G20會議公告背後的博弈
Officials from Europe and other leading economies are Mounting a campaign to draw Donald Trump and his administration towards the mainstream on trade and currency policy ahead of international economic talks in Germany this week.
歐洲和其他主要經濟體的官員們在本週德國國際經濟會議召開之前展開造勢，試圖將唐納德特朗普(Donald Trump)及其政府在貿易和貨幣政策上的立場拉回主流。Steven Mnuchin, US Treasury secretary, will meet fellow Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers in the spa town of Baden-Baden beginning on Friday. The gathering comes amid uncertainty over Mr Trump’s anti-globalisation ethos and will be a test of international efforts to pull the US president away from the protectionist “America First” agenda he has set out ahead of G7 and G20 summits in May and July.
20國集團(G20)財長和央行行長會議將於本週五在德國溫泉城巴登-巴登開幕。美國財長史蒂文姆努欽（Steven Mnuchin，上圖）將與出席峯會的其他財長和央行行長會晤。此次G20會議在圍繞特朗普反全球化信條的不確定性中召開，它將對國際社會的如下努力構成考驗：在5月的七國集團(G7)峯會和7月的G20峯會召開之前，讓這位美國總統放棄他已啓動的“美國優先”保護主義議程。
Mr Mnuchin is expected by many G20 officials to strike a more emollient tone than the US president — as he has in recent public statements over China and the US dollar. This contrasts with Mr Trump's more aggressive complaints about Beijing as a “grand champion” of currency manipulation and the dollar’s high valuation.
許多G20官員預計，姆努欽的語氣將比特朗普和緩——姆努欽最近關於中國和美元的公開言論，就比特朗普更爲咄咄逼人的抱怨要和緩。特朗普將中國稱爲匯率操縱的“總冠軍”，並抱怨美元的高估值。
But wrangling over the contents of the post-meeting communiqué highlights the tensions between the Trump administration and other G20 members who are fighting to preserve longstanding language opposing protectionism.
但圍繞會議後公告的爭吵突顯出特朗普政府和其他G20成員國之間的緊張關係，後者堅決主張維持長期以來的反保護主義基調。Nathan Sheets, visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics who until January served as undersecretary for international affairs at the US Treasury, said: “The two issues that will be front and centre are the administration’s view on international trade and their thinking on exchange rates.”
彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)訪問學者納森希茨(Nathan Sheets)表示：“將會成爲焦點的兩個問題是，美國政府對國際貿易的看法以及對匯率的想法。”希茨此前擔任美國財政部負責國際事務的次官(undersecretary)，於今年1月卸任。Early drafts of the communiqué omitted some previous reference to avoiding protectionism and competitive currency devaluations. Asked about this on Thursday, Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, said formal commitments to open borders and floating exchange rates were the “pillar of the stability that has accompanied world growth in the past 20 years”.
G20公告初稿刪除了早先提及避免保護主義和競爭性貨幣貶值的內容。在上週四被問及這一點時，歐洲央行(ECB)行長馬里奧德拉吉(Mario Draghi)表示，對開放邊境和浮動匯率的正式承諾是“伴隨過去20年全球增長的穩定局面的支柱”。By Friday evening, however, the section on avoiding competitive devaluations was back in the document, although there was no agreement on what the draft communiqué would say about trade.
然而，到上週五晚間，避免競爭性貶值的內容又回到了文件中，儘管各方仍未就公告草案關於貿易的表述達成一致。Some senior officials said a move by the US to sign up to past G20 pledges to resist protectionism should in some ways be easy for a Trump administration that has been eager to calm fears among allies. “They are not saying they are protectionist. [New US officials] are saying ‘No, no, no. We want free trade, but we won’t be taken advantage of’,” said a senior international official.
一些高級官員表示，讓美國同意過去那些抵制保護主義的承諾，從某種方面對渴望緩解盟友擔憂的特朗普政府並不困難。一位國際高官表示：“他們並不說自己是保護主義者。（新一屆美國官員）說的是，‘不，不，不。我們想要自由貿易，但別想佔我們便宜’。”A report on the state of the global economy prepared by the International Monetary Fund for the Baden-Baden gathering is expected to repeat recent warnings that any move toward protectionism would hurt a global economy caught in a fragile recovery.
