加州大旱考驗綠洲神話

LOS ANGELES — For more than a century, California has been the state where people flocked for a better life — 164,000 square miles of mountains, farmland and coastline, shimmering with ambition and dreams, money and beauty. It was the cutting-edge symbol of possibility: Hollywood, Silicon Valley, aerospace, agriculture and vineyards.

洛杉磯——一個多世紀來，加利福尼亞一直吸引着人們紛至沓來，追尋更美好的生活——16.4萬平方英里的山區、農田和海岸線，閃耀着野心和夢想、金錢和美女。它是一個迷人的象徵，代表着種種機會：好萊塢、硅谷、航空航天業、農業和葡萄園。

But now a punishing drought — and the unprecedented measures the state announced to compel people to reduce water consumption — is forcing a reconsideration of whether the aspiration of untrammeled growth that has for so long been this state's driving engine has run against the limits of nature. The 25 percent cut in water consumption ordered by Gov. Jerry Brown raises fundamental questions about what life in California will be like in the years ahead, and even whether this state faces the prospect of people leaving for wetter climates — assuming, as Brown and other state leaders do, that this marks a permanent change in the climate, rather than a particularly severe cyclical drought.

人們希望它不受約束地發展，長期以來，這一直是推動該州增長的動力，但現在，嚴重的乾旱——以及前所未有的措施，該州宣佈要強制大家減少用水量——讓人不得不重新考慮，這個願望是否已經達到了大自然的極限。州長傑裏·布朗(Jerry Brown)下令削減25%的用水量，這提出了根本性的問題：如果像布朗和該州其他領導人假設的那樣，這不是一次特別嚴重的週期性乾旱，而是標誌着氣候發生永久性的改變，那麼加州未來幾年的生活會是什麼樣？人們是否甚至會離開加州，前往氣候更溼潤的地方？

This state has survived many a catastrophe before — and defied the doomsayers who have regularly proclaimed the death of the California dream — as it emerged, often stronger, from the challenges of earthquakes, an energy crisis and, most recently, a budgetary collapse that forced years of devastating cuts in spending. These days, the economy is thriving, the population is growing, the state budget is in surplus, and development is exploding from Silicon Valley to San Diego; the evidence of it can be seen in the construction cranes dotting the skylines of Los Angeles and San Francisco. But even California's biggest advocates are wondering whether the severity of this drought, now in its fourth year, is going to force a change in the way the state does business.

加州以前也經歷過很多災難——而且也有很多災難預言者經常宣佈“加州夢”已成泡影——但當它從挑戰中恢復時，加州往往會變得更強大；這些挑戰包括地震、能源危機，以及較近期的預算危機，迫使他們不得不以極大的幅度削減支出。如今加州經濟蓬勃發展，人口不斷增長，預算也有盈餘，從硅谷到聖地亞哥，很多地方都出現爆炸式增長；點綴在洛杉磯和舊金山天際線的塔吊，就是這種現象的明證。但是，這場旱災目前已進入第四個年頭，就連加州最熱烈的擁護者都在猜測，它的嚴重程度是否會迫使該州改變它的運轉方式。

Can Los Angeles continue to dominate as the country's capital of entertainment and glamour, and Silicon Valley as the center of high tech, if people are forbidden to take a shower for more than five minutes and water bills become prohibitively expensive? Will tourists worry about coming? Will businesses continue their expansion in places like San Francisco and Venice?

如果居民的洗澡時間不準超過五分鐘，水費賬單高得離譜，洛杉磯還能維持“美國娛樂和魅力之都”的地位嗎，硅谷還會繼續是高科技中心嗎？遊客會望而卻步嗎？公司會繼續在舊金山和威尼斯這樣的地方擴張嗎？

“Mother Nature didn't intend for 40 million people to live here,” said Kevin Starr, a historian at the University of Southern California who has written extensively about this state. “This is literally a culture that since the 1880s has progressively invented, invented and reinvented itself. At what point does this invention begin to hit limits?”

“大自然母親本沒有打算讓4000萬人住在這裏，”南加州大學(University of Southern California)的歷史學家凱文·斯塔爾(Kevin Starr)說，他撰寫了許多關於加州的文章。“這實際上是一種文化，自19世紀80年代起，它逐步創造並重新創造自己。到哪個點上，這種創造開始觸及極限呢？”

California, Starr said, “is not going to go under, but we are going to have to go in a different way.”

斯塔爾說，加州“不會衰落，但我們要採取不同的方式”。

An estimated 38.8 million people live in California today, more than double the 15.7 million people who lived here in 1960. California's $2.2 trillion economy today is the seventh largest in the world, more than quadruple the $520 billion economy of 1963, adjusted for inflation, and the median household income jumped to an estimated $61,094 in 2013 from $44,772 in 1960, adjusted for inflation.

