中國官員解釋推遲放棄一孩政策原因
China delayed scrapping its one-child policy out of fear that the population would expand too rapidly, a senior official said on Tuesday — despite the fact demographers say the birth rate was already dwindling before it was introduced in 1979.
一位高級官員週二表示，中國推遲放棄一胎化政策是出於對人口會過快增長的恐懼——儘管人口學家們表示，在1979年出臺該政策之前，中國的人口出生率已經在下降。
Beijing decided last month to relax the restriction — one of the most draconian social experiments in modern history and for long the focus of criticism overseas and resentment at home — and allow all couples to have two children.
北京方面上月決定放寬限制，允許所有夫婦生育兩個孩子。一胎化政策是現代史上最嚴厲的社會實驗之一，幾十年來一直是海外批評和國內不滿的焦點。
The government has been under domestic pressure to end the policy, which has contributed to an ageing society and a shortage of workers.
中國政府一直在國內受到壓力，要求其終結一胎化政策，這項政策加劇了社會老齡化和勞動力短缺。
Wang Pei’an, vice-minister of the National Health and Family Planning Commission, told reporters that officials had been influenced by research that implied an end to the one-child policy would lead to a spike in births.
中國國家衛生和計劃生育委員會副主任王培安告訴記者，官員們受到一些研究的影響，這些研究表明，終結一胎化政策將導致出生人口激增。
Mr Wang said a study of the nation’s population growth between 2006 and 2008 showed 80 per cent of Chinese couples wanted one boy and one girl. That survey, combined with German research estimating families must average three children to have at least one of each, alarmed family planners, he said.
王培安說，針對2006年至2008年全國人口增長的一項研究顯示，80%家庭都是希望家裏面有兒有女。他表示，那項調查結果，加上德國一項研究估計家庭必須平均生育三個孩子，才能實現有兒有女，使計劃生育官員們震驚。
They instead opted for a phased approach, first allowing two urban parents who were both single children to have a second child, then couples where just one was an only child and finally allowing a second child for all, Mr Wang said. He would not explain why those steps took so long to roll out.
王培安表示，於是，中國選擇了分階段的辦法，首先允許雙方都是獨生子女的城鎮父母生育第二個孩子，然後允許一方是獨生子女的父母生育兩孩，最後推出全面兩孩政策。他沒有解釋爲什麼這些步驟花了這麼久才推出。
“The three steps weren’t public at the time,” he said. “It was very sensitive.”
“‘三步走’政策在當時沒有公開，因爲這個事很敏感，”他說。
Demographers say China’s zealous planners may have overshot amid low birth rates among more prosperous urban Chinese. The concession on a second child where just one parent was a singleton, which was expected to result in 2m more births annually, led to fewer than 1m couples requesting permission last year.
人口學家們表示，在比較富裕的城市人口出生率低迷的大背景下，中國過於激進的計劃生育官員們可能做過了頭。單獨兩孩政策本來預計會每年帶來逾200萬新增出生人口，但去年僅吸引不到100萬夫婦申請準生證。
In February 2008, Zhao Baige, then vice-minister of family planning, told foreign reporters in Beijing that China would ultimately scrap the one-child policy but did not give a timetable. She also said planners were alarmed at the severe imbalance in the numbers of boys and girls in China.
2008年2月，時任國家計生委副主任的趙白鴿在北京對外國記者表示，中國最終會放棄一胎化政策，但她並未給出時間表。她當時還表示，計劃生育官員們對中國男孩和女孩數量嚴重失調感到震驚。
The average number of children that would be born to each woman had decreased to an estimated 1.8 at the time. Now, with every couple allowed two, planners project the average number for women of child-bearing age will rise to 1.93, still below the replacement rate of about 2.1.
當時每個婦女估計會生育的孩子數量已降至1.8個。如今，鑑於所有夫婦都被允許生育兩孩，官員們預計，每個育齡婦女估計會生育的孩子數量將升至1.93個，這仍低於約2.1的替代率。
Mr Wang rejected the suggestion that China should do away with population control policies altogether.
王培安反駁了有關中國應該徹底廢止計劃生育政策的說法。
China’s restrictions prevented further strain on limited natural resources and allowed citizens to enjoy prosperity, full meals and adequate clothing, Mr Wang said — a common defence of the policy. “Development and the interests of the country are still incompatible with a large population,” he said.
王培安稱，中國實行的限制防止了有限的自然資源受到更大壓力，並且讓國民享受富裕，豐衣足食——這是對計劃生育政策的常見辯詞。他表示，發展和國家的利益仍然與龐大的人口不相容。
Couples in most of the rest of east Asia, as well as in western Europe, have voluntarily chosen to have fewer children as living conditions improve and costs rise, without resorting to China’s recipe of punitive fines, forced abortions, involuntary sterilisation, or removal of out-of-plan children by the state.
隨着生活條件改善和育兒成本上升，東亞其它多數國家以及西歐的夫婦自願地選擇少生孩子，而根本不需要採用中國那些對策：懲罰性的罰款、強迫墮胎、非自願絕育，或者弄死超生兒。
