倫敦的未來 衰落還是轉型(下)

European enclave

歐洲飛地

Another model for London would be for it to assert the European identity it has developed in the past 20 years by becoming a European enclave within an otherwise Eurosceptic Britain. The model for that is West Berlin, which survived as an enclave in hostile East Germany after the Berlin Wall was built. West Berlin was connected to West Germany by a narrow strip of railway line; that role would be assigned to the high-speed line to the Channel tunnel.

對倫敦來説，還有一條路。那就是堅守過去20年來形成的歐洲身份認同，成為一塊歐洲的飛地，即使英國其他地區都懷疑歐洲。西柏林就是一個例子。在柏林牆修建起來以後，西柏林就成了敵意重重的東德中的一塊飛地。西柏林僅僅依靠一條狹長的鐵路線與西德聯繫；而穿越英吉利海峽隧道的高速鐵路將扮演起這個角色。

London could only become a European enclave thanks to quite a lot of creativity about what it means to be a citizen. As proposed by Rohan Silva, founder of the tech co-workspace Second Home, London could have its own visa system, which would allow for freedom of movement between London and the EU, so long as people lived and worked in London. Presumably this would have to be matched by complex arrangements over London’s access to the single market and contributions to the EU budget. One leading London politician described the visa plan thus: “It is an absolutely bonkers idea. We are 100 per cent behind it.”

只有在定義公民方面發揮極大創意，才有可能使倫敦成為一個歐洲飛地。科技共同工作空間Second Home創始人羅恩•席爾瓦(Rohan Silva)提議，倫敦可以實施一套自己的簽證制度，允許人員在倫敦和歐盟之間自由流動，只要人們在倫敦生活和工作。那麼，在倫敦進入單一市場和對歐盟財政的貢獻方面，想必需要複雜的安排來作為配套。倫敦的一名主要政治人士對這個簽證計劃的描述如下：“這絕對是一個瘋狂的主意。我們100%支持。”

The UK might have to reimagine London as a “special European economic zone”, much as Shenzhen was China’s portal to the rest of the world. An alternative might be that London, like US immigration gateway cities such as Charlotte, North Carolina, could create its own identity card to entitle people to use local services even if they do not have full citizenship. People who did not get past the new points-based immigration system would be like the metics in ancient Athens: aliens who were permanently resident in the city.

英國可能不得不再次把倫敦想象成“歐洲經濟特區”，就像深圳作為中國面向世界其他地方的門户一樣。一個替代方案是，倫敦可以效仿像美國北卡羅來納州的夏洛特(Charlotte)這樣的移民門户城市，發放本地區自己的身份證，讓沒有正式獲得英國國籍的人也能使用當地的服務。在積分制移民新政下沒有攢夠分數的人們就像是古代雅典的外邦人：永久居留在這座城市的外來人員。

None of this will be possible, however, unless the UK becomes even more of a patchwork state of devolved powers to nations, regions and cities, something a Theresa May-led government is unwilling to countenance even with former London Mayor Boris Johnson as foreign secretary. George Osborne was the great decentraliser. To force such a shift, London would have to become much more organised politically and mobilise a movement for independence, perhaps in alliance with other pro-European cities like Cambridge, Oxford and Bristol.

然而，除非英國將權力下放給各構成國、各地區和各城市，變成一個更加鬆散的國家，否則以上這些情況都是不可能的。而由特里薩•梅(Theresa May)領導的英國政府並不願支持這種鬆散組合，即使擔任外長的是前倫敦市長鮑里斯•約翰遜(Boris Johnson)。前財政大臣喬治•奧斯本(George Osborne)是堅定的去中心化人士。要強行推動這樣的轉變，倫敦的組織形式必須更有政治性，並且發起一場獨立運動，或許還可以和其他親歐洲城市，如劍橋(Cambridge)、牛津(Oxford)、布里斯托(Bristol)聯合起來。

The hovercraft city

漂浮城市

A fourth option would be to imagine London hovering just above the territory of the UK, a global city-state governed by British law, like Singapore.

第四個選項是想象倫敦只是漂浮在英國的版圖之上，受到英國法律管轄的全球化城邦，和新加坡類似。

London will respond to this current crisis in the way a great trading city always does, by following the money. The money is all coming from Asia. The people who see Brexit as an opportunity are Chinese and other Asian investors who want to snap up London property companies, heritage brands and tech companies. Central London at times already resembles Dubai-on-Thames. It could become Shangdon.