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)爲巴登-巴登會議準備的全球經濟狀況報告，預計會重複最近的警告，即任何保護主義舉措都將傷害脆弱復甦的全球經濟。Mr Mnuchin has demanded the IMF engage in frank and candid analysis of other countries’ exchange rate policies amid concerns the US is being hurt by other nations’ practices.
在一些人擔心美國正受到他國做法傷害之際，姆努欽要求IMF對其他國家的匯率政策進行坦率而公正的分析。Conflicting signals from the Trump administration have left overseas partners scrambling to anticipate US economic policy choices. One official with knowledge of the G20 discussions said: “There is no immediate crisis, and that gives them [the US] some breathing space. But the rest of the world would like to see where they stand.”
特朗普政府發出的相互矛盾的信號，讓海外夥伴競相預測美國的經濟政策選項。一位瞭解G20討論內容的官員表示：“沒有迫在眉睫的危機，這給了他們（美國）一些緩衝空間。但其他國家希望看到他們的立場。”Mr Mnuchin will enter talks with a skeleton team and policies that are in the early stage of formation. Mr Trump has yet to name a head of international affairs at the US Treasury, making cross-border engagement more difficult.
姆努欽將會帶着最基本的人馬和仍處於形成初期階段的政策參與談判。特朗普迄今還沒有任命美國財政部負責國際事務的官員，這讓跨境事務更難以開展。Matthew Goodman, a former White House official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Mr Mnuchin appeared to be in the mould of James Mattis, US defence secretary, and Rex Tillerson, secretary of state, suggesting he may attempt to offer a “reassuring face” to America’s partners.
白宮前官員、如今任職華盛頓戰略與國際研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的馬修古德曼(Matthew Goodman)表示，姆努欽似乎與美國國防部長詹姆斯馬蒂斯(James Mattis)和國務卿雷克斯蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)是一類人，暗示姆努欽可能會嘗試向美國的合作伙伴擺出“撫慰表情”。“He seems to have more conventional views based on what he has said so far — this will be a test of that hypothesis,” Mr Goodman said.
古德曼說：“從他到目前爲止的言論來看，他似乎有着更爲傳統的觀點——眼下將是對那種假設的考驗。”However, he added: “It will offer some comfort to G20 partners, but perhaps not complete comfort. It will leave some doubt as to what the real position of the administration is going to be specific issues they are dealing with.”
然而，他補充稱：“這將向G20的夥伴們提供一些慰藉，但或許不會完全令人放心。依然會有一些人懷疑特朗普政府在……他們處理的特定問題上的……真實立場會是什麼。”On Friday, one senior US official signalled the Trump administration had yet to whether the G20 should remain the pre-eminent forum for international co-operation, saying “we don’t have any predisposed position”.
上週五，一位美國高級官員暗示稱，特朗普政府還沒有就G20是否應該繼續充當國際合作的主要論壇做出決定，他說，“我們沒有任何預設立場”。Host Germany is also unclear what the new US administration will bring and is braced for talks about its trade surplus with the US — something Peter Navarro, Mr Trump’s trade adviser, has denounced.
東道主德國也不清楚特朗普政府將會帶來什麼影響，並已準備好就其貿易順差與美國展開談判——美國貿易顧問彼得納瓦羅(Peter Navarro)譴責了德美之間的貿易順差。Wolfgang Schuble, German finance minister, has said he and Mr Mnuchin would discuss the usual range of topics as they get to know one another. But he also made clear that relationships were moving into unknown territory.
德國財長沃爾夫岡朔伊布勒(Wolfgang Schuble)表示，他和姆努欽將會討論通常範圍的議題，逐步瞭解彼此立場。但他也明確表示，兩國關係正走向未知領域。“The election in the US had a lot of elements that were very unfamiliar — to put it politely — to people in Europe and in Germany and that we wouldn’t want to imitate,” Mr Schuble said. “The US voted, and we will work with the people they elected as well as possible. International co-operation will continue.”
朔伊布勒表示：“（婉轉地說）美國的選舉包含許多讓歐洲人和德國人感到非常陌生、我們不會想要模仿的元素。美國舉行了選舉，我們將會盡力與他們選舉出來的人合作。國際合作將會繼續。”Additional reporting by Stefan Wagstyl in Berlin
斯蒂芬韋格斯蒂爾(Stefan Wagstyl)柏林補充報道
