黃金風光不再 恐將迎來最黑暗的日子

Up until last year, gold prices rose for at least 11 years in a row. The precious metal spawned a frenzy among everyone from gold bugs to politicos who think America should return to the gold standard. But today they're likely feeling nervous. Gold prices have entered bear market territory, having fallen by 22% this year.

直至去年，黃金價格已經連續上漲至少11年。這種貴金屬讓包括黃金投資者和政客在內的所有人產生了這樣一種想法，即美國應該回歸金本位制度。但如今他們很可能會感到緊張，因爲金價已經進入熊市，今年以來跌幅已經達到了22%。

And it's going to get worse as investors zero in on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will scale down its stimulus program, called quantitative easing. Goldman Sachs (GS) analysts say gold will continue dropping into 2014, possibly falling below $1,000 an ounce, a level not seen since early 2009. This is a reverse from gold's steady rise from $800 an ounce in early 2009 to more than $1,900 in the fall of 2011; on Tuesday morning, it was trading at $1,314.50 in New York.

而且，未來形勢將會變得更加糟糕，投資者正在關注美聯儲（Federal Reserve）是否會縮減經濟刺激計劃的規模，即量化寬鬆。高盛（Goldman Sachs）分析師表示，金價下跌將一直持續到2014年，屆時可能會跌破每盎司1,000美元，創下自2009年初以來的新低。這個變化將扭轉從2009年初到2011年秋天之間的趨勢。在此期間，金價從800美元穩步上漲到了1,900上方。17日上午，紐約的黃金交易價格爲每盎司1,314.50美元。

Regardless whether the Fed tapers its bond-buying program this week or later, a few other factors will likely drive prices lower.

無論美聯儲是否會在本週或隨後縮減購債規模，其他一些因素都可能會推動金價走低。

Inflation. What inflation?

通脹，哪裏來的通脹？

Gold is typically a hedge against rapidly rising prices. Since the financial crisis, many economies from U.S. to Europe have launched several rounds of quantitative easing. The supply of money tripled in most advanced economies, and many worried it would effectively stoke inflation.

通常情況下，黃金是對衝通貨膨脹的一種手段。金融危機爆發以來，包括美國和歐洲國家在內的很多經濟體都已經啓動了多輪量化寬鬆。它導致大多數發達經濟體的貨幣供應上漲了兩倍，很多人擔心這對通脹來說是火上澆油。

Unless all you consume is bacon, inflation hasn't been a problem as the U.S. and the rest of the world retreats from financial abyss. In fact, global inflation is actually low and falling further. In a June article in Project Syndicate, New York University economist Nouriel Roubini forecast that gold could fall to $1,000 by 2015.

除非大家消耗的全都是鹹肉，否則隨着美國和世界其他國家遠離金融深淵，通脹已經不再是一個問題。事實上，全球通脹率目前正處於較低的水平，而且還在進一步下滑。Project Syndicate網站今年6月曾經發布了一篇文章，紐約大學經濟學家努里爾?魯比尼在文中預測，金價到2015年可能會下跌到每盎司1,000美元。

Roubini, nicknamed Dr. Doom for his forecasts of the financial crisis, noted that even though the supply of money has expanded it hasn't changed very many hands, largely because banks have been hoarding cash in the form of excess reserves.

魯比尼因成功預測金融危機的到來而獲得了“末日博士”的綽號，他指出，儘管貨幣供應量擴大了，但由於銀行以額外儲備金的方式來儲備貨幣，因此貨幣的實際交易量並不大。

If banks start lending more, however, the risks of inflation could rise. Even then, gold faces other headwinds.

然而，如果銀行開始放貸，通脹的風險就可能上升。即使那樣，黃金仍然面臨其他打壓因素。

It may be safe, but where are the returns?

黃金也許是安全的，但它帶來的回報在哪裏？

Unlike other assets, gold provides no income. That was an overlooked issue during the worst years following the financial crisis, but now that the economy is improving, gold must compete with returns on other investments, such as stocks, bonds, and real estate.

跟其他資產不同的是，黃金並不提供收入。金融危機之後最慘淡的那些歲月裏，這個問題一直遭到了忽視。但既然現在經濟情況正在改善，那麼黃金就必須跟其他投資品種，比如股票、債券以及房地產等在回報方面進行競爭。

Since Bernanke hinted it could scale back the Fed's bond-buying program soon, interest rates have surged, and they're poised to rise further. This effectively puts gold in a tough spot, as investors sell off the precious metal seeking higher returns in stocks, bonds, and other investments.

