惠特拉姆給了我們中國,但現在該做什麼?

This year - the year of Whitlam's death - is the first in which the relationship with China he helped set up is proving to be More challenge than opportunity.

今年是惠特拉姆去世的一年，同時也是他幫助建立的中澳關係被證明挑戰大於機遇的一年。

Gough Whitlam's 1971 visit to China helped build economic ties that have been a boon for Australia. But with China's economy now stumbling, where are we heading? Alan Kohler writes.

高夫·惠特拉姆1971年的中國訪問幫助澳大利亞和中國建立了經濟紐帶，使澳大利亞從中得到了實惠。但是隨着中國經濟蹣跚前行的現狀，我們又將向何去何從？阿蘭·科勒寫道。

When Gough Whitlam visited China in 1971, its GDP was about a tenth of America's and double Australia's.

This week, according to the IMF, and after three decades of nearly 10 per cent compound growth, China's economy is larger than America's (using an exchange rate based on purchasing power parity). And it's more than 10 times the size of Australia's ks in part to Whitlam's historic visit, China has been almost entirely responsible for Australia's 23 years of consecutive growth - not far off the Netherlands' world now China has hit the wall. Growth for the September quarter, out this week, was 7.3 per cent, the lowest growth rate since early 2009 and largely due to exports.

當惠特拉姆1971年訪問中國的時候，那時中國的GDP只有美國的10分之1，只有澳大利亞的2倍。IMF宣佈，在經過30年近10%的複合增長之後，中國的經濟總量（這其中使用的匯率是基於購買力平價的）將於本週超過美國。這同時也是澳大利亞出口的10倍。部分歸功於惠特拉姆的歷史性訪問，澳大利亞23年的連續增長几乎全部歸功於同中國的貿易——距離（打破）荷蘭的世界紀錄已經不遠了。但是現在，中國碰壁了。九月的前3周（不包括本週），中國的增長率是7.3%，這是自2009年來的最低水平，而這主要是因爲出口貿易（量的下降）。

China's growth rate seems inexorably headed for sub-7 per cent, which will send as many shockwaves around the world as US interest rates going up.

And this slowdown does not seem to be the intentional act of central planners in the Communist Party trying to engineer a soft landing, as commonly fact, it's the result of a structural decline in private investment: the sort of vicious cycle that capitalist economies get into when businesses start to fear the private sector in China can see that growth is slowing and are cutting back on investment plans. That's not surprising: the potential return on investment has shrunk dramatically because China's central bank is holding interest rates where they are as growth slows, to control the booming housing market. (Sound familiar?)

中國的經濟增長似乎不可避免地走向了7%之下，而這一現象將會比美國利率上升在全世界激起更多波瀾。並且，不同於普遍的認知，這次的經濟增長的下降並不像是GCD中央決策人試圖使中國經濟軟着路而有意爲之。事實上這是私人投資結構性下降的結果：這就是當企業開始擔心未來的時候，資本主義會走進的那種惡性循環。中國的私營機構可以看到經濟增長的放緩，並且正在削減投資計劃。這並不奇怪：由於中國央行通過操縱利率（讓利率增長緩慢）來控制飛漲的房地產市場，所以潛在的投資回報大幅縮水（聽起來很熟悉？）。

It's true that China's state-owned enterprises still represent about a third of the economy, more than the typical 5 per cent in most developed countries foll owing the 1990s wave of privatisations around the that leaves two-thirds of the economy in private hands - more than enough to bring the economy down if they pull in their 's more, the state-owned sector is crippled with debt. According to private research house, Gavekal Dragonomics, the average debt-to-equity ratio of state-owned firms is now 87 per ing in the private sector is less than 60 per cent, down from 77 per cent in 2006, so they could borrow to invest ... if they wanted with the property market looking increasingly unstable and GDP growth slowing more than the government had forecast, they are more inclined to wait.

