中國消費者今年或將捂緊荷包

More potential bad news for the global economic outlook: Chinese shoppers are likely to trim spending this year: dining out less often, delaying smartphone upgrades and cutting out impulse buys. China's economy grew at its slowest rate in a quarter of a century last year.

全球經濟前景可能面臨更多壞消息：中國消費者今年可能削減支出，比如減少外出就餐、推遲更換智能手機，以及停止衝動購物。中國經濟在去年的增長速度是過去25以年來的最低值。

"Chinese consumers came to the rescue in 2015," wrote Tom Rafferty, analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit in Beijing. "Their spending helped offset weakness in industry and investment, the traditional drivers of the Chinese economy."

北京經濟學人信息社分析師Tom Rafferty寫道：“中國消費者在2015年趕來救援。他們的支出有助於抵消了工業及投資疲軟的拖累，工業和投資是中國經濟成長的傳統驅動力。”

There's no guarantee they'll do the same again this year.

但是，現在沒人能保證他們2016年還會這麼做。

A survey by ANZ bank published yesterday showed Chinese consumer confidence at a record low this month, and data from US-based research group's China Beige Book showed fourth-quarter job growth and wage gains at four-year lows.

澳新銀行昨日發佈的一項調查顯示，1月份中國消費者信心指數創下歷史新低。來自美國研究機構的中國褐皮書調查報告數據顯示，四季度中國就業增長及薪資增長都處於四年來的最低值。

Those surveys were echoed by shoppers canvassed by Reuters in Shanghai, who said they would keep their spending in check and more likely cut back.

路透社在上海的一項調查顯示，消費者表示他們會控制消費，且很有可能削減支出。

A man surnamed Zhou said he and his girlfriend spent around 70,000 yuan (US$10,642) last year dining out and another 40,000 yuan on clothes and accessories. He said they plan to cut back by nearly a third this year given the economy. "We'll cook more at home. I may replace my electronic products like mobile phones less frequently," he said.

一位周姓男子表示，去年他和女朋友外出就餐費用約爲7萬元人民幣（摺合10642美元），購買服裝及配飾費用爲4萬元。該男子表示，鑑於目前的經濟情況，2016年他們計劃削減費用開支近1/3。他說：“我們會更多地在家做飯。我可能會不那麼頻繁地更換手機等電子產品。”

"I think the growth of my income cannot catch up with surging prices," said a 30-year-old shopper surnamed Zheng as she browsed through a store's mugs and bedsheets. "These things aren't necessary. I might control myself a little bit try not to go shopping too often."

一位30歲、在商店看杯子和牀單的鄭姓女子說道：“我覺得我的收入增長的速度，無法跟上物價上漲的速度。這些不是必需品。我可能會對自己有所控制……儘量不去過於頻繁地購物。”

"We expect consumer spending growth to ease this year as wage increases moderate," wrote Louis Kuijs, head of Asia Economics at Oxford Economics. Harder hit may be China's elderly, who are seeing health costs eating into disposable income. Caught in the squeeze, too, are China's many small retailers who are entirely dependent on domestic demand for their survival.

牛津經濟研究院亞洲經濟主管高路易寫道："由於薪資增速放緩，我們預測今年消費者支出增速將放緩。"更受衝擊的可能是中國老年人，其保健費用正在耗費其可支配收入。中國許多小零售商也受到擠壓，其生存完全依賴國內需求。