FT社評 特朗普在臺灣問題上挑釁很危險

Most periods between the election of a new US president and the inauguration are relatively quiet, with a bustle of appointment-related activity going on behind the scenes but a lack of hostages to fortune given in public.

新美國總統當選和就職之間這段時間大多比較平靜，一些與任命有關的活動將在幕後忙碌地進行，但不會出現多少會在公開視野內招惹麻煩的事。

As president-elect, Donald Trump seems determined to up-end this tradition. If not necessarily settling on irrevocable policies that will bind him in office, he is setting out a stall that could radically change US strategy.

作爲候任總統，唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)似乎決心顛覆這一傳統。儘管他不一定是在制定一些不可撤銷的、會在他在任時約束他的政策，但他正在擺出的立場可能徹底改變美國的戰略。

It was the turn of Taiwan and its relationship to China on Friday. By taking a single phone call from Tsai Ing-wen, the Taiwanese president, and referring to her by that title, Mr Trump threw 40 years of established practice into question. In fairness, he is right — if indeed this is his aim — to point out America’s contradictory attitude to the self-governed and democratic island.

上週五，輪到了臺灣及美中關係。特朗普接了臺灣總統蔡英文一通電話，並且用她的頭銜來稱呼她，這讓40年來的慣例陷入了不確定之中。平心而論，他正確地指出了美國對這個自治民主島嶼的態度自相矛盾——如果這真是他的目的的話。

But by raising the issue without due consideration, Mr Trump has risked unnecessarily inflaming passions and, in the long term, may have made it harder to recast the relationship with China in a peaceful way.

但在沒有經過充分考慮的情況下提出這個問題，特朗普可能不必要地煽起激烈的情緒，從長期來看，還可能使美國更難以和平方式重塑與中國的關係。

The US attitude to Taiwan since it was set by Jimmy Carter’s administration in 1979 could be described as constructive hypocrisy. America professes to support Taiwanese democracy and sells it arms to defend itself from its powerful neighbour, while at the same time adhering to a “one-China” policy and refusing to recognise Taiwan as an independent country.

自1979年吉米.卡特(Jimmy Carter)政府定調以來，美國對臺灣的態度可以說是一種建設性的虛僞。美國聲稱支持臺灣民主，並對臺出售武器助其抵禦強大的鄰居，同時美國又堅持“一箇中國”政策，拒絕承認臺灣是一個獨立國家。

For a long while, this was a stable position that has kept the peace in a potentially inflammatory situation. But Beijing’s increasingly assertive foreign policy, particularly in the South China Sea, has made it more unstable. The US has looked ever more passive in the region and the timidity of its approach may have emboldened China.

在很長一段時間裏，這是一種穩定的立場，在一種潛在易爆的環境中維持了和平。但中國政府日益強硬的外交政策，尤其是在南中國海事務上，正讓這種立場日趨不穩。美國看起來在該地區日益被動，其策略上的膽怯可能增強了中國的膽量。

The Obama administration reacted to China’s building of artificial islands and militarisation of the South China Sea by sailing some ships and flying a few jets through the region in “freedom of navigation” exercises. China shrugged off these actions and carried on building military bases in the disputed waters.

奧巴馬政府對中國修築人工島和將南中國海軍事化的反應是，以“航行自由”名義派遣一些艦隻和幾架飛機通過該地區。中國對這些行動不予理睬，繼續在爭議水域修建軍事基地。

Beijing’s initial response was to downplay news of the phone call. Unless Mr Trump doubles down on the provocation, China may simply bide its time and wait for him to enter the Oval Office, assuming this is the action of someone who has not had time to consider the issues at length.

中國政府對這通電話的初步反應是低調處理相關新聞。除非特朗普變本加厲地挑釁，否則中國可能只會靜待特朗普入主白宮橢圓形辦公室(Oval Office)，認爲這是一個沒有時間充分考慮這些問題的人採取的行動。

But it could also decide not to take such a sanguine view, and instead retaliate — if not directly on the Taiwan issue, perhaps with regard to other sensitive areas of US foreign policy in east Asia. Despite Mr Trump’s insistence that the Taiwanese president had called him, not the other way round, the conversation apparently has been in the planning among Mr Trump’s staff. It may represent a newly hawkish attitude to China, rather than simple inexperience.

但中國也可能不採取如此樂觀的看法。它可能會進行報復——即使不是直接針對臺灣問題，也可能與美國對東亞外交政策的其他敏感領域有關。儘管特朗普堅稱電話是由臺灣總統打來、而不是他打過去的，但這次通話顯然在特朗普的工作人員的計劃之內。這可能代表了一種針對中國的新鷹派態度，而不是簡單的缺乏經驗。

Mr Trump should wait until he has had a chance to consult across government before setting off in a radically different direction with regard to one of America’s most important and most delicate foreign policy relationships. With China throwing its weight around in the region, there is a good case for reviewing whether deliberate ambiguity can remain a sustainable US policy towards Taiwan. But provocative phone calls and combative tweets from a president-elect are emphatically not the way to proceed.

在處理美國最重要同時也最微妙的外交關係之一時，特朗普應該在走上截然不同的方向前等待，直到他有機會與政府各部門進行協商。由於中國現在在該地區四處展示實力，因此重新審視蓄意模糊是否仍是可持續的美國對臺政策是有充分理由的。但候任總統帶有挑釁意味的通話和好鬥的Twitter帖子顯然不是恰當的行事方式。

Diplomacy is best conducted behind closed doors, and face to face, by an administration in power. Mr Trump should pause before setting his country on a confrontational path that may prove counter-productive.

外交最好是關起門來，由在任者面對面進行。在把美國置於對峙道路前，特朗普應該暫時停下來，因爲這種做法可能會被證明是適得其反。