追逐滴滴出行獨角獸的中國人壽

One year on from China’s stock market collapse, some casualties are still feeling the pain. Shares in Chinese insurer Ping An have halved from their 2015 highs and trade just one-tenth above pre-rally levels. China Life languishes near 2008 lows. Much of the destruction has been due to an ill-timed increase in equity exposure that is unlikely to repeat itself — at least, not this year.

中國股市崩盤已過去一年了，一些受害者還在承受着痛楚。在中國保險公司中，中國平安(Ping An)的股價比2015年的高點下跌了一半，只比大漲前高十分之一；中國人壽(China Life)則在2008年的低位附近徘徊。造成這種慘跌的一部分原因是，它們在錯誤的時機擴大了在股市的敞口——它們不太可能再這麼做了，至少今年不會。

The rise in China’s stock markets came just as the insurers won increased investment freedom. In early 2014, the insurance regulator (CIRC) lifted limits on equity investment from 20 to 30 per cent of assets, including private equity in the basket. As the market rallied, Ping An and China Life raised their equity holdings. After a stellar first half, the second-half market tumble dragged down 2015 results.

中國股市大漲之際，恰逢保險公司獲得更大的投資自由度。2014年初，中國保監會將險資投資權益類資產的比例上限從20%提高到30%，並且允許進行私募股權投資。隨着股市上漲，中國平安和中國人壽增持了股票。在經歷了輝煌的上半年之後，下半年股市的暴跌拖累了它們2015年的業績。

The effects have lingered. In the latest quarter, China Life’s net profits more than halved as investment income fell. Ping An fared slightly better, but Bernstein notes that net profit — which eked out a small gain — was flattered by a lower tax rate; pre-tax profit from insurance fell by around a quarter.

這種影響遲遲沒有消散。在最新一個季度，由於投資收入下滑，中國人壽的淨利潤減少了一半以上。中國平安的情況略好，淨利潤小有增長。然而伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)指出，稅率降低提高了中國平安的淨利潤，其來自保險業務的稅前盈利下滑了大約四分之一。

Still, the selldown seems harsh. Away from the volatility in equities, growth in underlying business has been strong. In 2015 industry-wide premium income grew one-fifth, faster than the prior year. In the first four months of 2016 premiums grew by two-fifths, says the CIRC. Over the weekend, the regulator reiterated government support for the sector as a supplement to China’s social security system. The second half looks good; last year’s wipeout in the equity markets is unlikely to be repeated this year.

不過它們被拋售得有點太猛了。不談所持股票的波動，它們的基礎業務增長強勁。2015年全行業保費收入增長五分之一，增幅高於前一年。中國保監會表示，2016年頭四個月保費增長了五分之二。上週末該監管機構重申政府支持把該行業作爲中國社保體系的補充。今年下半年看起來情況不錯，去年在股市的慘敗在今年也不太可能重現。

There may yet be new risks. On Monday, China Life said it will invest $600m in Didi-Chuxing, China’s ride-hailing service, split between equity and debt. Small beer, for a company with total assets nearing $400bn and equity of $50bn. And Didi offers diversification benefits — just as long as investing in this unicorn isn’t proof that the sector is chasing another value bubble.

或許又出現了新的風險。週一，中國人壽表示將向中國叫車服務滴滴出行(Didi-Chuxing)投資6億美元，包括股權投資和債權投資。對於總資產近4000億美元、淨資產500億美元的企業來說，這筆投資算不了什麼。而且投資滴滴也帶來了多元化的好處——只要對這隻“獨角獸”的投資不會成爲險資追逐另一輪價值泡沫的證據。