對於當前的危機，倫敦會以一個偉大貿易城市的一貫做法來應對——跟着資金走。目前資金都從亞洲來。把英國退歐視為機會、想要搶購倫敦的地產公司、歷史悠久的品牌和科技公司的，正是中國和亞洲其他地方的投資者。倫敦市中心已經時不時像是泰晤士河上的迪拜。它也可以變成第二個山東。

Seen in this light, Brexit might be a blessing in disguise for London. An ageing Europe is gripped by slow growth and German-led austerity. Employment in banks has already passed its high point as artificial intelligence starts to lay waste to trading floors.

從這個角度來看，英國退歐可能會讓倫敦因禍得福。日漸老齡化的歐洲已經被經濟增長緩慢和由德國主導的緊縮所束縛。銀行的就業高峯已經過去，因為人工智能開始讓交易大廳變成無用之地。

This could be a chance for London to jump on to a different trajectory. Its strength is that it is a pragmatic, commercial trading city that gives shape to whatever forces are running through the world. Just as Miami is a largely Latin American city on the southern tip of the US, so London could become an Asian outpost in Europe.

對倫敦來説，這可能是轉向截然不同的發展路徑的機會。倫敦的長處在於它是一個務實的商業貿易城市，可以幫助塑造在世界各地蔓延的任何力量。就像邁阿密大體上是一個位於美國南端的拉美城市，倫敦也可以變成歐洲的亞洲前哨。

This shift would require London to follow its own foreign policy. It would have to be prepared to embrace Asian companies, values and culture in a way it has only played with so far. Shanghai was once a western enclave in China; London might become a Chinese enclave in Europe. We are just getting used to the idea of Chinese tourists; we will have to get used to the idea of Chinese landlords, owners and employers. Suck it up.

這種轉變可能需要倫敦實行自己的外交政策。倫敦必須準備好接納亞洲的企業、價值觀和文化，在這方面，迄今為止倫敦只是漫不經心。上海一度是中國的西方飛地；倫敦也可能變成歐洲的中國飛地。我們正在習慣中國遊客的想法；我們以後也會習慣中國房東、業主和僱主的想法。接受這個事實吧。

Muddling through

挺過危機

The most likely and perhaps the most optimistic scenario is that everyone muddles through, in Europe, in the UK and in London, perhaps with aspects of all four of the previous scenarios in play at the same time. This London would be part of a UK that would still be an associate member of the EU albeit on strained terms. A model for this is Greece and a model for London might be what has happened to Athens.

最有可能發生，同時也是最樂觀的情景是，無論是在歐洲，在英國，還是在倫敦，每個人都湊合着對付過去，與此同時，上述4種情景的一些方面也可能出現。在這種情況下，英國依然是歐盟的準成員，儘管條件會很嚴格，而倫敦是這樣的英國的一部分。對此可參照希臘，倫敦則可以參照雅典。

The Conservative party now faces a challenge not unlike the Syriza-led government in Greece, which threatened to pull out of the eurozone over the punitive terms of the bailout. Syriza, led by Alexis Tsipras, campaigned strongly against the plan, winning elections on that ticket in 2015. However, the exit deal offered by the EU was so unappealing that eventually most of Syriza swallowed its pride and decided to stay in the fold. The party split as a result. Surely the EU will play the UK the same way: offering it a deal so bad that choosing to remain seems the better option.

英國保守黨現在面臨的挑戰與激進左翼聯盟(Syriza)領導的希臘政府所之前面臨的挑戰很相似，後者因為紓困方案中的懲罰性條款威脅退出歐元區。亞歷克西斯•齊普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)領導的激進左翼聯盟激烈反對這一計劃，並藉此在2015年贏得大選。然而，歐盟提出的退出方案太缺乏吸引力，最終大多數激進左翼聯盟人士都放下自尊，決定留在歐盟。結果是該黨出現了分裂。歐盟肯定也會對英國使出這一招：提供一個非常糟糕的方案，使得選擇留歐似乎是一個更好的選擇。

If Brexit negotiations are drawn out; if the Leavers grow remorseful and distracted; if the terms offered are deeply unattractive, then the question of leaving the EU might once again become a dispute confined to the ranks of the Tory party and its splinter groups.

如果英國退歐協商曠日持久地進行下去；如果脱歐人士開始後悔，注意力也被其他事情分散；如果歐盟提供的退歐條款極度缺乏吸引力，那麼退出歐盟的問題可能會再次變成一場侷限在保守黨及其分裂的派別之中的爭論。

Athens, under the leadership of Mayor Giorgos Kaminis, has been a model of civic resilience during these crises. Not only has it had to cope with existential economic and political crises, but with an influx of refugees as well. Athens has come through, albeit with its port of Piraeus majority-owned by the Chinese government, thanks in no small part to a mass of collaborative self-help among citizens to take over the running of parks, public spaces and cultural institutions, inspired by Amalia Zepou, a documentary film-maker-turned-politician. London will have to be like Athens, resilient enough to cope, make do and get through the next few years before something akin to normality and common sense returns.

