增加了北京方面出臺新措施提振增長的機率。而最新數據出爐之際，中國政策制定圈子裏的一些人已經在呼籲採取行動。

Chen Dongqi, vice director of the academy of macroeconomic research under the National Development and Reform Commission, on Sunday called for more active government policies such as tax cuts, monetary stimulus and fresh infrastructure investment to prop up flagging growth.

中國國家發改委(NDRC)宏觀經濟研究院副院長陳東琪上週日呼籲政府推出更多的積極政策，如減稅、貨幣政策刺激措施以及新的基礎設施投資，以支撐不斷放緩的增長。

Economists also believe further action is likely.

一些經濟學家也相信，中國官方很可能會採取進一步行動。

"We expect the government to loosen policy further to ensure economic growth rebounds in the third quarter," said Zhang Zhiwei, an economist at Japanese investment bank Nomura, predicting a 50 basis point cut in the bank reserve requirement ratio this month.

"我們預期政府將進一步放鬆政策，以確保經濟增長在第三季度出現反彈，"日本投行野村證券(Nomura)的經濟學家張智威表示。他預計，本月中國官方將下調銀行存款準備金率50個基點。

China's central bank lowered interest rates in June for the first time in more than three years and has reduced the proportion of deposits that commercial banks must hold in reserve three times starting in November.

6月份，中國央行在三年多來首次降息。另一方面，自去年11月以來，中國央行已三次下調存準率。

Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said Friday that the government will fine-tune economic policies in a "timely and appropriate" way while maintaining a "prudent" monetary policy.

中國央行行長周小川上週五表示，政府將"適時適度"微調經濟政策，並繼續實施"穩健的"貨幣政策。

Most economists and analysts are predicting that monetary easing and fresh stimulus will lead to a rebound in the third quarter after six successive quarters of decelerating growth. But some, including many Chinese government-affiliated economists, believe that is unlikely.

多數經濟學家和分析師目前預計，在連續六個季度增長減速之後，貨幣政策放鬆和新的刺激措施將推動中國經濟增長在第三季度實現反彈。但有些人士，包括不少中國政府附屬機構中的經濟學家，認爲這是不太可能的。

"There are not many signs from future orders [in the PMI index] that things are picking up," said Nicholas Lardy, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and expert in the Chinese economy. "Everyone was saying things would bounce back in the second quarter and now most global banks are predicting there will be a rebound in the third quarter but I don't have a lot of confidence that will happen."

"從（PMI數據中的）新訂單分類指數看，沒有很多跡象顯示經濟形勢出現起色，"彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)經濟學家、中國經濟專家尼古拉斯•拉迪(Nicholas Lardy)表示。"前一陣大家都在說局面會在第二季度反彈，現在多數全球性銀行則在預計第三季度將出現反彈，但我對這種情形的發生機率信心不大。"

Mr Lardy said a major slowdown in China's overheated real estate market has not yet fed through to the wider economy but when that happens the economy is likely to slow further in spite of government stimulus attempts.

拉迪表示，中國過熱的房地產市場的顯著放緩，尚未影響到整體經濟，但當這種影響最終傳遞到整體經濟時，中國經濟很可能會進一步放緩——儘管政府採取種種刺激措施。

Beijing has signaled that it intends to increase targeted infrastructure spending on things like public utilities and rail system expansion but the government is wary of launching another massive stimulus like the one in 2008.

北京方面已發出信號表明，它有意增加有針對性的基礎設施建設支出，比如對公用事業和鐵路系統擴建的投入，但政府不願像2008年時那樣推出又一輪大規模刺激。

The flood of liquidity and the building boom it unleashed then led to countless inefficient investments across the country, particularly in residential real estate and grand infrastructure projects that are now weighing on local government finances and the balance sheets of state banks.

2008年刺激措施所產生的流動性洪流和建設熱潮，在全國各地留下無數效率低下的投資，尤其是住宅房地產和宏偉的基建項目，這些項目如今正在拖累地方政府財政和國有控股銀行的資產負債表。

The official PMI published Sunday showed the country's manufacturing sector still expanded slightly overall because a reading above 50 points to expansion while a reading below 50 means contraction.

上週日發佈的官方PMI顯示，中國製造業整體上仍有微幅擴張，因爲高於50的PMI表明擴張，低於50則表明收縮。

But sub-indices for new orders and for exports and imports both indicated contraction and harder times to come for a manufacturing sector that has become the world's workshop in the last decade and a half.

但從分類指數來看，新訂單指數及進出口指數均指向收縮，顯示在過去15年已成爲"世界工廠"的中國製造業將迎來更艱難的時期。

The PMI sub-index for new export orders fell into contraction territory with a reading of 47.5 in June from May's 50.4, while the sub-index for overall new orders fell to 49.2 from 49.8 in May.

在6月份的PMI中，新出口訂單分類指數爲47.5，低於5月份的50.4；而整體的新訂單分類指數爲49.2，低於5月份的49.8。

The imports sub-index also declined to 46.5 in June from 48.1 in May.

6月份的進口分類指數也降至46.5，低於5月份的48.1。