目前大約有3880萬人居住在加州，比1960年時的1570萬人增加了一倍以上。加州今天的經濟規模爲2.2萬億美元，在全球位列第七，排除通貨膨脹因素之後，相比1963年的5200億美元增長了三倍以上。根據排除通貨膨脹因素後的估算，加州家庭收入中位數已經從1960年的44772美元，增加到2013年的61094美元。

“You just can't live the way you always have,” said Brown, a Democrat who is in his fourth term as governor.

“你不能再沿用一直以來的那種方式了，”布朗說。這已經是這位民主黨州長的第四個任期。

“For over 10,000 years, people lived in California, but the number of those people were never more than 300,000 or 400,000,” Brown said. “Now we are embarked upon an experiment that no one has ever tried: 38 million people, with 32 million vehicles, living at the level of comfort that we all strive to attain. This will require adjustment, this will require learning.”

“人類居住在加州已經有1萬多年，但人數從未超過30萬或40萬，”布朗說。“現在我們在做一個以前從未有人嘗試的實驗：3800萬人，3200萬輛車，過着我們奮鬥而來的舒適日子。需要調整，需要學習。”

This disconnect, as it were, can be seen in places like Palm Springs, in the middle of the desert, where daily per capita water use is 201 gallons — more than double the state average. A recent drive through the community offered a drought-defying tableau of burbling fountains, flowers, lush lawns, golf courses and trees. The smell of mowed lawn was in the air.

這種脫節可以在棕櫚泉這樣的地方看到，它地處沙漠腹地，每天人均用水量爲201加侖——超過該州平均數字的兩倍。不久前驅車穿過這個社區時，你看不到旱災的跡象：漩渦噴泉、鮮花、鬱鬱蔥蔥的草坪、高爾夫球場和樹木。修剪過草坪的氣味在空氣中瀰漫。

But the drought is now forcing change in a place that long identified itself as “America's desert oasis.” Palm Springs has ordered 50 percent cuts in water use by city agencies, and plans to replace the lawns and annual flowers around city buildings. It is digging up the grassy median into town that unfurled before visitors like a carpet at a Hollywood premiere. It is paying residents to replace their lawns with rocks and desert plants, and offering rebates to people who install low-flow toilets.

棕櫚泉多年來一直以“美國的沙漠綠洲”自居，但旱情正在迫使它做出改變。棕櫚泉已經下令，市政機構削減50%的用水，並計劃用別的東西替代市政建築物周圍草坪和一年生花卉。之前在遊客眼前彷彿好萊塢首映式紅毯一般展開的草坪卷，被他們挖了出來。棕櫚泉還付錢給居民，讓他們用石塊和沙漠植物來替代自家的草坪；安裝低流量馬桶的居民，也會獲得補貼。

At the airport that once welcomed winter-chilled tourists with eight acres of turf and flowers, city officials are in the early stages of replacing the grass with cactus, desert bushes and paloverde trees.

機場曾用八英畝的草坪和鮮花歡迎前來這裏享受溫暖氣候的冬季遊客，城市官員正在做一些初步工作，用仙人掌、沙漠灌木和綠皮樹取代這些草坪。

“Years ago the idea was, come to Palm Springs, and people see the grass and the lushness and the green,”said David Ready, the city manager. “We've got to change the way we consume water.”

“前些年的想法是：來到棕櫚泉，人們能看到草坪，又綠又茂盛，”市執行長戴維·瑞迪(David Ready)說。“我們必須改變水資源的消耗方式。”

Richard White, a history professor at Stanford University, said the scarcity of water could result in a decline in housing construction, at a time when there has been a burst of desperately needed residential development in cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco.“It's going to be harder and harder to build new housing without an adequate water supply,” he said. “How many developments can you afford if you don't have water?”

斯坦福大學(Stanford)的歷史學教授理查德·懷特(Richard White)說，缺水會導致住宅施工量減少，而此時，在洛杉磯和舊金山這樣的城市，人們對住宅開發的需要相當迫切。“沒有足夠的供水，修建新的住宅就會越來越難，“他說。“如果沒有水，你能負擔得起多少房屋的開發成本呢？”

Mayor Eric Garcetti of Los Angeles, pointing to Brown's executive order and his own city's success in reducing water consumption, said he was confident that the state would find ways to deal with an era of reduced water supplies, in a way that would permit it to continue to grow and thrive.