沒錯，中國國有企業仍然佔有經濟的三分之一，這一比例高於私有化浪潮之後發達國家國有企業典型的經濟佔有率——5%。但中國仍然有3分之2的經濟屬於私有經濟，如果這些私人企業止步不前的話，那麼這三分之二的份額就足矣使得中國經濟下滑。

更加嚴重的是，國有企業的那三分之一已經被債務纏身。根據Gavekal Dragonomics這傢俬人研究機構的調查，中國國有企業的平均負債與收益比爲87%。摩拳擦掌的私人部分的負債與收益比從2007年的77%降到了目前的小於60%，所以，如果他們想，他們就可以借錢繼續投資。但是由於房地產市場的越來越不穩定，以及GDP的放緩超出政府的預計，他們（私人企業）更傾向於等待。

Fear of a property crash and banking crisis is not only weighing on the Chinese economy by keeping interest rates up and undermining investment, it's also causing concern around the world. For example, Moody's recently warned that a "housing downturn in China could derail the global recovery".

China's GDP growth peaked in 2007 at close to 15 per cent, crashed in 2008 to 6.5 per cent, was boosted by the world's greatest fiscal stimulus back to 12 per cent, and has sagged back to the mid 7's and has more or less stayed there ever since.

Of course China's economy is much bigger now: 7 per cent growth in 1971 (which is what it was) was worth an extra $US6.9 billion in output; today it's more than $700 billion over, unless there is a catastrophic banking crisis (not impossible), economic growth is unlikely to crash given the strength of domestic consumption and the microeconomic reforms needed to free up the private sector and boost investment are not happening, partly because president Xi Jinping's administration is so focused on stamping out astounding success of the e-commerce firm, Alibaba, makes it seem like there's a wave of entrepreneurial success going on, and there has apparently been a surge in the number of new companies being registered in China, but that's not yet showing up in the private investment data.

出於對房地產崩盤和金融危機的恐懼，（其他國家）持續增加匯率且削減投資，中國經濟從而受到拖累。而這也引起了世界範圍的關注。比如穆迪近日就曾經警告說“中國房市的低迷有可能破壞全球經濟復甦（的進程）”。

中國GDP增長於2007年達到峯值的15%，於2008年降至最低的6.5%。然後（中國的GDP）被世界上最大的財政刺激措施提振回到了12%，且自此以後下降並保持在7.5%左右。當然，中國經濟目前的體量比當年大多了：1971年的7%的增長（中國曾經的GDP增長率）相當於增加了69億美元，而如今7%的增長則相當於增加了7千億美元。

另外，考慮到中國國內消費和出口的實力，除非出現了災難性的金融危機（並非不可能），否則中國的經濟增長不太可能停下來。但是由於Xi的上臺後嚴抓腐敗，所以微觀經濟改革中需要的解放私營部門，促進投資的事情並沒有發生。

網絡公司阿里巴巴驚人的成功讓我們覺得一波創業企業成功的浪潮正在襲來。而且顯然，在中國新註冊公司的數量正在激增。但是我們目前並不知道私企投資的數據。

China's economic growth is not about to recover in a hurry and is likely to be below 7 per cent next year.

That means commodity prices will also stay low for some time and Australia's terms of trade will continue to h Whitlam's visit in 1971 opened up diplomatic relations with China and began 40 years of rewarding trade for Australian businesses with almost uninterrupted national income growth. In many ways, it was his most significant economic year - the year of Whitlam's death - is the first in which the relationship he helped set up is proving to be more challenge than opportunity.

中國的經濟增長並不是急匆匆的恢復，並且明年的增長很可能會低於7%。這就意味着大宗商品價格也將保持低位一段時間，澳大利亞的貿易（量）將繼續下降。

1971年惠特拉姆的訪問開啓了澳大利亞和中國的建交。並且爲澳大利亞帶來了40年的對澳大利亞企業有益的貿易與幾乎沒有中斷的國民收入增長。從各種方面來說，這是惠特拉姆最顯著的經濟作爲。而今年——惠特拉姆去世的這一年——是他幫助建立的中澳關係被證明挑戰多於機遇的一年。