人民幣貶值醞釀市場風暴
In a world convulsed by the rising US dollar, the renminbi looks like a haven.
The Chinese currency has slipped just under 1 per cent against the dollar this year, a mere rounding error compared with the Brazilian real’s 14 per cent tumble and the euro’s 12 per cent slide.
今年，人民幣兌美元匯率僅僅下滑了不到1%，與巴西雷亞爾14%的跌幅和歐元12%的下滑幅度相比，降幅只能算零頭。But for a currency long seen as lacking a reverse gear, a recent drop to a 28-month low is nonetheless gaining attention, with some predicting far more severe problems down the road.
不過，由於人民幣長期被視爲沒有“倒車檔”（只升不降），因此當人民幣匯率跌至28個月內低點時，還是引起了極大關注。一些人預計，更嚴重的問題即將發生。
Expectations of more depreciation are becoming firmly entrenched, even after China posted record trade surpluses in January and February. Such surpluses typically result in upward pressure on the renminbi, as exporters convert their dollar earnings into the local currency.
儘管今年1月和2月中國公佈了創紀錄的貿易順差，對於人民幣會進一步貶值的預期還是在被更多人接受。而在往常，這種貿易順差通常會爲人民幣帶來上行壓力，因爲出口商會將其美元收益兌換成本國貨幣。The current slide is not a re-run of last year’s brief, unforeseen dip. Exactly a year ago, the People’s Bank of China appeared to engineer a weaker renminbi, which analysts said was designed to spook currency speculators with leveraged bets on one-way appreciation.
人民幣匯率目前的下滑，並非去年出人意料的短暫下跌行情的重演。就在整整一年以前，中國央行(PBoC)似曾導演過一次人民幣走弱行情。分析師表示，當時的舉措旨在嚇阻以槓桿方式單向押注人民幣升值的投機者。Having shaken the trees for a couple of months, the central bank then stood back as the currency rebounded over the summer, returning to its decade-long upward path.
在如此操作了幾個月之後，中國央行在去年夏天撤出，任由人民幣反彈，重返其持續了十年之久的上行路線。But since late October, the renminbi has been falling again, losing 2.2 per cent against the dollar. This time the move seems driven by the market, not the PBoC, meaning that few expect any imminent change in course. Some analysts expect the trend to accelerate.
然而，自10月底以來，人民幣匯率再次出現下跌，兌美元匯率跌去了2.2%。這一次的行情似乎是市場驅動而不是央行推動的。也就是說，幾乎沒人認爲人民幣的走向會立刻發生改變，部分分析師甚至預計這一趨勢還會加速。Kevin Lai, chief Asia economist at Daiwa Securities, sees serious trouble brewing as the multiyear carry trade of borrowing cheaply in US dollars and investing in China comes to a bumpy end. He estimates that Chinese companies have borrowed more than $2tn over the past few years, much of it used for currency speculation — a gamble that will no longer pay off once the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates.
大和證券(Daiwa Securities)首席亞洲經濟學家賴志文(Kevin Lai)認爲，隨着流行多年的低成本借入美元並投資中國的套利交易模式突然結束，市場中正醞釀一場風暴。據他估計，中國企業在過去幾年已借得逾2萬億美元資金，其中大量被用於貨幣投機。一旦美聯儲(FED)提高利率，這種賭博就不再有利可圖。“The renminbi is the most overcrowded trade in financial history,” he says. “If the renminbi moves down another 5 per cent, it’s going to be a big deal. It could spark a lot of selling and market panic.”
他說：“人民幣交易是金融史上參與人數最多的交易。人民幣匯率再降5%將會出現大麻煩，它將引發大舉拋售和市場恐慌。”A survey by Société Générale failed to find anyone who thought the renminbi would rise against the dollar in the coming 12 months, while 42 per cent of respondents believed that the PBoC would “actively seek depreciation” of the currency in response to declines in the yen and the euro.
法國興業銀行(Société Générale)開展的一項調查發現，沒人認爲今後12個月內人民幣兌美元匯率會上升。42%的回覆者相信，爲應對日元和歐元的貶值，中國央行會“積極尋求（人民幣）貶值”。Chinese companies themselves appear to agree. Data released last week showed that foreign exchange deposits in China rose at the fastest pace on record in January, a sign that corporations are choosing to hold on to their US dollar earnings in anticipation of a continued slide in the renminbi. Overall forex deposits rose $82.3bn during the month, compared with an increase of $134bn for the whole of 2014.
中國企業本身似乎也認同這一觀點。上週發佈的數據顯示，1月中國外匯存款出現有記錄以來最快增長，顯示出企業預見到人民幣將繼續下跌，因而紛紛選擇留存自己的美元收入。1月總體外匯存款增加了823億美元，相比而言，2014年全年外匯存款僅增加1340億美元。“Such a massive jump in forex deposits is unprecedented and highly significant,” say Barclays analysts in a report. “We remain of the view that China will accommodate further currency weakness in a gradual fashion.”
“外匯存款大幅迅速增加是前所未有和影響巨大的，”巴克萊(Barclays)分析師在一份報告中稱，“我們仍然認爲中國將會容許人民幣以漸進方式繼續走弱。”Corporate debt is also playing an important role. As the renminbi has fallen, fears have grown of a potential currency mismatch on outstanding offshore bonds and loans. Mainland companies have borrowed heavily in the dollar debt markets over the past few years, much of it short term.
公司債也扮演着重要角色。隨着人民幣下跌，人們越來越擔心離岸未償債券和貸款可能出現貨幣錯配。中國內地企業過去幾年在美元債務市場大舉借債，其中許多是短期債務。About a quarter of China’s outstanding corporate debt is denominated in US dollars, according to Morgan Stanley, compared with just 8.5 per cent of revenue. The bank says exposure to the rising dollar in certain sectors is “significant”, picking out China’s real estate developers and material producers in particular.
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)表示，中國的未償公司債有約四分之一以美元計價，而收入僅有8.5%以美元取得。該銀行表示，某些行業對美元升值的風險敞口“巨大”，特別是中國的房地產開發商和原材料生產商。Pending dollar interest payments are another reason to hold or buy greenbacks.
即將支付到期的美元利息，是中國企業留存或購買美元的另一個原因。Investment outflows have also been accelerating.
投資外流也在加速。In the fourth quarter of last year, $91bn flowed out of China, up from $56.7bn in the previous quarter. As the prospect of a US rate rise by the Fed draws nearer, even more “hot money” is expected to flee emerging markets and seek a home in dollar assets. China is not immune, despite its tightly managed currency controls.
上年第4季度，有910億美元資本流出中國，高於前一個季度的567億美元。隨着美聯儲升息前景逼近，更多“熱錢”預計將會逃離新興市場，尋求配置美元資產。儘管實行嚴格的外匯管制，但中國也無法倖免。Meanwhile China’s economic picture — exports aside — remains cloudy. The country’s growth target was officially lowered to “around 7 per cent” last week, while two rate cuts since November indicate increased unease among policy makers over the threat of deflation.
與此同時，中國除出口外的經濟圖景仍不明朗。中國上週已將官方增長目標下調至“7%左右”，而自去年11月以來兩次降息，也顯示出政策制定者日益擔心通縮威脅。Deutsche Bank’s Zhang Zhiwei warns that risks are rising of a “mini hard landing” this year, as monetary policy fails to counter stalled growth.
德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的張志偉警告稱，貨幣政策未能解決增長停滯問題，今年經濟遭遇“迷你硬着陸”的風險日益加大。