在市長喬治•卡米尼斯(Giorgos Kaminis)的領導下，雅典在這些危機中成為了城市韌性的典範。雅典不僅需要應對關乎存亡的經濟和政治危機，還要同時應對湧入的難民。儘管比雷埃夫斯港(Piraeus)由中國政府持有多數股權，在紀錄片製作人出身的政治人士阿馬利婭•澤普(Amalia Zepou)的啟發下，市民之間進行大規模的協同自救，接手公園、公共空間、文化機構的運營，這起到了相當大的作用，讓雅典挺過了這些危機。倫敦必須效仿雅典，有足夠的韌性去應對、將就、度過接下來的幾年，直到類似常態和常識的東西再度迴歸。

‘The flour of Cities all’

“眾城之精粹”

Whichever of these scenarios comes to pass, given the shock that London has experienced over the past few weeks, a few things have become clear.

不管今後會發生以上哪一種情景，考慮到倫敦在過去數週經歷的衝擊，有幾點顯而易見。

First, London will need new levels of ambitious, shared leadership and not just from the mayor. London’s universities should be pooling their expertise to chart a better future for the city. Cultural institutions should start programmes to promote European culture and values. London needs to show the world through thousands of everyday acts that the city remains open, a place where minorities are not just succoured but celebrated. This is an extraordinary opportunity for London’s leadership to galvanise a city that was close to self-satisfied complacency. The challenge and so the opportunity is far greater than the easy wicket Mayor Johnson enjoyed with the 2012 Olympics.

首先，倫敦需要全新水準的有抱負的集體領導，不應該只由市長來行使領導權。倫敦的大學應該集思廣益，為這座城市描繪一個更美好的將來。文化機構應該啟動推廣歐洲文化和價值觀的項目。倫敦需要通過成千上萬種日常行動向全世界展示，倫敦依然是一個開放的城市，少數羣體不僅能在這裏得到幫助，還會受到歡迎。在這個已經近乎自鳴得意的城市，現在是該市領導者激發人們行動起來的絕佳機會。其中的挑戰比前倫敦市長鮑里斯•約翰遜在2012年奧林匹克輕易達成目標的過程中遇到的挑戰要大得多，但因此其中的機遇也要大得多。

Second, other European cities tempted to gloat at London’s travails should recognise that the faultline between more cosmopolitan, innovation-driven cities and their more nationalistic, cautious hinterlands now runs around the globe. Major cities in different countries share as much with one another as they do with the nations that host them. There’s a strong case for the recreation of the medieval Hanseatic League of free-trading northern Europe cities, of which London was one. European cities have a strong shared interest in a civic, open, cosmopolitan Europe. If cities are held hostage by the forces of provincial conservatism and nationalism then Europe has no future.

第二，其他忍不住為倫敦的困境而幸災樂禍的歐洲城市應該認識到，更國際化、創新驅動型的城市和更具民族主義色彩、更謹慎的內陸城市之間的斷層線現在貫穿全球各地。不同國家的主要城市之間彼此的共同點，就如這些城市和它們所在國家之間的共同點一樣多。有充分理由重建中世紀歐洲北部城市之間自由貿易的漢薩同盟(Hanseatic League)，倫敦也是當年的漢薩同盟中的一員。一個市民化的、開放、國際化的歐洲非常符合歐洲各城市的共同利益。如果城市被地方保守主義和民族主義的勢力挾持，歐洲就沒有未來。

Third, London has a prodigious capacity for reinvention, precisely because it is messy, slightly chaotic and not overly planned. Above all it must remain a polyglot city, what the 16th-century poet William Dunbar described as “the flour of Cities all”.

第三，倫敦有驚人的再造能力，這正是因為倫敦有些混亂無序，並沒有被過分規劃。最重要的是，倫敦必須保持自己的多語性，就像16世紀的詩人威廉•鄧巴(William Dunbar)所説的，倫敦是“眾城之精粹”（London, thou art the flour of Cities all）。

London is not a place for people to feel sorry for themselves. No one owes the city a living. London must be a city for people excited by mixing with people who are different. Those who find that alarming should live quietly in Arcadian suburbs and provincial towns. Good on them. They should leave London to pursue its own role to give form to the ideas and forces that are remaking the world.

倫敦不是一個適合人們自怨自艾的城市。沒人欠這座城市什麼，以至於必須無償供養它。倫敦必須是這樣一座城市，人們會因為和與自己不一樣的人相處而感到興奮。那些對此感到驚慌的人們應該在郊區和城鎮過着田園牧歌式的平靜生活。這對他們挺好的。他們應該讓倫敦去扮演自己的角色，即塑造在當下改變世界的思想和力量。