經濟增長數據欠佳 直升機撒錢還不到時候

Against a backdrop of subpar economic growth, and with low oil prices acting as a headwind to inflation, central banks have tried to convince increasingly sceptical investors that they are not out of options to reflate. In this context, “helicopter money” has become more widely discussed.

在經濟增長數據欠佳、低油價抑制通脹的背景下，各大央行正在試圖說服日益狐疑的投資者：他們尚未窮盡通貨再膨脹手段。有鑑於此，“直升機撒錢”(helicopter money)引發了更廣泛的討論。

Helicopter money is associated with the idea of a permanent increase in the money base achieved through a direct transfer of cash to the public (a metaphorical drop of banknotes from the sky), circumventing banking channels, or through overt financing of the fiscal deficit by the central bank. In this way, the public would see that the higher government spending/lower taxes were financed via the printing press, without involving lower spending or higher taxes in the future to repay the debt.

“直升機撒錢”指的是，央行繞過銀行渠道，直接將現金轉移給公衆（好比從天上拋灑鈔票）、或是由央行公開出資填補財政赤字，從而永久性增加基礎貨幣供應量。通過這種方式，公衆看到的是政府增加支出/減稅的資金來自“印鈔機”，而不涉及未來減少支出/增稅來償還債務。

Enthusiasm for more fiscal action when policy rates appear to have reached their lower bound is understandable and supported by economic analysis. What is often missed is that, to some degree, monetary and fiscal policies are already reinforcing one another. This may not be in ways as obvious as advocates of helicopter drops would like, but provides more stimulus than is recognised.

在政策利率似乎已經觸及下限之際，市場期望出臺更多財政舉措是可以理解的，經濟分析也支持這種觀點。人們往往在某種程度上忽視的是，貨幣和財政政策已經在相互加強效果。或許這些效果並不像“直升機撒錢”的擁護者所希望的那麼明顯，但是它們帶來的刺激效果要超過普遍認知。

The hyper-expansionary monetary policy measures introduced in Japan and the euro area — where base money is expanding by the equivalent of 2.5-3.0 per cent of annual nominal GDP every quarter — have both international ramifications and fiscal dimensions.

日本和歐元區引入的高度擴張性的貨幣政策措施（每個季度增加的基礎貨幣供應相當於年度名義國內生產總值(GDP)的2.5%至3.0%）具有潛在的國際影響，對財政方面也有影響。

First, while QE is depressing long-term rates in these two regions (where more than 75 per cent of bills and bonds have negative yield to maturity), this effect is also evident in other advanced economies. Unlike for currencies, where the depreciation of one results in the appreciation of another, the effects of QE through bond markets are a positive sum game, easing financial conditions across the board.

首先，量化寬鬆(QE)在抑制這兩個地區長期利率（超過75%的短期和長期國債的到期收益率爲負）的同時，對其他發達經濟體的影響也是顯而易見的。與匯率不同（一種貨幣貶值必然意味着其他貨幣升值），QE在債券市場傳遞的效應是一種正和遊戲，全面緩解金融狀況。

Second, central banks’ purchases of longer-maturity bonds are also promoting issuance at longer maturities, which lets treasuries lock in lower funding costs for longer.

其次，央行購買較長期債券還正在推動較長期債券的發行，使得國債鎖定更長期的較低融資成本。

All else equal, lower interest bills allow governments to run larger deficits net of interest payments without incurring a “crowding out” of private sector borrowing. The purchase of government bonds by the ECB and the BoJ in the secondary market is now equivalent to more than three times the respective government shortfalls.

在其它條件都不變的情況下，較低的利息賬單使政府可以運行較大的赤字（刨除利息支付後），同時不至於排擠私營部門的借款。如今歐洲央行和日本央行在二級市場購買政府債券的規模相當於各自政府赤字的3倍以上。

At Goldman Sachs, we forecast that discretionary countercyclical fiscal policies in the euro area and Japan will contribute up to 50bp to real GDP growth this year in both .

在高盛(Goldman Sachs)內部，我們預計歐元區和日本自由裁量的反週期財政政策將對各自今年實際GDP增長貢獻50個基點。

Third, central banks have said that both the principal and coupons of the securities that end up on their balance sheets will be reinvested until nominal policy rates are “normalised” (assumed to be 2 per cent). Going by the current forward rates, this entails that the money supply created through the purchase of government debt will not be unwound for at least another decade. This means that over the corresponding horizon a lot of public debt (up to 25-30 per cent) will neither need to be rolled over, nor de facto pay interest outside the consolidated government sector.

第三，各大央行稱，在名義政策利率“正常化”（被假定爲2%）之前，其資產負債表上證券的本金和票息都將用於再投資。按照目前的遠期利率，這意味着通過購買政府債券創建的貨幣供應至少在10年內不會抽回。這進而意味着，在相應時期內，大量公共債務（多達25%-30%）既不需要滾轉，也不需要在合併政府部門以外支付利息。

Our view is that the combined effect of existing stimulative policies will continue to support job creation and a progressive acceleration in retail price inflation. These dynamics are evident in the service price categories and present an opportunity for investors to be long inflation-linked securities. Stepping up the monetary and fiscal/structural response, and smartening their interaction, would be welcome steps. One could envisage, for example, central banks buying ultra-long-dated securities issued by national or supranational entities to fund projects with long-term payouts (in human capital or physical capital areas such as education or infrastructure). Or schemes where central bank funding can help in the recapitalisation of banks as they offload non-performing loans.

我們的觀點是，現有刺激政策的結合效應將繼續支撐就業創造以及零售價格通脹逐漸加速。這種勢頭明顯體現在服務價格類別上，同時給投資者帶來了做多通脹掛鉤證券的機會。加大貨幣政策和財政政策/結構上的迴應力度、並優化政策之間的相互作用，將是可喜的步驟。例如，人們可以設想央行購買由國家或超國家實體發行的超長期證券，資助帶來長期回報（在人力資本或物質資本領域，如教育或基礎設施等）的項目。或者由央行資金幫助銀行進行資本重組的計劃（讓那些銀行剝離不良貸款）。

Making the full transition to an explicit monetisation of government spending (the helicopter drop) would have an even more powerful effect on the public’s expectations. But the risk that this could be destabilising for markets should not be underestimated. Once the fiscal authority has direct access to the printing press, the temptation to continue using it could prove too hard to resist.

將政府支出明確貨幣化（直升機撒錢）會對公衆預期產生更強烈的影響。但是不應該低估這麼做給市場帶來不穩定的風險。一旦財政主管部門可以直接掌控印鈔機，繼續使用印鈔機的誘惑可能無法抵禦。