4G風暴來襲 它能給中國帶來什麼?

Forget the breathless coverage of China Mobile offering the iPhone for a moment. Yes, it's huge news for China's biggest wireless carrier and Apple (AAPL) -- and we've heard plenty to the point. But the real game changer for China is another mobile milestone that's nearly as imminent: the rollout of the faster wireless network standard 4G.

中國移動（China Mobile）即將發佈iPhone的消息鋪天蓋地，讓人喘不過氣來。誠然，對於世界最大的運營商中國移動和蘋果公司（Apple）而言，這絕對算得上是大新聞，可惜大家早就聽膩了。近來對於中國移動通信界真正的里程碑事件是——4G網絡牌照即將發佈。

People elsewhere in the world take 4G for granted. I should know -- I once did. After 4G came to New York, my smartphone became faster than my PC. I watched Netflix (NFLX) on my iPhone. Google Maps (GOOG) search was instantaneous. Newspapers downloaded in seconds.

其它國家的手機用戶對4G網絡已經習以爲常。我以前就是這其中的一員。紐約覆蓋上4G網絡之後，我發現智能手機的上網速度竟然比PC機要快了。我可以在iPhone上觀看Netflix視頻；谷歌地圖（Google Maps）的搜索速度堪稱實時；而下載一份報紙只需要幾秒鐘。

Not so in China. Here, 3G still rules. I moved to Beijing this year, and the downgrade from 4G to 3G was brutal. The same apps weren't the same. Google Maps? Acceptable, but not great. Apple Newsstand: painfully slow. Yahoo Fantasy Football (YHOO) ... well, just don't wait to set your rosters.

但在中國，大行其道的仍是3G。我今年去北京時親身體會了一把從4G降級至3G後的速度。同樣的應用程序彷彿變了個樣。谷歌地圖？反應勉強能接受。蘋果報刊雜誌應用？速度相當悲劇。至於雅虎（Yahoo）夢幻足球遊戲，就這速度還想排兵佈陣？

The 4G rollout in China has progressed in fits and stops. China Mobile (CHL) announced in 2012 that it would upgrade its systems to TD-LTE, a 4G standard, only to be rebuffed by government officials who worried the technology was not mature enough for the market. Delays ensued. 4G was wait-listed until now.

4G在中國可謂一波三折。中國移動早在2012年就宣佈將升級至TD-LTE 4G網絡。但由於監管部門認爲當時的4G技術不夠成熟，無法推向市場，中國移動只好作罷。這一拖就拖到了現在。

Last week, China took the official step of granting 4G licenses to the three big state-owned carriers, China Mobile, a giant among giants with 60% of China's mobile market, China Unicom (CHU), second-largest with little over 20% share, and No. 3 China Telecom (CHA). The 4G switch is flipped on Dec. 18, when big cities will fire up the new network. (In a nod to the potential 4G offers, the Party has turned supportive. There's little talk from carriers about the cost of licenses from the government, compared to the Western world where carriers spend tens of billions on new spectrum.)

上週，中國工信部正式向三大國有運營商——中國移動（中國移動通信市場上的老大，約佔據60%的市場份額）、中國聯通（China Unicom，約佔20%的市場份額）和中國電信（China Telecom）發放4G牌照。4G網絡正式運營時間定在12月18日，屆時一些有條件的大城市可開始切換網絡。（出於對潛在4G網絡的認同，中國政府開始大力支持4G的發展。各大運營商提都沒提政府收取4G牌照費用的事，這與西方運營商動輒花費數百億美元購買頻譜資源簡直是天淵之別。）

Insiders say by mid-2014, the country should be far along in adopting 4G. I met one of those insiders last night at a press event for Huawei, the Chinese maker of telecom equipment that is now competing in smartphones and tablets. (Hence, the press mixer. The company previously had little need for reporters because of its business-to-business focus.)

業內人士表示，到2014年年中，中國4G網絡的普及將取得很大進展。我上週四晚上在華爲（Huawei）召開的新聞發佈會上就見過一位這樣的知情人士。華爲是中國最大的通信設備製造商，如今還運營智能手機和平板業務。（這家公司這次召開新聞發佈會也是一個拼盤。華爲此前沒什麼必要同媒體打交道，因爲它面向的主要是企業客戶。）

Qiu Heng is TDD Network Vice President at Huawei, part of the company's 4G team. I asked Heng what's been the most difficult part of China's 4G rollout, seeing as it's coming three years after 4G was adopted in the U.S. and Japan. He thinks about it for a moment. "There has been no difficulty," he says. This sounds improbable, and it is.

華爲TDD產品線副總裁邱恆是華爲4G團隊的一員。鑑於中國採用4G網絡比美國和日本晚了三年，我問邱恆在中國部署4G網絡的過程中，最大的難點是什麼。他想了想，說：“沒有遇到什麼困難。”這話着實令人難以置信。

But it's true that Huawei has worked out the 4G kinks in its equipment in Japan. The 4G release in China, now that it's been officially sanctioned, should be smooth, despite the massive numbers involved. China Mobile, for instance, needs to upgrade more than 200,000 base stations. (Heng points out the U.S. and Japan combined have 150,000 stations.) Software upgrades and minor hardware modifications to existing stations are enough to support 4G using Huawei's technology. Reports put China Mobile's cost of station upgrades at $3 billion.

不過，華爲在日本確實成功推出了4G設備。既然4G網絡在中國已經正式獲批，那麼儘管涉及的基站數目龐大，4G網絡的推出仍然應當十分順利。舉例來說，中國移動需要升級20多萬個基站。（邱恆指出，美國和日本總共纔有15萬座基站。）藉助華爲的技術，只需對現有基站進行軟件升級和小的硬件改造，就能支持4G網絡。報道稱，中國移動的基站升級成本約爲30億美元。

This is a game changer, Heng says. For the first time Chinese consumers will be able to consistently watch video on their phones. Mobile shopping, already popular, should grow faster with faster speeds. Media, entertainment, and other commerce should all experience a new era in China.

邱恆稱4G網絡的普及將帶來顛覆性的影響。中國消費者將能夠在手機上持續的觀看視頻。已經流行的手機購物將加速發展。媒體、娛樂以及中國的其他行業都將進入一個新的時代。

Bigger than the iPhone release, I ask Heng? He nods his head yes.

我問邱恆，4G網絡是不是比中國移動開賣蘋果iPhone的意義還要重大？他點頭表示贊同。