一直都是危險角色 核反應堆退役成本或被低估

The bill for closing down and cleaning up the world’s ageing nuclear reactors will exceed $100bn, the leading Energy watchdog will say today, warning that governments risk underestimating the cost.

全球能源監督機構國際能源署(IEA)今日表示，全球用於關閉和清理日益老化的核反應堆的成本將超過1000億美元。它警告說，各國政府可能會低估這一成本。

With almost 200 reactors due to be shut down by 2040, the International Energy Agency says in its annual report there are “considerable uncertainties” about decommissioning costs, reflecting governments’ limited experience in safely dismantling nuclear plants. In the past 40 years, only 10 reactors have been closed down.

國際能源署在其年度報告中表示，按照計劃，2040年前全球將關閉近200座反應堆，由於各國政府在安全拆除核電站方面的經驗有限，這些反應堆的退役成本有“很大不確定性”。過去40年裏，全球只關閉了10座反應堆。

“This is an urgent area that needs consideration,” Fatih Birol, the IEA’s chief economist, told the Financial Times. He called on regulators and utilities to ensure enough funds were set aside to cover future expenses.

國際能源署首席經濟學家法提赫•比羅爾(Fatih Birol)告訴英國《金融時報》：“這是個需要馬上給予關注的領域。”他呼籲監管機構及公用事業企業確保撥出足夠資金，以備未來的開銷。

The estimates for clean-up costs are contained in the IEA’s closely watched World Energy Outlook, which this year includes a comprehensive analysis of the global nuclear industry.

國際能源署發佈的備受關注的《世界能源展望》(World Energy Outlook)中，包含了關於清理成本的預估數字。今年，該報告囊括了一項對全球核電業的全面分析。

It will inevitably raise questions about the economics of nuclear power at a time when countries such as China and the UK are pressing ahead with ambitious reactor-building programmes.

在中國和英國等國大力推進雄心勃勃的反應堆建設計劃之際，該報告將不可避免地引發對核電經濟成本的質疑。

Nuclear energy has been seen by many nations as an effective way of cutting their carbon dioxide emissions, as well as reducing their dependence on expensive energy imports.

許多國家都將核能視爲減少二氧化碳排放量、降低對高成本能源進口依賴程度的有效手段。

But governments pursuing nuclear expansions have long been criticised for underplaying the lifetime costs of operating reactors, which include shutting them down and cleaning up their sites.

但長期以來，一直有人批評各國政府在推進核電發展的過程中低估了反應堆整個生命週期的運營成本，其中包括關閉反應堆和清理現場的成本。

Critics have also pointed to the issue of safety, which was dramatically underscored by the Fukushima disaster in 2011, and the still unresolved question of how to dispose of radioactive nuclear waste. The IEA said the amount of spent nuclear fuel would double to more than 700,000 tonnes by 2040. But even now, Mr Birol noted, “some 60 years after the first nuclear power plant started operation, no country has yet opened a permanent disposal facility for commercial high-level waste”.

批評人士還將矛頭指向了安全問題以及仍未得到解決的放射性核廢料的處置問題。2011年的福島(Fukushima)核災難，就凸現出核電的安全問題。國際能源署表示，到2040年，全球核廢料將增加一倍，達到逾70萬噸。但比羅爾指出，即使是現在，“在首座核電站開始運營大約60年後的今天，仍然沒有哪個國家爲商用高放射性核廢料設立永久性處置設施”。

Paul Dorfman, of the Energy Institute at University College London, an outspoken critic of nuclear power, noted that the IEA’s $100bn figure is only for decommissioning and does not include the costs of permanent waste disposal.

倫敦大學學院(University College London)能源研究所(Energy Institute)的保羅•多爾夫曼(Paul Dorfman)是一位直言不諱的核電批評人士。他指出，國際能源署給出的1000億美元的數字，只包括退役核電站的成本，未包括永久性處置核廢料的成本。

“The UK’s own decommissioning and waste disposal costs are £85bn alone, so that gives you an idea of the astronomical costs associated with nuclear,” he said.

他說：“僅英國一國退役核電站和處置核廢料的成本就達到850億英鎊，可想而知，與核電有關的成本是個天文數字。”

But Andrew Sherry, director of the Dalton Nuclear Institute at Manchester University, said the surge in decommissioning reactors will “spur” the sector to find ways to generate less radioactive waste.

不過，曼徹斯特大學(Manchester University)道爾頓核研究所(Dalton Nuclear Institute)主任安德魯•謝里(Andrew Sherry)表示，退役反應堆數量的激增會“鞭策”該行業找到辦法，來生成放射性較低的核廢料。

Addressing broader concerns around global energy security, Mr Birol stressed that despite a well-supplied oil market, production may fall short of expectations in 2020 and beyond: “Short-term conditions should not blind us to the problems that may be around the corner [as the world increasingly relies on only a handful of producers]”.

在提到人們對全球能源安全的更廣泛關注時，比羅爾強調，儘管石油市場供應充足，但2020年及以後，石油產量可能達不到人們的預期：“（在全球日益依賴少數產油國之際，）我們不應被短期狀況矇蔽雙眼、看不到即將到來的問題。”

US shale oil production will begin levelling off at the start of the next decade, developing Brazil’s deepwater fields will be a complex and capital intensive process and the lack of investment amid security risks in regions such as Iraq, will all contribute to greater stress on the oil market, he said.

他說，美國頁岩油產量將在下個十年之初開始企穩，巴西深水油田的開發將是一個複雜的過程，需要大量資本投入，伊拉克等地區則因安全風險而缺乏投資，所有這些因素都將加大石油市場承受的壓力。