由於伯南克暗示美聯儲可能很快就會縮減購債規模，銀行利率已經大幅飆升，而且有望進一步上升。這個變化生生將黃金推到了困境當中，因爲投資者紛紛開始拋售這種貴金屬，以尋求在股票、債券以及其他投資上獲得更高的回報。

"The time to buy gold is when the real returns on cash and bonds are negative and falling," Roubini writes. "But the more positive outlook about the U.S. and the global economy implies that over time the Federal Reserve and other central banks will exit from quantitative easing and zero policy rates, which means that real rates will rise, rather than fall."

“購買黃金的時機是在現金和債券的實際回報率爲負值以及在下滑的時候，”魯比尼寫道。 “不過，對於美國和全球經濟前景更加積極的展望意味着，隨着時間的推移，美聯儲和其他央行將退出量化寬鬆和零利率政策，這意味着實際利率將會上升，而不是下滑。”

Crisis in Syria has subsided (at least for now)

敘利亞危機已經平息（至少目前如此）

Gold is widely viewed as a safe-haven investment. When crisis arises, investors flock to the precious metal as a safe store of value.

人們普遍認爲黃金是一種投資避風港，危機爆發時，投資者會紛紛涌向這種貴金屬，把它作爲一種安全的價值儲存手段。

Markets have been zeroing in on conflicts in Syria, which could potentially push gold higher. At least for now, however, a military strike looks less likely as the country has accepted Russia's proposal for its chemical weapons to be given up for U.N. control. It remains to be seen if Syria is serious about its offer, but it does make U.S. military strikes less likely, at least in the near-term, according to JPMorgan analysts.

敘利亞爆發的衝突一直牽動着市場，有可能會推高金價。然而，至少從目前看來，針對敘利亞的軍事打擊不太可能發生，因爲敘利亞已經接受了俄羅斯的提議，打算放棄化學武器，交由聯合國控制。據摩根大通（JPMorgan）分析師分析，敘利亞是否會認真對待這項提議仍有待觀察，但它確實讓美國實施軍事打擊的可能性變小，至少在短期內是這樣。

And even if the offer isn't serious, it's uncertain if Congress would vote for military action.

另外，即使敘利亞陽奉陰違，美國國會是否會投票支持軍事行動仍是未知之數。

Another debt ceiling debate could be a snooze

新一次債務上限可能不會引起市場波動

There's another crisis to consider that could sway the direction of gold: The debt ceiling.

我們還要考慮另一場可能影響黃金走勢的危機：債務上限。

As Americans will recall, there has been not one deadline -- but two -- since 2011. The first almost pushed the economy into catastrophe, with a major ratings agency taking the nation's stellar triple A rating away. The issue was resolved through $1 trillion in discretionary spending cuts combined with sequestration. The second one followed shortly after Obama's re-election, and like the first one, Republicans and Democrats came to an agreement; the debt ceiling was raised.

美國人都記得，自2011年以來已經出現兩次債務上限。第一次幾乎令美國經濟陷入災難，所有主要評級機構都下調了美國3A級別的主權評級。這個問題通過削減1萬億美元可自由支配開支、同時結合預算封存得到解決。第二次發生在奧巴馬連任之後不久，跟第一次一樣，共和黨和民主黨達成協議，再次提高了債務上限。

Come mid-October, the nation will approach another deadline. It's likely that the market might snooze through the third debt ceiling debate, as the previous ones were ultimately resolved. That would keep downward pressure on gold, but there is of course a possibility that the latest debt ceiling drama may turn out differently: Republicans say they will raise the debt ceiling only in return for budget concessions, while the Obama administration says it won't offer any.

今年10月中旬，美國又將迎來新一次債務上限。由於之前的債務上限問題最終都得到了解決，因此，在第三次債務上限的辯論過程中，市場很有可能不會出現波動。果真如此，黃金的下行壓力還會延續。不過，當然還有一種可能性，新一次債務上限問題出現不同的局面：共和黨人說，他們只有在預算讓步的情況下才會同意提高債務上限，而奧巴馬政府則表示不會做任何讓步。

Eventually, either side will likely budge, but as the Washington Post's Ezra Klein points out, what alarms him now is that "no one can tell me how one or both of those positions will change before we breach the ceiling."

最終，兩黨很有可能會讓步。但正如《華盛頓郵報》（ Washington Post）的以斯拉?克萊恩所指出的，現在讓他恐慌的是：“沒有人可以告訴我，在我們債務違約之前，兩黨中的一方或雙方的立場將發生什麼樣的變化。”

That uncertainty may send gold higher, but it hasn't, at least not so far.

這種不確定性可能會金價走高，但它還沒有，至少目前來說是這樣。