在談到布朗的行政命令，以及洛杉磯在降低水耗方面的成功時，該市市長埃裏克·加希提(Eric Garcetti)認爲加州可以想出辦法，應對一個供水減少的時代，並且同時保持繁榮昌盛。他聲稱自己很有信心。

“We have to deal with a new normal,” Garcetti said. “That said, do we have enough water to sustain life here? Absolutely. Do we have enough water to grow economically? Absolutely.”

“我們必須面對一個新常態，”加希提說。“話雖如此，我們是否有足夠的水維持生命？當然有。我們是否有足夠的水來發展經濟？絕對有。”

“Cities that are much drier and truly desert — Phoenix, Las Vegas — have shown the ability to have economic growth,” he said.

“有些城市非常乾燥，地處真正的沙漠，比如拉斯維加斯，鳳凰城。事實已證明，這些城市也能實現經濟增長，”他說。

The critical question is the extent to which Brown has succeeded in persuading people here to shake long-held habits and assumptions.

關鍵的問題是，布朗能在多大程度上說服這裏的人，改變長久以來的習慣和假設。

“I'm not going to stop watering,” said Matthew Post, 45, referring to the gardens around his Benedict Canyon home. “The state does not know how to arrange the resources they have and so we have to pay for it,” he said. “They say that they will raise the prices because there is a drought, but when the drought ends, will they reduce the prices?”

“我不會停止澆水的，”45歲的本尼迪克特峽谷居民馬修·波斯特(Matthew Post)說。他指的是其住宅周圍的花園。“這個州不知道如何安排自己的資源，卻讓我們來付出代價，”他說。“他們說因爲旱災，所以會提高水價，但旱情結束時，他們會降低水價嗎？”

The governor's executive order mandates a 25 percent overall reduction in water use throughout the state, to be achieved with varying requirements in different cities and villages. Much of it is expected to be done by imposing new restrictions on lawn watering.

州長的行政命令要求全州的用水量總體減少25%，但是在不同的城市和鄉村，要求是不同的。按照預期，這25%的節水指標有相當一部分要靠限制草坪灌溉來實現。

But even a significant drop in residential water use will not move the consumption needle nearly as much as even a small reduction by farmers. The 25 percent reduction does not apply to farms. Of all the surface water consumed in the state, roughly 80 percent is earmarked for the agricultural sector.

但是對於節水效果而言，住宅用水量下降得再多，也比不過農業用水的一點點減少。節水25%的行政命令不涵蓋農場。該州消耗的所有地表水中，大約有80%被指定用於農業。

“The big question is agriculture, and there are difficult trade-offs that need to be made,” said Katrina Jessoe, assistant professor of agricultural and resource economics at the University of California at Davis.

“最大的問題是農業，加州必須對一些難以取捨的東西加以取捨，”加州大學戴維斯分校的農業和資源經濟學助理教授卡特里娜·傑索(Katrina Jessoe)說。

State officials signaled that reductions in water supplies for farmers were likely, and there is also likely to be increased pressure on the farms to move away from certain water-intensive crops — like almonds.

州政府官員暗示可能會減少對農民的供水量，而且也可能會施加更大壓力，讓農場逐步減少某些耗水量大的作物的種植，比如杏仁。

Mayor Robert Silva of Mendota, in the heart of the agricultural Central Valley, said unemployment among farmworkers had soared as the soil turned to crust and farmers left half or more of their fields fallow. Many people are traveling 60 or 70 miles to look for work, Silva said, and families are increasingly relying on food donations. “You can't pay the bills with free food,” he said. “Give me some water, and I know I can go to work, that's the bottom line.”

門多塔市位於農業區“中央山谷”的心臟地帶，市長羅伯特·席爾瓦(Robert Silva)說，農場工人失業率出現了飆升，因爲土壤乾燥起殼，至少一半的土地已經休耕。很多人前往60或70英里之外的地方去找工作，席爾瓦說，農業家庭越來越多地靠別人捐贈的食物過日子。“你無法用免費的食物支付賬單，”他說。“給我一些水，我就可以去工作，這是最低限度的要求。”

Bill Melzer, 72, a bond broker walking his dog on a sunny morning in Golden Gate Park in San Francisco, said he was worried about the drought, about the prospect of higher fines for using too much water and about what might happen to the agriculture industry. But he said he was not worried about the future of his state.

72歲的比爾·梅爾澤(Bill Melzer)是債券經紀人，一個陽光明媚的上午，他在舊金山的金門公園遛狗。梅爾澤表示，他很擔心乾旱，擔心以後用水過多會被處以更高的罰款，擔心農業可能會發生哪些變化。但他說自己不擔心加州的未來。