拉加德 美國加息將讓新興市場再陷恐慌

The head of the International Monetary Fund warned yesterday that emerging markets are set to face a renewed period of economic instability when US interest rates rise this year, forecasting a repeat of 2013’s damaging “taper tantrum” episode of capital flight and rapid currency depreciation.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)總裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)週二警告說，今年美國加息時，新興市場經濟將再次面臨一段時間的不穩定。她預言新興市場會再次上演2013年時那種具有破壞性的“縮減恐慌”(taper tantrum，指美聯儲宣佈將退出量化寬鬆政策時造成的市場波動——譯者注)，遭遇資本外逃和快速貨幣貶值。

The remarks by Christine Lagarde, given during a speech in India, came as Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen was expected to signal an end to the Fed’s policy of low rates guidance today, with global investors braced for an initial rise in US rates as early as June.

拉加德是在印度的一個講話中發表上述言論的。就在她發表上述言論之際，人們預計美聯儲(Fed)主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)將於週三釋放出結束美聯儲低利率指引政策的信號。目前，全球投資者正在爲美國最早於6月開始加息做準備。

The IMF chief said she feared that negative “spillover” effects from these increases would lead to a re-run of the crisis that hit developing economies such as India and Turkey nearly two years ago, following hints from then Fed chairman Ben Bernanke of an early end to the institution’s bond purchasing programme known as quantitative easing.

拉加德表示，她擔心上述加息的負面“溢出”效應會導致將近兩年前衝擊印度、土耳其等發展中經濟體的危機重演。當年的那場危機，是在時任美聯儲主席的本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)多次暗示將提前結束被稱爲量化寬鬆的債券購買計劃後出現的。

“I am afraid this may not be a one-off episode,” Ms Lagarde said. “The timing of interest rate lift-off and the pace of subsequent rate increases can still surprise markets.”

拉加德表示：“我擔心這次可能不會是一次性的動盪。加息的時機選擇以及後續加息的步伐可能仍會讓市場感到意外。”

Ms Lagarde spoke at an event in Mumbai alongside Raghuram Rajan, Reserve bank of India governor, who has warned repeatedly on the dangers to developing economies of ending loose monetary policy in the US, Japan and other industrialised economies.

拉加德是在孟買與印度央行(Reserve Bank of India)行長拉古拉姆•拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)共同參加一項活動時發表上述講話的。在此之前，拉詹曾多次警告說，美國、日本及其他發達經濟體寬鬆貨幣政策的終結會對發展中經濟體構成威脅。

Developing economies have seen a surge in capital from the industrialised world in recent years, receiving $4.5tn of gross capital inflows between 2009 and 2012, according to IMF data, or half of all global capital flows during that period.

IMF數據顯示，最近幾年從發達經濟體流向發展中經濟體的資金激增，2009年到2012年間，總計有4.5萬億美元資金流入發展中經濟體，佔同期全球資金流動規模的一半。

Ms Lagarde warned that emerging economies faced a second risk from the recent strength of the US currency, with indebted companies that took advantage of low rates to borrow in dollars facing sudden and steep jumps in debt servicing costs.

拉加德警告說，近期美元的走強讓新興經濟體面臨另一個風險。趁美國利率處於低位之機借入美元貸款的企業，會面臨償債成本急劇升高的局面。

India’s corporate sector, which is already dealing with concerns over corporate indebtedness and weak bank capitalisation, was “not immune to this vulnerability”.

目前已在應對企業債務和薄弱銀行資本狀況的印度企業部門，也“不能免受這一問題的影響”。

Dollar-denominated corporate debt had risen “very rapidly, nearly doubling in the last five years” to $120bn.

以美元計價的企業債增長得“極爲迅速，在過去5年裏幾乎翻了一番”，達到1200億美元。

“The appreciation of the US dollar is also putting pressure on balance sheets of banks, firms and households that borrow in dollars but have assets or earnings in other currencies,” she said.

她說：“美元升值還爲某些銀行、企業和家庭的資產負債表帶來壓力，他們的債務以美元計價，資產或收益卻以其他貨幣計價。”

Facing these twin threats, Ms Lagarde urged emerging market governments to enact economic reforms to raise growth, improve their current account positions and gradually liberalise financial ­markets.

拉加德敦促道，面臨上述雙重威脅，新興市場政府應實施經濟改革以提振增長，改善經常賬戶收支狀況，並逐步放開金融市場。

The IMF head also called on emerging market central bank governors to prepare emergency measures to support under-pressure currencies and companies struggling with debt repayments.

拉加德還呼籲新興市場央行的行長準備應急措施，以支撐承壓的貨幣和償債困難的企業。

“Temporary — though aggressive — domestic liquidity support to certain sectors or markets may be necessary, along with targeted foreign exchange interventions,” she said.

她說：“除了有針對性的外匯干預，或許還有必要在國內對某些部門或市場提供臨時但激進的流動性支持。”

In December, the Bank for International Settlements warned there was a risk of a repeat of the late-1990s emerging market crises because of increased cross-border lending to emerging economies since 2008.

2014年12月，國際清算銀行(Bank for International Settlements)曾警告說，1990年代末的新興市場危機有重演的風險，原因是2008年以來對新興經濟體的跨境貸款有所增加。

By the middle of last year, according to the BIS, lending to emerging economies had risen to $3.1tn, most of it denominated in dollars.

國際清算銀行數據顯示，截至去年年中，對新興經濟體的貸款已增至3.1萬億美元，其中多數貸款都是以美元計價的。