俄羅斯稱已走出經濟風暴最黑暗時期

Russian authorities signaled on Wednesday that the country had weathered the worst of an economic storm caused by the annexation of Crimea, but acknowledged that the crisis had taken a toll on economic growth and driven up inflation.

俄羅斯政府週三暗示，該國已渡過了吞併克里米亞引發的經濟風暴的最黑暗期，但同時也承認這場危機給經濟增長造成了嚴重影響並推高了通貨膨脹。

Russia's occupation of the Ukrainian region had sent the Russian economy into a downward spiral, triggering massive capital outflows and sending the ruble to all-time lows. The limited Western sanctions that followed created unease at firs, but didn't take a large bite out of the broader economy which appears to have settled in recent weeks, paving the way for a recovery but perhaps in greater isolation from global financial systems.

俄羅斯佔領烏克蘭克里米亞地區導致俄羅斯經濟陷入螺旋下跌局面，引發資金大舉外流，並拖累俄羅斯盧布跌至紀錄低點。西方國家隨後採取的有限制裁措施最初曾引起不安，但是並未給俄羅斯整體經濟造成較大影響，最近幾周俄羅斯經濟形勢似乎已經穩定下來，爲復甦鋪平了道路，不過該國或許會面臨全球金融體系的更大孤立。

In a sign of confidence that the ruble had regained some strength, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said Wednesday that the ministry will resume buying foreign currencies to replenish the country's rainy-day reserve fund in the coming days. The daily purchases of 3.5 billion rubles ($99.8 million) of foreign currencies were halted on March 4 to reduce downside pressure on the battered ruble.

俄羅斯財政部長Anton Siluanov週三表示，未來幾天財政部將恢復購買外幣，補充該國急需的儲備資金，這顯示出對盧布的信心有所恢復，該貨幣已重拾一些上漲動能。爲緩解倍受打擊的盧布的下跌壓力，財政部3月4日暫停購買外幣，當時財政部每日購買的規模爲價值35億盧布（合9,980萬美元）的外幣。

While the announcement of the plan on Wednesday caused the ruble to weaken 0.7% to 35.35 versus the dollar, it has pulled back significantly from its all-time low of 37 rubles per dollar on March 3, although with much help from the central bank. The Bank of Russia said it had spent $22.3 billion and EUR2.3 billion ($3.2 billion) from its reserves to support the ruble in March--its largest intervention since January 2009.

財政部週三公佈上述計劃後，雖然盧布兌美元下跌了0.7%，至1美元兌35.35盧布，但是較3月3日觸及的紀錄低點1美元兌37盧布已經大幅回升，不過這主要得益於俄羅斯央行出手相助。俄羅斯央行表示，爲了支撐盧布，3月份拋售了223億美元和23億歐元（合32億美元）外匯儲備來支撐盧布，這是自2009年1月份以來匯市干預力度最大的一個月。

Also on Wednesday, the finance ministry held its first auction of treasury bonds since late February, indicating that it is ready to borrow at higher costs as yields for its 10-year bonds jumped to nearly 9% from around 8% two Months ago.

同樣是在週三，俄羅斯財政部舉行了自2月底以來的首次國債拍賣，這表明財政部準備以更高成本借債，因爲俄羅斯10年期國債收益率已經由兩個月前的大約8%升到了近9%。

'This auction is some kind of a sign that the market is starting to function in normal mode. But I think that it would be premature to say that Russia is fully returning into the old reality,' said Vladimir Kolychev, chief economist at VTB Capital.

VTB Capital的首席經濟學家科雷切夫(Vladimir Kolychev)表示，本次拍賣從某種程度上表明市場已開始正常運轉。但是他認爲現在判斷俄羅斯正徹底恢復以往的狀態還爲時尚早。

Bank of Russia Chairwoman Elvira Nabiullina said Wednesday that there are no plans to cut interest rates before June, meaning that a temporary decision to hike rates by 150 basis points in early March to bolster the plummeting ruble would remain in effect for at least three months, despite a slowdown in economic growth.

俄羅斯央行行長納比烏林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)週三表示，不準備在6月份前降息。這意味着儘管俄羅斯經濟增長放緩，但3月初加息150個基點以提振暴跌的盧比的臨時決定將至少再繼續生效三個月。

Ms. Nabiullina said the central bank's main target--consumer inflation--is on track to exceed this year's target of 5%, while economic growth may not reach even 1%.

納比烏林娜稱，作爲該行主要政策調控對象的通脹率今年將超過5%的目標，同時經濟增長率可能連1%都達不到。

But as Moscow finds itself increasingly isolated in its standoff with the West over Crimea, President Vladimir Putin has pushed for greater economic self-sufficiency--for example, ordering the creation of a national electronic payment system that would mean Russia isn't dependent on Visa Inc. or MasterCard Inc. Both companies limited their international payment systems for the Russian banks that were affected by sanctions.

不過，在克里米亞問題上與西方陷入僵局而日益被孤立後，俄羅斯總統普京(Vladimir Putin)已採取措施推動國內經濟增加自給能力。他要求建立一個俄羅斯自己的電子支付系統，從而不再依賴Visa Inc.或MasterCard Inc.。這兩家公司已限制西方制裁舉措涉及的俄羅斯銀行使用其國際支付系統。

Andrei Kostin, the head of Russia's second-largest lender VTB, said Wednesday that the national payment system should be created 'as soon as possible.' Speaking at a banking forum, Mr. Kostin said that Russia should also switch its international trade to rubles and the first steps should be taken by export-focused companies, such as Gazprom and Rosneft.

俄羅斯第二大銀行俄羅斯外貿銀行(VTB)首席執行長科斯京(Andrei Kostin)週三表示，應儘快建立自己的支付系統。科斯京在一次銀行業論壇上說，俄羅斯還應該轉爲使用盧布開展國際貿易，由俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司(Gazprom)和Rosneft這樣的出口型企業率先採取行動。

Mr. Kostin said that Russia now faces a kind of financial 'cold war' and that Russian institutions should do everything possible to avoid it becoming 'a hot financial war.'

科斯京稱，俄羅斯目前面臨某種金融“冷戰”，國內機構應盡力避免這演變爲“一場金融熱戰”。

Russia is also preparing to create its own rating agency. Valentina Matvienko, the speaker of Russia's upper house of parliament and a target of western sanctions herself, said Wednesday that parliament will meet next week to discuss a national rating agency, which would be objective and independent from the political environment.

俄羅斯還準備成立自己的評級機構。俄羅斯上議院議長、西方制裁對象之一的馬特維延科(Valentina Matvienko)週三表示，議會下週將舉行會議，討論成立一家評級機構的事宜，該機構將客觀地開展工作，不受政治壞境影響。

All three international credit-rating firms--Standard&Poor's, Fitch and Moody's--have downgraded Russia's sovereign rating outlook following Moscow's move to annex Crimea.

在俄羅斯吞併克里米亞後，標準普爾(Standard&Poor's)、惠譽國際評級(Fitch)和穆迪(Moody's)這三大國際評級機構均已下調俄羅斯主權評級前景。