債券之王格羅斯 牛市即將結束

You had a tough 2014. In September, you left Pimco, the investment firm you founded in 1971, where you became known as “the bond king.” What was the hardest part about the past year for you? The fact that I was fired. That was hard — very hard — for me, because I’m sensitive. I’m just sensitive to negative criticism — which I think was unfair and unjust. You haven’t been divorced yet, have you?

你的2014有些艱難。9月，你離開了太平洋投資管理公司(Pimco)，也就是你在1971年創辦的投資公司，你在那裏成了衆所周知的“債券之王”。對你而言，過去一年中最艱難的事情是什麼？就是我被解僱一事。因爲我很敏感，所以這對我來說很艱難——非常艱難。我就是對負面批評很敏感，我認爲那都是不公平公正的。你目前還沒離過婚，對吧？

Nope. I’m happily married. Sorry, the “yet” was not appropriate. Just to explain, it’s sort of like divorce. You don’t want to get up and get out of bed. It is depressing, and it was a hard period of time and sort of still is. But it gets better every day. Like when you’re divorced, you have to meet new people, and life goes on.

沒有。我的婚姻很幸福。不好意思，說“目前還沒”不是很合適。我只是想解釋，這件事有點像離婚。你不想起牀，不願意下牀。很沮喪，這段時間很難熬，而且從某種程度而言，至今仍然如此。但是，情況在一天天好轉。就像你離婚之後，還是要去認識人，生活還要繼續。

You have to deal with the market and your business and then your personal life. Are you good at compartmentalizing? I think I’ve been able to do that really well. I don’t know if that’s a positive, but I think I can separate it. I went through a nasty divorce years ago and powered through it while building a business and doing well in the market. Maybe that doesn’t speak to being a well-rounded human being. I don’t know.

你需要同時打理市場、你的生意，然後還有你的個人生活。你擅長區分這些東西嗎？我認爲，我一直處理得非常好。我不知道這算不算有益的事，但我認爲我能區分開來。幾年前，我經歷了一次不愉快的離婚，並竭盡全力地渡過了那個時期；我還創辦了一個企業，在市場上的表現很好。或許這無法說明我是一個面面俱到的人。我也不知道。

As an undergraduate at Duke, you majored in psychology. Do you use what you learned there when you invest? You don’t need a degree in psychology to understand human nature. There was an old dude, Jesse LiverMore, who wrote a great book that said the most important thing in investing was to know yourself — your weaknesses, your flaws and your strengths.

你在杜克大學(Duke)本科學的是心理學。你在做投資的時候，會利用自己所學嗎？要理解人性，你不需要拿心理學的學位。過去有個叫傑西·利弗莫爾(Jesse Livermore)的人，他寫了一本偉大的書，書中稱，投資中最重要的就是了解自己——你的弱點、你的缺陷和你的長處。

The big question on Wall Street right now is when the Fed will raise interest rates. When do you think they’ll go up? Probably sometime this year. You know, if you’re sick in bed, you’re lying around for 24 hours, at some point you just want to get out of bed and walk around the house for a while. And I think the Fed wants to get off zero, if only to get a sense as to whether they can begin the process of getting healthy again.

目前，華爾街面臨的最大的問題就是，美聯儲將在何時提高利率。你認爲利率會何時上漲？可能會在今年。這就像是如果你臥病在牀，一天24小時一直躺在那裏，你有時就是想起牀，在屋子裏走動一會兒。我認爲，美聯儲也想擺脫零利率，即便只是看看他們是否可以開始恢復健康的進程了。

Do you think that this low-interest-rate environment has helped or hurt the economy? The savings side of the economy has been damaged. At 2 or 3 percent interest rates, there’s no way insurance companies and pension funds can justify their liabilities and guarantees going forward. Same thing with Mom and Dad and their expectations for education, retirement and so on.

你認爲這種低利率的環境對經濟有利還是有害？經濟在儲蓄這個層面上受到了損害。在利率爲2%到3%的情況下，保險公司和養老基金根本無法接受他們的潛在保險責任和擔保。有子女的人以及他們對教育、退休等問題的期望都是如此。

So what’s the average person supposed to do? Save more. An investor could also take on more risk. I wouldn’t recommend that, but that is something investors are doing, which suggests there’s a bubble.

那麼，普通人應該怎麼做？把錢更多地存下來。投資者也可以冒更大的險。對此我不推薦，但投資者就是這麼做的，這說明這裏存在泡沫。

Is the bubble in stocks or in bonds? I think both. I sort of have a sense of an ending. I think that the 35-year bull market in bonds and in stocks is ending. Now, when you say something like that, it conjures up a crash. It doesn’t have to be that way. It probably ends, like T. S. Eliot said, with a whimper and not a bang.

泡沫在股票市場還是債券市場？我認爲兩者都有。我隱約感覺結局即將到來。我認爲，債券和股票市場持續了35年的牛市即將結束。現在，如果你說出這樣的話，就會讓人聯想起災難。事情並非總是那樣。正如T· S·艾略特(T. S. Eliot)所說，它的終結或許不是砰的一聲，而是一聲抽泣。

I have to know: Why do you wear your tie like that? I came down here to Orange County in ’71 from L.A., and Pimco had this brand-new, beautiful building, but they didn’t have a gym or showers. I was an exercise nut. At noon, I’d change in the bathroom and then run for about five miles. Since there wasn’t a shower, I’d towel off as best I could, but I’d be sweating and hot for an hour or two. So in the afternoon, I began to just not tie my tie. Then a year or two later, I said: “Well, what the hell, I guess I’m not tying it in the afternoon, I’ll just not tie it in the morning either.”

我很想知道：爲什麼你是這樣戴領帶的？1971年，我從洛杉磯來到奧蘭治縣，Pimco有一棟漂亮的新樓，但他們沒有健身房，也沒有淋浴，而我是運動狂人。下午，我會在洗手間換好衣服，然後跑大概5英里。因爲沒有淋浴，我只好儘量用毛巾擦乾汗水，但是接下來一兩個小時，我還會流汗，而且覺得熱。所以，我下午就開始不繫領帶了。然後過了一兩年，我說：“好吧，管他的，既然下午不繫領帶了，那上午乾脆也不繫了。”

Now you’ve joined Janus Capital Management as portfolio manager. You’re 71. What motivates you to keep doing this? I have an obsessive quality to me. When I left Pimco — or, put it this way, when Pimco left me — it was important to me to prove that they made a mistake.

現在，你作爲投資組合經理加入了駿利資產管理公司(Janus Capital Management)。你已經71歲了。你的動力來自哪裏？我有一點強迫症。當我離開太平洋的時候——或者說當太平洋離開我時——對我來說，有必要證明他們犯了一個錯。

Are you going to do this forever? Well, my wife tells me she married me for better or worse — but not for lunch.

你會一直做這件事嗎？我妻子告訴我，她嫁給我算好事壞事說不好——但肯定不是衝着午餐來的。